Astros, Phillies clinch; White Sox advance, Yankees advance
Sun, Oct. 4 · Week of Sept. 27-Oct. 3 · 27 games · 3-min read
The Week at a Glance
By the numbers: 27 games · 209 runs · 69 HR · 2 extra-inning games · 4 one-run games · 5 shutouts · 0 walk-offs
Extremes: longest: Dodgers 5, Giants 1 (10), Sun Sept. 27 · most runs: D-backs 4, Padres 9, Sun Sept. 27
Clinched: Astros (AL West) · Phillies (wild card)
Eliminated: Rangers · D-backs
Team of the week: White Sox 4-0, +12 run differential, streak W4
Grand slams: Ben Rice (NYY), Tue Sept. 29
Biggest comeback: Nationals from 3 down: Mets 4, Nationals 6, Sun Sept. 27
Game of the Week: Phillies 4, Braves 3 (10)
Wed Sept. 30 · Drama Index 4.70 ★★★★★ · 2 lead changes · stakes: postseason · 10 innings
Above the middle line the Braves were favored, below it the Phillies.
Inning
Matchup
Result
Win probability
WPA
LI
Top 10th
Alec Bohm vs. Didier Fuentes
Home Run
PHI 40% → 81%
+0.41
1.35
Top 8th
Bryce Harper vs. Dylan Lee
Home Run
PHI 26% → 50%
+0.24
2.14
Bot 7th
Drake Baldwin vs. Cristopher Sánchez
Double
ATL 65% → 86%
+0.21
3.09
The three biggest swings.
Slugfest Superlatives
Player
Detail
When
Best start
Drew Rasmussen (TB)
+0.60 WPA over 26 batters, innings 1-8
vs. NYY, Sat Oct. 3
Best relief outing
Andrew Painter (PHI)
+0.45 WPA over 12 batters, innings 8-10, entered at LI 1.78
vs. ATL, Wed Sept. 30
Biggest hit
Austin Riley (ATL)
home run, bottom 8th, 2-3 → 5-3, +0.64 WPA
vs. PHI, Tue Sept. 29
Toughest week at the plate
Justin Crawford (PHI)
-0.37 WPA over 11 plate appearances
4 games
Leaderboards
Batter
Team
WPA
PA
G
Austin Riley
Braves
+0.39
21
5
Alec Bohm
Phillies
+0.38
17
4
Vinnie Pasquantino
Royals
+0.33
4
1
Andrés Chaparro
Nationals
+0.29
4
1
Sean Murphy
Braves
+0.27
11
3
Batting WPA, Sept. 27-Oct. 3
Pitcher
Team
WPA
BF
G
Drew Rasmussen
Rays
+0.60
26
1
Andrew Painter
Phillies
+0.45
12
1
Anthony Kay
White Sox
+0.36
30
3
Cam Schlittler
Yankees
+0.35
22
1
Tyler Mahle
Braves
+0.34
28
1
Pitching WPA, Sept. 27-Oct. 3
Team
W-L
RS
RA
Diff
White Sox
4-0
20
8
+12
Dodgers
2-0
10
4
+6
Brewers
2-0
9
6
+3
Mariners
1-0
7
3
+4
Blue Jays
1-0
5
1
+4
Best records, Sept. 27-Oct. 3
The Race
Division
Leader
Chaser
Lead a week ago → now
Leader’s week
Magic #
AL West
Astros
Rangers
tied → 1
1-0
clinched
Division races that were open a week ago.
Team
W-L
Week
Sept. 26
Sept. 27
Yankees
93-68
0-0
+10
+9.5
Red Sox
87-75
0-1
+4
+3
White Sox
84-78
1-0
cut line
cut line
AL wild card: games ahead of (+) or behind (−) the third spot.
Team
W-L
Week
Sept. 26
Sept. 27
Padres
91-71
1-0
+3
+3
Cubs
89-73
1-0
+1
+1
Phillies
88-74
1-0
cut line
cut line
D-backs
86-76
0-1
-1
-2
NL wild card: games ahead of (+) or behind (−) the third spot.
Team
Race
Place
Week
Rangers
AL West
1st → 2nd
0-1
Biggest moves.
The Bracket
AL Wild Card Series: White Sox at Astros, White Sox win 2-0 (2 games this week)
AL Wild Card Series: Red Sox at Yankees, Yankees win 2-0 (2 games this week)
NL Wild Card Series: Phillies at Braves, Braves win 2-1 (3 games this week)
NL Wild Card Series: Cubs at Padres, Padres win 2-0 (2 games this week)
AL Division Series: Yankees at Rays, Rays lead 1-0 (1 game this week)
AL Division Series: White Sox at Guardians, White Sox lead 1-0 (1 game this week)
NL Division Series: Padres at Brewers, Brewers lead 1-0 (1 game this week)
NL Division Series: Braves at Dodgers, Dodgers lead 1-0 (1 game this week)
Sources & Notes
Built automatically from MLB Stats API data for the US game days Sept. 27-Oct. 3, 2026 (27 games); win probability, WPA and leverage cover plate appearances only. How this site works
