Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026No. 41Morning editionNumbers through Tue, Nov. 3Hot StoveFirst spring game in 107 days
15 finals around the world5 roster moves6-min readPress time 18:24 CETHeadlines: 1/20 feeds failed
In this editionArizona Fall LeagueTonightAround the WorldHot StoveStat Lab FundamentalsOn this dayInsideLast Nightp. 2Stat Labp. 3The Wirep. 4Around the Webp. 5
The Whiff
Six at-bats from a dramatic game, one at a time. Make your call before each one plays out.
Play before you read on: the pages below can give the score away.
Arizona Fall League
Rafters 10, Javelinas 11 (AFL, 10, walk-off)
Rafters 10, Javelinas 11 (AFL, 10, walk-off). Red Sox: traded LHP Eduardo Rivera to Cardinals. Stat Lab Fundamentals: Outs and innings: how a game is counted.
- 4.94 Drama Index, Game of the Night
- 15 finals around the world
- Countdown: first spring game Fri, Feb. 19 (in 107 days) · Opening Day Thu, March 25
- Stat Lab Fundamentals #2: Outs and innings: how a game is counted
Tonight
Guasave at Jalisco
- League Mexican Pacific League
- First pitch Thu 02:30 CET
- Guasave 44%
- Jalisco 56%
- Leones at Tiburones · Thu 00:00 CET · Tiburones 56%
- Bravos at Navegantes · Thu 00:00 CET · Navegantes 54%
- Tigres at Cardenales · Thu 00:00 CET · Cardenales 58%
- Caribes at Aguilas · Thu 00:00 CET · Caribes 56%
Around the World
- KBO: Lions 7, Wiz 8 (Korean Series)
- LIDOM: Toros 4, Leones 6 (walk-off) ★★★★★ · Gigantes 3, Estrellas 5 ★★★ · Tigres 3, Aguilas 8 ★★
- LVBP: Bravos 7, Navegantes 11 ★★★★ · Caribes 16, Aguilas 12 ★★★ · Tiburones 9, Leones 4 ★★
- LMP: Culiacan 5, Hermosillo 4 (10) ★★★★★ · Mazatlan 8, Mexicali 10 ★★★★★ · Navojoa 6, Obregon 7 (walk-off) ★★★★ · Los Mochis 4, Nayarit 5 ★★★★ · Guasave 4, Jalisco 6 ★★★★
- AFL: Solar Sox 5, Desert Dogs 10 ★★ · Saguaros 8, Scorpions 0 (shutout) ★
| Team | W | L | Pct | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones | 10 | 4 | .714 | – |
| Tigres | 9 | 5 | .643 | 1.0 |
| Gigantes | 7 | 7 | .500 | 3.0 |
| Estrellas | 6 | 7 | .462 | 3.5 |
| Toros | 5 | 9 | .357 | 5.0 |
| Aguilas | 4 | 9 | .308 | 5.5 |
| Team | W | L | Pct | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caribes | 15 | 4 | .789 | – |
| Cardenales | 11 | 5 | .688 | 2.5 |
| Tigres | 10 | 7 | .588 | 4.0 |
| Bravos | 10 | 8 | .556 | 4.5 |
| Tiburones | 8 | 11 | .421 | 7.0 |
| Leones | 7 | 10 | .412 | 7.0 |
| Navegantes | 6 | 13 | .316 | 9.0 |
| Aguilas | 5 | 14 | .263 | 10.0 |
| Team | W | L | Pct | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guasave | 14 | 4 | .778 | – |
| Mexicali | 12 | 6 | .667 | 2.0 |
| Hermosillo | 10 | 7 | .588 | 3.5 |
| Culiacan | 10 | 8 | .556 | 4.0 |
| Jalisco | 10 | 8 | .556 | 4.0 |
| Obregon | 9 | 9 | .500 | 5.0 |
| Mazatlan | 7 | 11 | .389 | 7.0 |
| Los Mochis | 6 | 11 | .353 | 7.5 |
| Nayarit | 6 | 12 | .333 | 8.0 |
| Navojoa | 5 | 13 | .278 | 9.0 |
Hot Stove
Red Sox: traded LHP Eduardo Rivera to Cardinals
- Age 23
- 2026 10.0 IP, 6.30 ERA, 9.1% K-BB
- WAR 0.1
Also: Cardinals: traded Juan García · Tigers: RJ Petit returned and 2 more
Stat Lab Fundamentals
Lesson 2 · How the Game Flows
Outs and innings: how a game is counted
Lesson 2 of 42
On this day
World Series Game 7: Diamondbacks 3, Yankees 2
The Daily Whiff · Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026 Page 2
Last Night
Game of the Night: Rafters 10, Javelinas 11 (AFL, 10, walk-off)
- Drama Index 4.94 ★★★★★ · 2 lead changes · Javelinas came back from 2 down · 10 innings · peak leverage 5.21 (bottom 9th)
- Top WPA: Ike Irish +0.41 (batter) · Carter Graham +0.40 (batter) · Matthew Ellis +0.31 (batter)
- Bottom WPA: Cleiber Maldonado -0.76 (pitcher) · Francis Peña -0.34 (pitcher) · Braxton Bragg -0.32 (pitcher)
Watch: Gameday (MLB.com)
| Inning | Matchup | Result | Win probability | WPA | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bot 9th | Matthew Ellis vs. Cleiber Maldonado | Single | PEJ 30% → 64% | +0.34 | 4.86 |
| Bot 10th | Carter Graham vs. Cleiber Maldonado | Single | PEJ 70% → 100% | +0.30 | 3.37 |
| Top 5th | Jack O’Dowd vs. Braxton Bragg | Home Run | SRR 46% → 72% | +0.26 | 1.23 |
The Daily Whiff · Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026 Page 3
Stat Lab
Stat Lab Fundamentals · Lesson 2: Outs and innings: how a game is counted
Nobody times a baseball game. The defense counts, and three outs end a half-inning, whatever the score. Javelinas and Rafters played 10 innings on November 3, which means a lot of counting to three.
The idea. Baseball has no clock; it counts outs. A team bats until the defense makes three of them, and that ends a half-inning. The two halves, the visitors batting in the top and the home team in the bottom, make an inning, and a regulation game is nine of them. Most outs are a strikeout, a caught fly ball, a force out or a tag; the next lessons take the last two apart. Outs also measure pitchers, because each one is a third of an inning: a line of 6.2 innings pitched means six and two-thirds.
The math. Every inning gives each team 3 outs to make, so 10 innings × 3 = 30 outs a side, and 60 in all, if both teams batted in every inning. A nine-inning game is 27 outs a side, 54 in all. Here the 1 extra inning added 6 more outs to the 54 of a full game. The home team can bat in fewer innings: here it was Javelinas, and a home team that leads after the top of the 9th never bats in it. Javelinas won on a walk-off, so the last inning stopped before the third out.
The scale. The scale runs from one out, a third of an inning, to 27 outs for each side in a full game. A pitcher who goes six innings has recorded 18 outs, and one who leaves with two outs in the seventh has recorded 20, written 6.2 rather than 6.67: the digit after the point counts outs, never tenths.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- Outs are not runs. A turn at bat ends on outs, never on runs, however many a team scores.
- A game can end before the third out. When the home team goes ahead in the bottom of the ninth or any later inning, the game stops on the spot.
- Weather can stop a game early. It is official after five full innings, or four and a half when the home team is ahead; before that it is not.
Try it. Find the line score of a game the home team won in nine innings and look at the bottom of the ninth. A game the home team led after the top of the ninth shows an X there instead of a number: it never batted.
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: out · MLB Glossary: innings pitched · MLB Glossary: regulation game
Check yourself
- Q1. Javelinas and Rafters played 10 innings. At most how many outs could each team make?
- Q2. The home team leads after the top of the ninth. Does it bat in the bottom half?
- Q3. A pitcher’s line says 6.2 innings pitched. How many outs did he record?
Show answers
- A1. 10 × 3 = 30. A home team that wins on a walk-off stops short of three outs in the last inning, and one that already leads never bats in it.
- A2. No. It has already won, so the bottom of the ninth is not played.
- A3. 20: six full innings are 18 outs, plus two more. The .2 means two outs, not two tenths.
The Daily Whiff · Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026 Page 4
The Wire
Transaction Wire
- Marlins: released RHP Bradley Blalock · MLB Trade Rumors
Age 25 · 2026: 11.1 IP, 5.56 ERA, 16.7% K-BB · -0.2 WAR - Blue Jays: signed RHP Feremi Suriel to a minor league deal
The Daily Whiff · Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026 Page 5
Around the Web
News
- Yankees news: Skubal linked to Yanks — Yahoo Sports
- 1968 NPB Draft: The Greatest Class Ever? — JapanBall
- Glew: Jenkins became first Canadian to win Cy Young Award 55 years ago today — Canadian Baseball Network
- Offseason expectations for the Diamondbacks — Yahoo Sports
Transactions & Rumors
- MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest Now Open — MLB Trade Rumors
- Cubs Outright Tyler Austin — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Prospects · Listen (6)
Analysis
- Class of 2027 MLB Free Agents: Who’s Signing Where? (Position-by-Position Preview) — Just Baseball
- Mariners Manage — Baseball Musings
- Can the Cardinals Count on Riley O’Brien To Be Their Closer in 2027? — Just Baseball
- Cup of Coffee: November 3, 2026 — Cup of Coffee (subscription)
Prospects
- 2026 Kansas City Royals Org Prospect Team — Prospects Live
Listen
- Ian Happ is a Free Agent! Plus, The Brewers are World Champs — The Compound · 61 min
Terms in this edition
Drama Index: Our own measure of how much a game kept both sides guessing: the total of every swing in win probability over the game, divided by 100. A game that one team controls from the first inning scores low; a game full of lead changes and late swings scores high.
Leverage Index (LI): How much the next plate appearance can swing win probability, compared with an average plate appearance. 1.0 is average; 2.0 means twice the usual stakes.
Win Probability Added (WPA): How much one play changed a team’s chance of winning. The batter is credited with the change and the pitcher is charged the same amount with the opposite sign; add up a player’s plays and you get his WPA for a game or a season.
Out: What the defense records to end a half-inning: three outs and the batting team is done. Most outs are a strikeout, a caught fly ball, a force out or a tag.
Inning: One turn at bat for each team: the visitors bat in the top half, the home team in the bottom half, and each half ends at three outs. A regulation game is nine innings.
Innings Pitched (IP): The outs a pitcher recorded, divided by three. Box scores write the leftover outs after a dot, so 44.2 means 44 innings and two outs (44 2/3), not 44 and two tenths.
Walk-off: A play in the bottom of the ninth or of an extra inning that puts the home team ahead and ends the game on the spot, so the winners get to walk off the field.
Sources & Notes
Built automatically from MLB Stats API and MyKBO Stats data; numbers through Nov. 3, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. How this site works