Sat, Oct. 3 · 4 games · Stat Lab #10: K-BB%: the best quick pitching stat · 8-min read
Press time 16:37 CEST · Final 4/4 · Statcast: posted
- Last night: 4 final
- Game of the Night: Padres 2, Brewers 3 · Drama 3.61 ★★★★
- Division Series: NYY-TB: Rays lead 1-0 · CWS-CLE: White Sox lead 1-0 · SD-MIL: Brewers lead 1-0 · ATL-LAD: Dodgers lead 1-0
- Tonight: 2 games · first pitch 22:00 CEST
- Stat Lab #10: K-BB%: the best quick pitching stat
- Jump to: Glance · Tonight · Scoreboard · Bracket · Game of the Night · Watch · Performers · Statcast · Stat Lab · Seen · Wire · World · Web · Terms · Sources
Last Night at a Glance
- AL Division Series Game 1: White Sox 3, Guardians 0 · White Sox lead 1-0
- NL Division Series Game 1: Braves 3, Dodgers 5 · Dodgers lead 1-0
- AL Division Series Game 1: Yankees 0, Rays 1 · Rays lead 1-0
- NL Division Series Game 1: Padres 2, Brewers 3 · Brewers lead 1-0
- 10+ strikeouts: Drew Rasmussen (TB) 10 K
- Shutouts: White Sox 3, Guardians 0 · Yankees 0, Rays 1
Tonight (CEST)
Sun, Oct. 4 · 2 games · 1 starts before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 16:37 CEST
| Matchup | Start CEST (ET) | Series | Away SP | Home SP | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD 91-71 @ MIL 103-59 | 22:00 ● (4:00 p.m.) | NLDS G2 of 5 MIL leads 1-0 | Michael King 3.21 · 4.13 · 11.8% · 185.0 | Logan Henderson 2.47 · 3.32 · 24.5% · 98.1 | — |
| ATL 94-68 @ LAD 100-62 | Mon 02:00 (8:00 p.m.) | NLDS G2 of 5 LAD leads 1-0 | TBD | Blake Snell 1.90 · 1.72 · 22.5% · 42.2 | — |
Scoreboard
| Matchup | Final | Drama | Decisions | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD @ MIL | 2-3 | 3.61 ★★★★ | W Hall · L Morejon · S Megill | Box · Savant |
| CWS @ CLE | 3-0 | 1.96 ★★ | W Hudson · L Messick · S Taylor | Box · Savant |
| ATL @ LAD | 3-5 | 1.88 ★★ | W Skubal · L Mederos · S Phillips | Box · Savant |
| NYY @ TB | 0-1 | 1.64 ★★ | W Rasmussen · L Cole · S Baker | Box · Savant |
The Bracket
Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)
- AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
- AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
- NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
- NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.
Division Series (best of five)
- AL: Yankees at Rays: Rays lead 1-0 · Game 2: Tue, Oct. 6, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).
- AL: White Sox at Guardians: White Sox lead 1-0 · Game 2: Mon, Oct. 5, 23:00 CEST (5:00 p.m. ET).
- NL: Padres at Brewers: Brewers lead 1-0 · Game 2: Sun, Oct. 4, 22:00 CEST (4:00 p.m. ET).
- NL: Braves at Dodgers: Dodgers lead 1-0 · Game 2: Mon, Oct. 5, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).
The whole postseason so far, with every Daily: Postseason hub.
Game of the Night: Padres 2, Brewers 3
- Drama Index 3.61 ★★★★ · 1 lead change · Brewers came back from 2 down · peak leverage 4.81 (top 7th)
- Top WPA: Trevor Megill +0.29 (pitcher) · William Contreras +0.22 (batter) · Aaron Ashby +0.19 (pitcher)
- Bottom WPA: Jackson Merrill -0.32 (batter) · Cooper Pratt -0.19 (batter) · Fernando Tatis Jr. -0.16 (batter)
Watch: condensed game, 22 min · recap, 3 min (MLB.com)
| Inning | Matchup | Result | Win probability | WPA | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bot 7th | William Contreras vs. Adrian Morejon | Home Run | MIL 52% → 76% | +0.23 | 0.82 |
| Bot 3rd | Jackson Chourio vs. Robbie Ray | Home Run | MIL 35% → 53% | +0.18 | 1.51 |
| Top 7th | Jackson Merrill vs. DL Hall | Flyout | SD 54% → 41% | -0.12 | 4.81 |
Watch
- White Sox 3, Guardians 0 · condensed game, 14 min (MLB.com)
- Braves 3, Dodgers 5 · condensed game, 16 min (MLB.com)
- Yankees 0, Rays 1 · condensed game, 14 min (MLB.com)
Top Performers
| Starter | Game | IP | H | R (ER) | BB | K | Pitches | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | TB vs. NYY | 8.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 101 | 92 |
| Tarik Skubal | LAD vs. ATL | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 94 | 66 |
| Dylan Dodd | ATL @ LAD | 3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 47 | 58 |
| Gerrit Cole | NYY @ TB | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 82 | 54 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | MIL vs. SD | 4.0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 88 | 54 |
| Batter | Team | Line | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Contreras | MIL | 1-for-3, HR, 1 RBI, BB | +0.22 |
| Teoscar Hernández | LAD | 2-for-4, HR, 2 RBI | +0.20 |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | 2-for-4, HR, 2 RBI | +0.17 |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | 2-for-4, HR, 2 RBI, SB | +0.16 |
| Luis Campusano | SD | 1-for-3, 1 RBI, BB | +0.10 |
Statcast Corner
- 173 tracked balls in play, 44% hard-hit (95+ mph), 14 barrels
- 80 pitches at 100+ mph from 6 pitchers
| Category | Player | Detail | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastest pitch | Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) | 104.8 mph (169 km/h) four-seamer to Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD @ MIL, top 1 |
| Unluckiest out | Freddie Freeman (LAD) | line drive out, xBA .934, 95.5 mph (154 km/h), caught by SS Ha-Seong Kim | ATL @ LAD, bot 6 |
| Hardest-hit ball | Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 113.3 mph (182 km/h) home run off Robbie Ray | SD @ MIL, bot 3 |
| Longest home run | Munetaka Murakami (CWS) | 440 ft (134 m), 112.2 mph (181 km/h) | CWS @ CLE, top 4 |
Stat Lab · Lesson 10: K-BB%: the best quick pitching stat
Jacob Misiorowski faced 18 batters in a 3-2 Brewers win over the Padres last night and struck out six of them. Over the season he has struck out 37.9% of his hitters and walked 6.6%. Subtract one from the other and you get 31.3%, his K-BB%, third among pitchers with 40-plus innings. If you could know only one number about a pitcher, this would be a strong choice.
The idea. Strikeout rate (K%) is strikeouts divided by batters faced; walk rate (BB%) is walks divided by batters faced. K-BB% is the first minus the second. Strikeouts and walks depend far less on fielders and luck than hits do, and they settle within a few hundred batters, while ERA can swing on a handful of bloops. Batters, not innings, is the right base: strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) reward a pitcher who lets hitters reach, because each extra runner brings one more batter to strike out.
The math. K% = 252 ÷ 665 = 37.9%. BB% = 44 ÷ 665 = 6.6%. K-BB% = 37.9 − 6.6 = 31.3%, the same as (252 − 44) ÷ 665. Last night alone: (6 − 1) ÷ 18 = 28%, which means little: 18 batters is no sample at all.
The scale. The league as a whole sits at 13.2% this season; as a rough guide, 20% or better is excellent and under 10% is below average. Among the 389 pitchers with 40-plus innings, Jacob Misiorowski’s 31.3% ranks third. In that group, K-BB% and ERA have a correlation of −0.53, K-BB% and FIP −0.74: negative, because a higher K-BB% tends to come with a lower ERA. ERA also depends on balls in play and defense, while FIP is partly built from strikeouts and walks, so it tracks K-BB% more closely.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- It ignores what happens when the ball is hit, home runs included, so a pitcher who limits hard contact can beat his K-BB%.
- Even 665 batters leaves some noise, though K% and BB% settle faster than most pitching stats.
- Role matters. Jacob Misiorowski is a starter, and relievers who throw full effort for an inning post many of the most extreme numbers, so compare starters with starters.
Try it. Keep a tally for one pitcher in tonight’s game: batters faced, strikeouts, walks. Work out his K-BB% for the night and compare it with his season figure. One outing can wander a long way from it.
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: strikeout rate · MLB Glossary: walk rate · FanGraphs Library: sample size
Check yourself
- Q1. Jacob Misiorowski has 252 strikeouts and 44 walks in 665 batters faced. What is his K-BB%?
- Q2. Why does K-BB% line up more closely with FIP than with ERA?
- Q3. Two pitchers each strike out nine batters per nine innings. Can their strikeout rates differ?
Show answers
- A1. 31.3%: a K% of 37.9 minus a BB% of 6.6.
- A2. FIP is built from strikeouts, walks, hit batters and home runs, so it shares most of its ingredients with K-BB%. ERA also depends on balls in play, defense and the order in which hits happen.
- A3. Yes. The one who allows more baserunners faces more batters per inning, so the same nine strikeouts are a smaller share of his batters.
Seen Last Night: Fielder’s choice
Fielder’s choice. The Brewers went after a different runner in the top of the 2nd of the Padres-Brewers game, and Jake Cronenworth reached first on a fielder’s choice as a run scored.
He is on base, but the scorebook gives him no hit and an at-bat, so his average and his OBP both drop. The run that came home can still earn him an RBI, as long as no error was involved.
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: scorekeeping
Transaction Wire
- Padres: RHP Walker Buehler to the paternity list (1.5 WAR this season)
- Yankees: status change for LHP Ryan Weathers (2.5 WAR this season)
- Dodgers: status change for LHP Justin Wrobleski (1.9 WAR this season)
More moves (23)
- Braves: status change for CF DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
- Braves: status change for DH Dominic Smith
- Braves: status change for LF Lane Thomas
- Braves: status change for RHP AJ Smith-Shawver
- Braves: status change for RHP JR Ritchie
- Braves: status change for SS Luke Williams
- Brewers: status change for C Bo Naylor
- Brewers: status change for RHP Bryse Wilson
- Brewers: status change for RHP Garrett Stallings
- Dodgers: status change for 2B Alex Freeland
- Dodgers: status change for DH Josue De Paula
- Dodgers: status change for LF Alex Call
- Dodgers: status change for LHP Jack Dreyer
- Dodgers: status change for RHP Landon Knack
- Dodgers: status change for RHP Paul Gervase
- Guardians: status change for RHP Slade Cecconi
- Padres: status change for RHP Randy Vásquez
- Rays: status change for RHP Casey Legumina
- Rays: status change for RHP Manuel Rodríguez
- White Sox: status change for RHP Huascar Brazobán
- White Sox: status change for RHP Tyler Davis
- Yankees: status change for 3B Amed Rosario
- Yankees: status change for LF Max Schuemann
Around the World
- NPB (Japan): Tigers 4, Carp 6 · Buffaloes 0, Golden Eagles 6 (shutout) · Dragons 3, Swallows 1 · BayStars 5, Giants 2 · Hawks 1, Marines 2 (walk-off)
- KBO (Korea): Tigers 5, Twins 4 · Heroes 7, Eagles 2 · Giants 0, Wiz 5 (shutout) · Landers 1, Dinos 13 · Bears 4, Lions 6
- CPBL (Taiwan): Brothers 3, Guardians 0 (shutout) · Hawks 5, Monkeys 7 · Dragons 3, Lions 5
- Arizona Fall League: Rafters 9, Desert Dogs 4 · Saguaros 9, Scorpions 3 · Solar Sox 6, Javelinas 7 (walk-off)
Around the Web
Last Night’s Games
- Padres 2, Brewers 3 — Padres-Brewers NLDS Game 2 FAQ (4 p.m. ET, FS1/FOX One) (MLB.com)
- White Sox 3, Guardians 0 — Yet to trail this postseason, White Sox march into Cleveland and claim ALDS Game 1 (MLB.com)
- Braves 3, Dodgers 5 — Braves-Dodgers NLDS Game 2 FAQ (8 p.m. ET, FS1/FOX One) (MLB.com)
- Yankees 0, Rays 1 — Rockin’ Trop puts Yanks, Schlittler on notice for Game 2 with largest crowd in 16 years (MLB.com)
News
- Contreras comes up clutch as Crew captures Game 1 win in NLDS — MLB.com
- Division Series Game 1 winners and losers: Austin Wells’ decision dooms Yankees; Brewers saved by… a roof? — CBS Sports
- Miz comes out firing with 104.8 mph first pitch to set new record — MLB.com
- What were the MLB playoffs scores and results from yesterday? Game 1 takeaways — The Athletic (subscription)
Transactions & Rumors
- 2026-27 Offseason Outlook Series — MLB Trade Rumors
- Yankees Hope To Retain Pitching Coach Matt Blake — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (7)
Analysis
- Drew Rasmussen Does Very Rude Things to the Yankees in ALDS Game 1 — FanGraphs
- Just Baseball’s 2026 AL and NL Awards: MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year — Just Baseball
- What’s Next for Wild Card Losers? — Pitcher List
- The Bill James World Series Prediction System, 2026 Edition — Baseball Prospectus (subscription)
Listen
- MLB GAME NIGHT: Drew Rasmussen has eight-inning no-hit bid vs Yankees as Divisional Round kicks off — Locked On MLB · 32 min
- Effectively Wild Episode 2539: BAC in Action — Effectively Wild · 29 min
- Starkville | The Voices of Baseball: Tom Hamilton and Len Kasper Join Starkville — Rates & Barrels · 48 min
Terms in This Post
Drama Index · Leverage Index (LI) · Win Probability Added (WPA) · Hard-Hit Rate (HardHit%) · Barrel · every term in the Glossary
Sources & Notes
Built automatically from MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, NPB.jp, MyKBO Stats and CPBL Stats data; numbers through Oct. 3, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. Highlight videos link to MLB.com. How this site works