Wed, Sept. 30 · 4 games · Stat Lab #7: Leverage Index: when a plate appearance matters most · 8-min read
Press time 18:53 CEST · Final 4/4 · Statcast: posted
- Last night: 4 final
- Game of the Night: Phillies 4, Braves 3 (10) · Drama 4.70 ★★★★★
- Wild Card Series: CWS-HOU: White Sox win 2-0 · BOS-NYY: Yankees win 2-0 · PHI-ATL: Tied 1-1 · CHC-SD: Padres win 2-0
- Tonight: 1 game · first pitch Fri 02:00 CEST
- Stat Lab #7: Leverage Index: when a plate appearance matters most
- Jump to: Glance · Tonight · Scoreboard · Bracket · Game of the Night · Watch · Performers · Statcast · Stat Lab · Seen · Wire · World · Web · Sources
Last Night at a Glance
- NL Wild Card Series Game 2: Phillies 4, Braves 3 (10) · Tied 1-1
- AL Wild Card Series Game 2: White Sox 7, Astros 3 · White Sox win 2-0
- AL Wild Card Series Game 2: Red Sox 2, Yankees 9 · Yankees win 2-0
- NL Wild Card Series Game 2: Cubs 1, Padres 4 · Padres win 2-0
- Extra innings: Phillies 4, Braves 3 (10)
Tonight (CEST)
Thu, Oct. 1 · 1 game · none before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 18:53 CEST
| Matchup | Start CEST (ET) | Series | Away SP | Home SP | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI 88-74 @ ATL 94-68 | Fri 02:00 (8:00 p.m.) | NLWC G3 of 3 tied 1-1 | Aaron Nola 4.67 · 4.87 · 15.9% · 175.1 | Ray Kerr (1/9 GS) 1.47 · 3.97 · 13.6% · 18.1 | winner-take-all |
Scoreboard
| Matchup | Final | Drama | Decisions | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ ATL | 4-3 (10) | 4.70 ★★★★★ | W Painter · L Fuentes | Box · Savant |
| CWS @ HOU | 7-3 | 1.95 ★★ | W Kay · L Brown | Box · Savant |
| CHC @ SD | 1-4 | 1.82 ★★ | W Rodriguez · L Gausman · S Miller | Box · Savant |
| BOS @ NYY | 2-9 | 1.61 ★★ | W Fried · L Gray | Box · Savant |
The Bracket
Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)
- AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
- AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
- NL: Phillies at Braves: Tied 1-1 · Game 3: Fri, Oct. 2, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).
- NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.
Division Series (best of five)
- AL: Yankees at Rays: Not started · Game 1: Sun, Oct. 4, 00:30 CEST (6:30 p.m. ET).
- AL: White Sox at Guardians: Not started · Game 1: Sat, Oct. 3, 19:00 CEST (1:00 p.m. ET).
- NL: Padres at Brewers: Not started · Game 1: Sun, Oct. 4, 02:30 CEST (8:30 p.m. ET).
- NL: Los Angeles Dodgers hosts ATL/PHI (slots still open).
Game of the Night: Phillies 4, Braves 3 (10)
- Drama Index 4.70 ★★★★★ · 2 lead changes · Phillies came back from 2 down · 10 innings · peak leverage 6.98 (bottom 10th)
- Top WPA: Andrew Painter +0.45 (pitcher) · Alec Bohm +0.40 (batter) · Tyler Mahle +0.34 (pitcher)
- Bottom WPA: Michael Harris II -0.33 (batter) · Dylan Lee -0.28 (pitcher) · Didier Fuentes -0.23 (pitcher)
Watch: condensed game, 22 min · recap, 3 min (MLB.com)
| Inning | Matchup | Result | Win probability | WPA | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 10th | Alec Bohm vs. Didier Fuentes | Home Run | PHI 40% → 81% | +0.41 | 1.35 |
| Top 8th | Bryce Harper vs. Dylan Lee | Home Run | PHI 26% → 50% | +0.24 | 2.14 |
| Bot 7th | Drake Baldwin vs. Cristopher Sánchez | Double | ATL 65% → 86% | +0.21 | 3.09 |
Watch
- White Sox 7, Astros 3 · condensed game, 17 min (MLB.com)
- Cubs 1, Padres 4 · condensed game, 16 min (MLB.com)
- Red Sox 2, Yankees 9 · condensed game, 20 min (MLB.com)
Top Performers
| Starter | Game | IP | H | R (ER) | BB | K | Pitches | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | ATL vs. PHI | 7.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 95 | 71 |
| Max Fried | NYY vs. BOS | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 98 | 65 |
| Cristopher Sánchez | PHI @ ATL | 6.2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 116 | 55 |
| Nick Pivetta | SD vs. CHC | 3.1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 66 | 51 |
| Sonny Gray | BOS @ NYY | 4.2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 70 | 49 |
| Batter | Team | Line | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | PHI | 2-for-4, HR, 1 RBI, BB | +0.40 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | 2-for-5, HR, 2 RBI | +0.22 |
| Gavin Sheets | SD | 1-for-1, HR, 2 RBI | +0.17 |
| Willson Contreras | BOS | 2-for-2, HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB | +0.17 |
| Andrew Benintendi | CWS | 1-for-2, 1 RBI, BB | +0.16 |
Statcast Corner
- 200 tracked balls in play, 42% hard-hit (95+ mph), 15 barrels
- 38 pitches at 100+ mph from 6 pitchers
| Category | Player | Detail | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastest pitch | Mason Miller (SD) | 102.7 mph (165 km/h) four-seamer to Ian Happ | CHC @ SD, top 9 |
| Hardest-hit ball | Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 111.7 mph (180 km/h) home run off Dylan Lee | PHI @ ATL, top 8 |
| Unluckiest out | Nick Allen (HOU) | line drive out, xBA .766, 87.2 mph (140 km/h), caught by RF Braden Montgomery | CWS @ HOU, bot 7 |
Stat Lab · Lesson 7: Leverage Index: when a plate appearance matters most
Last night 299 plate appearances carried a Leverage Index, and only one topped 5. The biggest, 6.98, belonged to Dominic Smith against Andrew Painter in the bottom of the 10th, the Braves trailing 4-3 with two outs. He struck out, which ended the game, sealing a 4-3 Phillies win.
The idea. Leverage Index measures how much the next plate appearance can swing the game before a single pitch is thrown. It is built from the same win expectancy tables as WPA: list every way the plate appearance could end, see how far each outcome would move the win probability, and average those moves by how often each outcome happens. Divide by the same figure for an average plate appearance and you have LI: 1.0 is ordinary, 2.0 is double the stakes. Late innings and close scores push it up because they leave less time to undo whatever happens; runners on base push it up because more runs can score on one swing.
The math. Think of LI as a multiplier on the typical swing. Across last night’s 303 plate appearances the average move in win probability was 3.3 points. At an LI of 6.98, the expected move is about 6.98 × 3.3 ≈ 23.0 points, in one direction or the other. The real one: 17.6% → 0.0%, or −17.6. Right in line with what the leverage promised.
The scale. Analysts usually call an LI under 0.85 low leverage and anything over 2 high. Last night 31 of 299 rated plate appearances topped 2.0, and only one reached 5.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- LI describes the moment, not the people in it. It doesn’t know that Dominic Smith is batting or that Andrew Painter is pitching.
- It measures stakes inside one game only. A pennant race or October raises the value of the whole game, and LI ignores that.
- High leverage is not the same as clutch skill. Players don’t reliably rise above their usual level in big spots; see clutch.
- It is the right tool for bullpen decisions: a manager’s best reliever does the most good in the highest-LI spot, and that spot often comes before the ninth inning.
Try it. Next time you watch a close game, call the leverage before each late plate appearance: the score, the inning, the outs and who is on base. If you find yourself leaning forward, it is probably above 2. Then compare your calls with the leverage numbers in the game’s play log.
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: Leverage Index · FanGraphs Library: LI · FanGraphs Library: WPA/LI
Check yourself
- Q1. Why does the same situation (tied, runner on second, one out) carry more leverage in the 9th inning than in the 3rd?
- Q2. Which spot has the higher LI: bases loaded, two outs, home team down a run in the bottom of the 9th, or bases empty, nobody out, tied in the 9th?
- Q3. At an LI of 6.98 and a typical swing of 3.3 points, roughly how big a move in win probability should you expect?
Show answers
- A1. Fewer innings remain to undo the result, so each outcome moves win probability further. Leverage climbs as a close game runs out of outs.
- A2. The first. One swing can win or lose the game on the spot, while the second situation still leaves plenty of ways for the game to go on.
- A3. About 23 points (6.98 × 3.3), in either direction. The actual strikeout moved it −17.6.
Seen Last Night: Sacrifice fly
Sacrifice fly. Matt Olson brought a run home without a hit in the bottom of the 7th of the Phillies-Braves game: a sacrifice fly, worth +2.2 points of win probability to the Braves.
It is one of baseball’s odd scoring rules. A sacrifice fly is not an at-bat, so the batter’s average doesn’t move, yet it counts against his OBP; a sacrifice bunt, the same kind of team play, counts against neither.
Transaction Wire
- Phillies: RHP José Urquidy elected free agency
- Braves: RHP Elieser Hernández elected free agency
- Braves: outrighted RHP Elieser Hernández to Gwinnett Stripers
- Braves: outrighted RHP Ricky Vanasco to Gwinnett Stripers
- Red Sox: status change for 3B Curtis Mead (1.5 WAR this season)
- Orioles: signed RHP Jackson Rees to a minor league deal
- Red Sox: status change for LF Roman Anthony · MLB Trade Rumors
Around the World
- NPB (Japan): Marines 0, Golden Eagles 3 (shutout) · Swallows 0, Tigers 5 (shutout)
- KBO (Korea): Twins 3, Landers 4 (walk-off) · Wiz 3, Tigers 2 · Dinos 5, Bears 6 (walk-off) · Eagles 2, Lions 6 · Heroes 6, Giants 8
- CPBL (Taiwan): Lions 4, Guardians 2 · Dragons 5, Monkeys 3 · Brothers 7, Hawks 1
Around the Web
Last Night’s Games
- Phillies 4, Braves 3 (10) — 4 big takeaways after Phillies even thrilling NL Wild Card Series (MLB.com)
- White Sox 7, Astros 3 — Houston? No problem! White Sox end 21-year wait with sweep (MLB.com)
- Cubs 1, Padres 4 — Cubs mull what could have been after abrupt Wild Card exit (MLB.com)
- Red Sox 2, Yankees 9 — Fried’s gem sends Yanks to ALDS confident they can lean on rotation (MLB.com)
News
- Gray frustrated by hook, wanted Tracy to ‘live or die with me’ — MLB.com
- 2026 MLB Playoffs Tracker: Bracket, schedule, results, scores, matchups for AL, NL postseason games — NBC Sports
- Wild Card Series Game 2 winners and losers: Yankees, Padres, White Sox advance; Alec Bohm saves the Phillies — CBS Sports
- Yankees bounce Boston again, routing their rivals and advancing to face Rays in ALDS — The Athletic (subscription)
Transactions & Rumors
- Offseason Outlook: New York Mets — MLB Trade Rumors
- MLBTR Podcast: Wild Card Rosters And What’s Next For The Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Pirates — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (7)
Analysis
- Two Huge Innings Catapult White Sox Into ALDS — FanGraphs
- It’s Time for Red Sox Fans to Leave Cam Schlittler Alone — Just Baseball
- What They’re Saying ’26: Robert Gasser, Cooper Pratt Edition — Baseball Prospectus (subscription)
- Cup of Coffee: September 30, 2026 — Cup of Coffee (subscription)
Listen
- 3 Division Series set; Phils-Braves head to Game 3 — MLB Morning Lineup · 11 min
- A KING AND TWO ACES FOR THE WILD CARD – Michael King, Cam Schlittler and Chris Sale Come Up Big — Locked On MLB · 29 min
- MLB Wild Card LIVE: Day 2: Recap & Reactions — Rates & Barrels · 65 min
Sources & Notes
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