Fri, Oct. 2 · 4 finals around the world · 4 roster moves · Stat Lab #9: Pythagorean record: which teams over- and under-achieved · 6-min read
Press time 11:18 CEST
- Division Series: NYY-TB: Not started · CWS-CLE: Not started · SD-MIL: Not started · ATL-LAD: Not started
- Tonight: 4 games · first pitch 19:00 CEST
- Stat Lab #9: Pythagorean record: which teams over- and under-achieved
- Jump to: Tonight · Preview · Bracket · Stat Lab · Wire · World · Web · Sources
Tonight (CEST)
Sat, Oct. 3 · 4 games · 2 start before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 11:17 CEST
| Matchup | Start CEST (ET) | Series | Away SP | Home SP | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS 84-78 @ CLE 85-77 | 19:00 ● (1:00 p.m.) | ALDS G1 of 5 | Hagen Smith (1/18 GS) 1.29 · 2.35 · 22.7% · 28.0 | Parker Messick 2.56 · 3.07 · 19.3% · 186.1 | — |
| ATL 94-68 @ LAD 100-62 | 22:00 ● (4:00 p.m.) | NLDS G1 of 5 | TBD | Tarik Skubal 2.72 · 2.51 · 25.6% · 158.2 | — |
| NYY 93-68 @ TB 98-64 | Sun 00:30 (6:30 p.m.) | ALDS G1 of 5 | Gerrit Cole 3.61 · 3.93 · 20.4% · 127.0 | Drew Rasmussen 2.67 · 2.82 · 21.2% · 172.0 | — |
| SD 91-71 @ MIL 103-59 | Sun 02:30 (8:30 p.m.) | NLDS G1 of 5 | Robbie Ray 3.59 · 4.69 · 8.0% · 165.2 | Jacob Misiorowski 1.80 · 2.17 · 31.3% · 174.2 | — |
Postseason Preview
Division Series (best of five) · first pitch Sat, Oct. 3, 19:00 CEST (1:00 p.m. ET).
White Sox at Guardians
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Pythag W-L | Last 10 | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | 85-77 | +11 | 82-80 | 8-2 | L1 |
| White Sox | 84-78 | +56 | 87-75 | 7-3 | W1 |
Game 1: Sat, Oct. 3, 19:00 CEST (1:00 p.m. ET) · run-differential edge: White Sox by 45.
Braves at Dodgers
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Pythag W-L | Last 10 | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 100-62 | +201 | 102-60 | 8-2 | W3 |
| Braves | 94-68 | +116 | 93-69 | 5-5 | L1 |
Game 1: Sat, Oct. 3, 22:00 CEST (4:00 p.m. ET) · run-differential edge: Dodgers by 85.
Yankees at Rays
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Pythag W-L | Last 10 | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 98-64 | +86 | 90-72 | 5-5 | L1 |
| Yankees | 93-68 | +138 | 96-65 | 5-5 | W1 |
Game 1: Sun, Oct. 4, 00:30 CEST (6:30 p.m. ET) · run-differential edge: Yankees by 52.
Padres at Brewers
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Pythag W-L | Last 10 | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 103-59 | +214 | 103-59 | 8-2 | W5 |
| Padres | 91-71 | +41 | 85-77 | 8-2 | W2 |
Game 1: Sun, Oct. 4, 02:30 CEST (8:30 p.m. ET) · run-differential edge: Brewers by 173.
The Bracket
Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)
- AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
- AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
- NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
- NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.
Division Series (best of five)
- AL: Yankees at Rays: Not started · Game 1: Sun, Oct. 4, 00:30 CEST (6:30 p.m. ET).
- AL: White Sox at Guardians: Not started · Game 1: Sat, Oct. 3, 19:00 CEST (1:00 p.m. ET).
- NL: Padres at Brewers: Not started · Game 1: Sun, Oct. 4, 02:30 CEST (8:30 p.m. ET).
- NL: Braves at Dodgers: Not started · Game 1: Sat, Oct. 3, 22:00 CEST (4:00 p.m. ET).
Stat Lab · Lesson 9: Pythagorean record: which teams over- and under-achieved
Two records that don’t add up: the Cubs are 89-73 with a +147 run differential, and the Reds are 75-87 with a −160. One of those clubs has been unlucky and one fortunate, and a simple formula measures how much.
The idea. Over a long season, runs scored and runs allowed, the run differential, predict a team’s record remarkably well, and they predict its future record better than its actual wins and losses do. Bill James noticed that the relationship looks like the Pythagorean theorem, and his Pythagorean record follows: expected winning percentage = RS² ÷ (RS² + RA²). A team far from that line has usually won or lost an unusual share of close games, which depends on bullpen luck and timing and rarely carries over. That is why analysts treat a big gap as luck that fades until proven otherwise.
The math. For the Cubs: 850² = 722,500 and 703² = 494,209, so 722,500 ÷ (722,500 + 494,209) = .594. Over 162 games that is 96.2 expected wins, so the expected record is 96-66 against the real 89-73: 7.2 wins short. The refined exponent of 1.83 gives 94.9, nearly the same answer. A rule of thumb falls out of the same table: across all 30 clubs this season, every 10.8 runs of differential bought roughly one win above .500.
The scale. Of the 30 clubs, 10 sit within three wins of their Pythagorean record, the normal spread. The Cubs’ gap of 7.2 wins is notable. At the other end, the Reds (75-87, run differential −160) are 11.2 wins ahead of theirs. Next season, both are far more likely to look like their run differential than like their record.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- Some teams beat the formula for a reason: a lockdown bullpen wins close games more often, and a team that piles up runs in blowouts looks better on paper than it is. Those effects are worth a few wins, not 7.
- Early in a season run differential is noisy too: in April, one 15-2 blowout distorts it for weeks.
- It describes the past. Injuries, trades and call-ups can make a team better or worse than its season totals suggest.
- One-run games and extra innings are where the luck hides; check a team’s record in them before blaming or crediting the manager.
Try it. Take your favorite team’s runs scored and allowed from the standings and compute its Pythagorean record: RS² ÷ (RS² + RA²), times games played. Is it over- or under-achieving, and by how much?
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: Pythagorean winning percentage · FanGraphs Library: expected wins and losses · MLB Glossary: run differential
Check yourself
- Q1. The Cubs have scored 850 and allowed 703. What winning percentage does the Pythagorean formula expect?
- Q2. A team finishes 10 wins above its Pythagorean record. What do you expect from it next season?
- Q3. Why square the runs instead of simply dividing runs scored by total runs?
Show answers
- A1. .594: 722,500 ÷ (722,500 + 494,209).
- A2. A record much closer to its run differential. The extra wins usually came from close games, which don’t repeat reliably.
- A3. Squaring stretches the gap and matches real records better: a team that outscores its opponents wins more than proportionally often. The best-fitting exponent is a little below 2, about 1.83.
Transaction Wire
- Mariners: claimed 1B Michael Toglia off waivers from Reds · MLB Trade Rumors
- Brewers: 1B Andrew Vaughn back from the 10-day IL (1.6 WAR this season) · MLB Trade Rumors
- Phillies: recalled RHP Orion Kerkering from Lehigh Valley IronPigs
- Phillies: recalled LHP Kyle Backhus from Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Around the World
- NPB (Japan): Giants 1, Swallows 5 · Hawks 4, Marines 3
- CPBL (Taiwan): Dragons 2, Guardians 1 (10) · Monkeys 3, Hawks 7
Around the Web
News
- The Arizona Fall League begins today! Here’s what you need to know — MLB.com
- Ohtani’s injuries lingering into postseason, and even he can’t pinpoint what’s behind them — NBC Sports
- A plea to the Brewers this postseason: Act like the final boss, not ‘The Little Engine That Could’ — CBS Sports
- Dodgers tickets still available for NLDS Game 1 with triple-digit temps expected — The Athletic (subscription)
Transactions & Rumors
- Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2027 — MLB Trade Rumors
- Should the Phillies trade Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber? Why blockbuster deal doesn’t make sense — CBS Sports
- D-Backs’ Executives Speak About Relationship With Ketel Marte — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (7)
Analysis
- I-90 Blue Bloods Clash: Guardians vs. White Sox ALDS Preview — FanGraphs
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: NLDS Preview — Just Baseball
- Expert FAAB Roundup: TGFBI 2026 — Baseball Prospectus (subscription)
- Cup of Coffee: October 2, 2026 — Cup of Coffee (subscription)
Listen
- ATLANTA MOVES ON – Where Does Chris Sale Fit in Division Series Plans for Braves? — Locked On MLB · 29 min
- Braves Have a Dodgers Problem & Padres-Brewers Could Be a Classic — Rates & Barrels · 57 min
- MLB Division Series Preview: Braves-Dodgers, Yankees-Rays, Padres-Brewers & White Sox-Guardians — Baseball Bar-B-Cast · 66 min
Sources & Notes
Assembled automatically each morning by The Daily Whiff’s software from MLB Stats API data. How this site works
Season numbers are through Oct. 2, 2026; advanced metrics from the MLB Stats API (FIP, xFIP, WAR, wRC+) can run a day behind. Data: MLB Advanced Media, used under its individual, non-commercial terms.
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