Thu, Oct. 1 · 1 game · Stat Lab #8: Exit velocity and launch angle · 7-min read
Press time 16:49 CEST · Final 1/1 · Statcast: posted
- Last night: 1 final
- Game of the Night: Phillies 2, Braves 6 · Drama 1.26 ★
- Division Series: NYY-TB: Not started · CWS-CLE: Not started · SD-MIL: Not started · ATL-LAD: Not started
- Stat Lab #8: Exit velocity and launch angle
- Jump to: Glance · Scoreboard · Bracket · Game of the Night · Performers · Statcast · Stat Lab · Seen · Wire · World · Web · Terms · Sources
Last Night at a Glance
- NL Wild Card Series Game 3: Phillies 2, Braves 6 · Braves win 2-1
Scoreboard
| Matchup | Final | Drama | Decisions | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ ATL | 2-6 | 1.26 ★ | W Holmes · L Nola | Box · Savant |
The Bracket
Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)
- AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
- AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
- NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
- NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.
Division Series (best of five)
- AL: Yankees at Rays: Not started · Game 1: Sun, Oct. 4, 00:30 CEST (6:30 p.m. ET).
- AL: White Sox at Guardians: Not started · Game 1: Sat, Oct. 3, 19:00 CEST (1:00 p.m. ET).
- NL: Padres at Brewers: Not started · Game 1: Sun, Oct. 4, 02:30 CEST (8:30 p.m. ET).
- NL: Braves at Dodgers: Not started · Game 1: Sat, Oct. 3, 22:00 CEST (4:00 p.m. ET).
Game of the Night: Phillies 2, Braves 6
- Drama Index 1.26 ★ · 0 lead changes · peak leverage 1.90 (bottom 1st)
- Top WPA: Michael Harris II +0.19 (batter) · Ray Kerr +0.13 (pitcher) · Grant Holmes +0.08 (pitcher)
- Bottom WPA: Aaron Nola -0.22 (pitcher) · Bryson Stott -0.09 (batter) · Justin Crawford -0.06 (batter)
Watch: condensed game, 18 min · recap, 3 min (MLB.com)
| Inning | Matchup | Result | Win probability | WPA | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bot 1st | Michael Harris II vs. Aaron Nola | Home Run | ATL 59% → 79% | +0.21 | 1.90 |
| Bot 4th | Ozzie Albies vs. Zack Wheeler | Home Run | ATL 86% → 94% | +0.08 | 0.58 |
| Top 5th | Justin Crawford vs. Grant Holmes | Grounded Into DP | PHI 9% → 4% | -0.05 | 1.17 |
Top Performers
| Starter | Game | IP | H | R (ER) | BB | K | Pitches | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Kerr | ATL vs. PHI | 3.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 47 | 58 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI @ ATL | 1.2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 38 | 28 |
| Batter | Team | Line | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | ATL | 1-for-3, HR, 3 RBI | +0.19 |
| Ozzie Albies | ATL | 1-for-3, HR, 2 RBI, BB | +0.07 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | 2-for-3, BB | +0.07 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | 1-for-3, BB | +0.04 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | 1-for-3, HR, 1 RBI, BB | +0.03 |
Statcast Corner
| Category | Player | Detail | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unluckiest out | Bryan De La Cruz (PHI) | line drive out, xBA .837, 105.8 mph (170 km/h), caught by CF Michael Harris II | PHI @ ATL, top 7 |
| Fastest pitch | Jhoan Duran (PHI) | 101.1 mph (163 km/h) four-seamer to Ozzie Albies | PHI @ ATL, bot 8 |
| Longest home run | Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 419 ft (128 m), 106.0 mph (171 km/h) | PHI @ ATL, bot 4 |
| Hardest-hit ball | Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 108.2 mph (174 km/h) single off Ray Kerr | PHI @ ATL, top 1 |
Stat Lab · Lesson 8: Exit velocity and launch angle
Kyle Schwarber had two hits in a 6-2 Phillies loss to the Braves last night, but one box score says little about how well he hits the ball. Judged only by how hard and at what angle the ball left his bat, his batted balls earned an xwOBAcon of .484. The league sits at about .359.
The idea. Exit velocity is the speed of the ball off the bat, in miles per hour; 95 mph or more counts as hard-hit. Launch angle is its direction up or down, in degrees (see the table). The best results come from hard contact in the sweet spot, 8 to 32 degrees. The ideal pairing is a barrel: a speed and angle that has historically produced at least a .500 average and 1.500 slugging. Barrels start at 98 mph around 26 to 30 degrees, and the window widens as the speed rises. xwOBAcon gives each batted ball the average wOBA value of past balls hit at that speed and angle, then averages those values over all of a hitter’s batted balls.
The math. Start with his batted balls: 581 at-bats minus 220 strikeouts leaves 361, roughly his balls in play (sacrifice flies are not counted). They averaged .484; the league, weighted the same way, is about .359: .125 above average per batted ball. Divide by the wOBA scale (1.24 this season), which converts wOBA points into runs, and multiply by the batted balls: .125 ÷ 1.24 × 361 = 36.4. His contact alone was worth roughly 36.4 runs more than average contact.
| Launch angle | Batted ball |
|---|---|
| Under 10 degrees | Ground ball |
| 10 to 25 degrees | Line drive |
| 25 to 50 degrees | Fly ball |
| Over 50 degrees | Popup |
The scale. About .359 is average contact this season. Among the 267 hitters with 300-plus plate appearances, 24% reach .400, and Kyle Schwarber’s .484 ranks eighth. These are wOBA points per batted ball, so they run well above overall wOBA, which counts strikeouts too.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- xwOBAcon leaves out strikeouts and walks. Kyle Schwarber strikes out in 31% of his plate appearances, and only 51% end with a ball in play. Add the strikeouts and walks back and his xwOBA is .363.
- Speed and angle leave out direction. A 100 mph grounder right at the shortstop and one down the line get the same grade, and so do fly balls in big and small ballparks.
- One average hides the mix: many barrels plus many weak popups can match a steady diet of line drives. Check barrel and hard-hit rates too.
Try it. Many broadcasts show the exit velocity and launch angle after a ball is hit. Tonight, note which balls land in the 8-to-32-degree sweet spot at 95 mph or more, and see how many of them fall for hits.
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: exit velocity · MLB Glossary: launch angle · Baseball Savant: expected stats
Check yourself
- Q1. Kyle Schwarber has 581 at-bats and 220 strikeouts. Roughly how many batted balls does his xwOBAcon grade?
- Q2. Which launch angles make up the sweet spot, and what counts as a hard-hit ball?
- Q3. How can a hitter with an elite xwOBAcon still be only a good hitter overall?
Show answers
- A1. About 361: at-bats minus strikeouts. Sacrifice flies are left out, so the true number is a little higher.
- A2. The sweet spot runs from 8 to 32 degrees; a hard-hit ball leaves the bat at 95 mph or more.
- A3. xwOBAcon ignores strikeouts and walks. If he strikes out often, his great contact comes in fewer plate appearances, and his overall xwOBA ends up lower.
Seen Last Night: Hit by pitch
Hit by pitch. Jonathan Bowlan hit Michael Harris II with a pitch in the bottom of the 7th of the Phillies-Braves game.
A hit-by-pitch is scored like a walk: no at-bat, one more time on base for the batter’s OBP, and a weight of 3 against the pitcher in FIP. Batters who crowd the plate collect a lot of them, and for some it is a small but real part of their on-base skill.
Transaction Wire
- Reds: outrighted 2B Ivan Johnson to Louisville Bats · MLB Trade Rumors
- Yankees: outrighted RHP Alexander Cornielle to FCL Yankees
- Red Sox: status change for LHP Patrick Sandoval (1.3 WAR this season)
- Astros: status change for LHP Steven Okert (1.2 WAR this season)
More moves (41)
- Astros: status change for C Collin Price
- Astros: status change for CF Brice Matthews
- Astros: status change for CF Daulton Varsho
- Astros: status change for CF Jorge Barrosa
- Astros: status change for LF LaMonte Wade Jr.
- Astros: status change for LF Zach Cole
- Astros: status change for LF Zach Dezenzo
- Astros: status change for RHP Alimber Santa
- Astros: status change for RHP Cristian Javier
- Astros: status change for RHP Enyel De Los Santos
- Astros: status change for RHP Ethan Pecko
- Astros: status change for RHP Kai-Wei Teng
- Astros: status change for RHP Ronel Blanco
- Cubs: status change for 2B James Triantos
- Cubs: status change for 3B BJ Murray Jr.
- Cubs: status change for CF Justin Dean
- Cubs: status change for DH Kevin Alcántara
- Cubs: status change for LHP Braxton Garrett
- Cubs: status change for LHP Caleb Thielbar
- Cubs: status change for LHP Jordan Wicks
- Cubs: status change for RHP Edward Cabrera
- Cubs: status change for RHP Ethan Roberts
- Cubs: status change for RHP Gavin Hollowell
- Cubs: status change for RHP Jayden Murray
- Cubs: status change for RHP Julian Aguiar
- Cubs: status change for RHP Trent Thornton
- Cubs: status change for RHP Tyler Ferguson
- Red Sox: status change for 2B Anthony Seigler
- Red Sox: status change for DH Masataka Yoshida
- Red Sox: status change for DH Mickey Gasper
- Red Sox: status change for DH Romy Gonzalez
- Red Sox: status change for LF Roman Anthony
- Red Sox: status change for LHP Jovani Morán
- Red Sox: status change for LHP Raymond Burgos
- Red Sox: status change for LHP Tyler Samaniego
- Red Sox: status change for OF Kristian Campbell
- Red Sox: status change for RHP Jedixson Paez
- Red Sox: status change for RHP Tanner Houck
- Red Sox: status change for RHP Tyron Guerrero
- Red Sox: status change for SS Tsung-Che Cheng
- Royals: outrighted LHP Luke Little to Omaha Storm Chasers · MLB Trade Rumors
Around the World
- NPB (Japan): Fighters 3, Marines 1 · Dragons 1, Carp 5 · Hawks 8, Golden Eagles 2
- KBO (Korea): Eagles 2, Lions 3 · Wiz 7, Tigers 5 · Dinos 7, Bears 9 · Twins 5, Landers 6
- CPBL (Taiwan): Lions 4, Dragons 3 · Monkeys 2, Hawks 1
Around the Web
Last Night’s Games
- Phillies 2, Braves 6 — Unlikely hero pens storybook clinch for Braves (MLB.com)
News
- Harris starts fireworks in hometown early with 3-run blast — MLB.com
- 2026 MLB Playoffs Tracker: Bracket, schedule, results, scores, matchups for AL, NL postseason games — NBC Sports
- How major heat wave with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees could affect Dodgers’ NLDS this weekend — CBS Sports
- Yankees vs. Rays ALDS predictions: Ben Rice, Cam Schlittler and the matchups that could decide the series — The Athletic (subscription)
Transactions & Rumors
- Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins — MLB Trade Rumors
- Yankees on to ALDS after Red Sox sweep; Cowboys win trade with Steelers for Joey Porter Jr. — CBS Sports
- Krall Discusses Reds’ Position Player Needs — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (7)
Analysis
- These Braves Are Bound for Glory: Kerr, Harris Punch Ticket to NLDS — FanGraphs
- Five Mariners Who Need To Be Better Next Season — Just Baseball
- Ten Arizona Fall League Players to Watch — Baseball Prospectus (subscription)
- Cup of Coffee: October 1, 2026 — Cup of Coffee (subscription)
Listen
- Unlikely hero helps Braves advance to next round — MLB Morning Lineup · 13 min
- PHILLIES FORCE ATLANTA SHOWDOWN – White Sox, Yankees and Padres Take Care of Business — Locked On MLB · 30 min
- Effectively Wild Episode 2538: No Time Like Late September — Effectively Wild · 106 min
Terms in This Post
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)
An ERA-style number built only from the outcomes a pitcher controls most directly: strikeouts, walks, hit batters and home runs. Balls in play that stay in the park are ignored.
FIP predicts a pitcher’s future ERA better than his past ERA does, because it strips out defense and luck on balls in play.
FIP = (13×HR + 3×(BB + HBP) − 2×K) ÷ IP + constant (a little over 3; recomputed every season from league totals)
Sources & Notes
Assembled automatically each morning by The Daily Whiff’s software from MLB Stats API and Baseball Savant data. How this site works
Season numbers are through Oct. 1, 2026; advanced metrics from the MLB Stats API (FIP, xFIP, WAR, wRC+) can run a day behind. Data: MLB Advanced Media, used under its individual, non-commercial terms; highlight videos link to MLB.com.
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Glossaries: MLB glossary · FanGraphs Library