Tue, Sept. 29 · 4 games · Stat Lab #6: Bullpen leverage: closer vs. fireman · 9-min read
Press time 17:02 CEST · Final 4/4 · Statcast: posted
- Last night: 4 final
- Game of the Night: Phillies 3, Braves 5 · Drama 3.79 ★★★★
- Wild Card Series: CWS-HOU: White Sox lead 1-0 · BOS-NYY: Yankees lead 1-0 · PHI-ATL: Braves lead 1-0 · CHC-SD: Padres lead 1-0
- Tonight: 4 games · first pitch 20:00 CEST
- Stat Lab #6: Bullpen leverage: closer vs. fireman
- Jump to: Glance · Tonight · Scoreboard · Bracket · Game of the Night · Watch · Performers · Statcast · Stat Lab · Seen · Wire · World · Web · Terms · Sources
Last Night at a Glance
- NL Wild Card Series Game 1: Phillies 3, Braves 5 · Braves lead 1-0
- AL Wild Card Series Game 1: White Sox 6, Astros 3 · White Sox lead 1-0
- AL Wild Card Series Game 1: Red Sox 0, Yankees 9 · Yankees lead 1-0
- NL Wild Card Series Game 1: Cubs 0, Padres 8 · Padres lead 1-0
- Multi-homer games: Ben Rice (NYY) 2 HR
- Grand slams: Ben Rice (NYY), inning 8
- 10+ strikeouts: Cam Schlittler (NYY) 10 K
- Shutouts: Red Sox 0, Yankees 9 · Cubs 0, Padres 8
Tonight (CEST)
Wed, Sept. 30 · 4 games · 1 starts before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 17:01 CEST
| Matchup | Start CEST (ET) | Series | Away SP | Home SP | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI 88-74 @ ATL 94-68 | 20:00 ● (2:00 p.m.) | NLWC G2 of 3 ATL leads 1-0 | Cristopher Sánchez 2.91 · 2.80 · 21.7% · 207.0 | Tyler Mahle 3.99 · 3.99 · 14.8% · 149.0 | ATL can clinch; PHI faces elimination |
| CWS 84-78 @ HOU 81-81 | 23:00 (5:00 p.m.) | ALWC G2 of 3 CWS leads 1-0 | Sean Burke 3.34 · 3.62 · 17.2% · 172.1 | Hunter Brown 3.19 · 3.77 · 15.3% · 107.1 | CWS can clinch; HOU faces elimination |
| BOS 87-75 @ NYY 93-68 | Thu 02:00 (8:00 p.m.) | ALWC G2 of 3 NYY leads 1-0 | Sonny Gray 2.72 · 3.47 · 15.1% · 169.0 | Max Fried 2.80 · 2.65 · 16.4% · 112.2 | NYY can clinch; BOS faces elimination |
| CHC 89-73 @ SD 91-71 | Thu 04:00 (10:00 p.m.) | NLWC G2 of 3 SD leads 1-0 | Kevin Gausman 4.51 · 3.74 · 18.3% · 177.2 | Nick Pivetta 2.86 · 2.21 · 24.3% · 34.2 | SD can clinch; CHC faces elimination |
Scoreboard
| Matchup | Final | Drama | Decisions | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ ATL | 3-5 | 3.79 ★★★★ | W Lee · L Duran · S Iglesias | Box · Savant |
| CWS @ HOU | 6-3 | 1.83 ★★ | W Hicks · L Blubaugh | Box · Savant |
| BOS @ NYY | 0-9 | 1.66 ★★ | W Schlittler · L Tolle | Box · Savant |
| CHC @ SD | 0-8 | 1.08 ★ | W King · L Boyd | Box · Savant |
The Bracket
Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)
- AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox lead 1-0 · Game 2: Wed, Sept. 30, 23:00 CEST (5:00 p.m. ET).
- AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees lead 1-0 · Game 2: Thu, Oct. 1, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).
- NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves lead 1-0 · Game 2: Wed, Sept. 30, 20:00 CEST (2:00 p.m. ET).
- NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres lead 1-0 · Game 2: Thu, Oct. 1, 04:00 CEST (10:00 p.m. ET).
Game of the Night: Phillies 3, Braves 5
- Drama Index 3.79 ★★★★ · 3 lead changes · peak leverage 4.97 (bottom 8th)
- Top WPA: Austin Riley +0.51 (batter) · J.T. Realmuto +0.30 (batter) · Ozzie Albies +0.27 (batter)
- Bottom WPA: Jhoan Duran -0.51 (pitcher) · Didier Fuentes -0.20 (pitcher) · Bryan De La Cruz -0.14 (batter)
Watch: condensed game, 19 min · recap, 3 min (MLB.com)
| Inning | Matchup | Result | Win probability | WPA | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bot 8th | Austin Riley vs. Jhoan Duran | Home Run | ATL 29% → 93% | +0.64 | 4.97 |
| Top 7th | J.T. Realmuto vs. Didier Fuentes | Triple | PHI 31% → 68% | +0.37 | 3.69 |
| Bot 6th | Ozzie Albies vs. Alex McFarlane | Triple | ATL 58% → 79% | +0.21 | 1.81 |
Watch
- White Sox 6, Astros 3 · condensed game, 17 min (MLB.com)
- Red Sox 0, Yankees 9 · condensed game, 20 min (MLB.com)
- Cubs 0, Padres 8 · condensed game, 14 min (MLB.com)
Top Performers
| Starter | Game | IP | H | R (ER) | BB | K | Pitches | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King | SD vs. CHC | 7.0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 97 | 82 |
| Cam Schlittler | NYY vs. BOS | 6.1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 117 | 82 |
| Chris Sale | ATL vs. PHI | 6.1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 95 | 68 |
| Jesús Luzardo | PHI @ ATL | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 77 | 65 |
| Payton Tolle | BOS @ NYY | 4.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 83 | 57 |
| Batter | Team | Line | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | ATL | 1-for-3, HR, 3 RBI | +0.51 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | 1-for-3, 3B, 2 RBI | +0.30 |
| Ozzie Albies | ATL | 1-for-2, 3B, 1 RBI, BB | +0.27 |
| Manny Machado | SD | 2-for-3, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, BB | +0.18 |
| Ben Rice | NYY | 4-for-5, 2 HR, 2B, 6 RBI | +0.16 |
Statcast Corner
- 192 tracked balls in play, 35% hard-hit (95+ mph), 16 barrels
- 22 pitches at 100+ mph from 6 pitchers
| Category | Player | Detail | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastest pitch | Jhoan Duran (PHI) | 102.0 mph (164 km/h) four-seamer to Ronald Acuña Jr. | PHI @ ATL, bot 7 |
| Longest home run | Colson Montgomery (CWS) | 432 ft (132 m), 106.0 mph (171 km/h) | CWS @ HOU, top 4 |
| Unluckiest out | Ty France (SD) | line drive out, xBA .803, 97.0 mph (156 km/h), caught by RF Seiya Suzuki | CHC @ SD, bot 1 |
| Hardest-hit ball | Ben Rice (NYY) | 110.3 mph (178 km/h) double off Payton Tolle | BOS @ NYY, bot 1 |
Stat Lab · Lesson 6: Bullpen leverage: closer vs. fireman
The Braves’ biggest bullpen moment last night came in the top of the 7th, not the ninth: by the time Raisel Iglesias took the ball for the ninth, the Leverage Index had fallen to 1.54. Didier Fuentes walked into a 3.60-leverage spot, the Braves leading 2-1 with one out, and faced three batters. Using your best reliever there instead of saving him has a name.
The idea. Relievers are usually slotted by inning: a setup man for the eighth, the closer for the ninth, held for a lead of three runs or fewer so he can collect the save. Leverage Index argues for a different rule: use your best reliever when the game is most on the line, whatever the inning. A tie with runners on in the seventh can carry twice the stakes of a three-run lead in the ninth. Old-school baseball had a name for the pitcher sent into that fire: the fireman. Managers’ trust can be measured too: gmLI is a reliever’s average Leverage Index when he enters a game.
The math. Treat LI as a multiplier on how much a plate appearance can swing the game. Didier Fuentes’ entry came at 3.60; the Braves’ ninth, handed to Raisel Iglesias, began at 1.54, so the earlier spot carried 2.3 times as much at stake. His season gmLI is 1.56, so this was 2.3 times his usual entry. He faced three batters and recorded two outs, allowing two runs; by WPA his outing was worth −19.9 points of win probability to the Braves.
The scale. An LI above 2 counts as high leverage. Of last night’s 29 relief entries, 1 began at 2 or more, and one of those came before the ninth inning. That is why the best bullpens are run by leverage, not by the inning. The Braves’ closer, Raisel Iglesias (34 saves), pitched later, in the 9th at an LI of 1.54.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- LI measures the moment, not the matchup. A manager may choose another reliever because of who is due up, platoon splits or the three-batter minimum.
- Rest is real: a closer used in the seventh may not be available tomorrow, and LI only sees tonight.
- Judge the decision by the leverage when he entered, not by the result: three batters is far too few to grade a pitcher, even if two runs scored.
Try it. In tonight’s close games, note the inning and the score when each team’s best reliever enters, and estimate the leverage: late, close and runners on means high. How often does he get the biggest spot rather than the ninth?
Go deeper: FanGraphs Library: Leverage Index · MLB Glossary: closer · MLB Glossary: relief pitcher
Check yourself
- Q1. Which spot usually carries more leverage: a tie game with runners on second and third and one out in the seventh, or a three-run lead with the bases empty to start the ninth?
- Q2. Didier Fuentes entered at an LI of 3.60. What does that number mean?
- Q3. What does a reliever’s gmLI tell you?
Show answers
- A1. The seventh-inning jam, by a wide margin. A three-run lead in the ninth is won more than nine times in ten almost no matter who pitches; a tie with two runners in scoring position can turn on a single pitch.
- A2. That plate appearance was expected to move win probability about 3.60 times as much as an average one.
- A3. His average Leverage Index when he enters a game: how big the spots are that his manager gives him. Around 1.0 is average; closers and top setup men usually sit well above 1.5.
Seen Last Night: A call under review
A call under review. The review in the top of the 9th of the Cubs-Padres game came at a Leverage Index of 0.01, a low-stakes moment for one.
Challenges are a budget, and good teams spend them like one. In the ABS challenge system a team keeps a challenge when it wins and loses it when it doesn’t, so the smart play is to save them for pitches that matter: late, close, with runners on. Leverage is the right yardstick for that decision, for managers’ replay challenges as much as for balls and strikes.
Transaction Wire
- Braves: designated RHP Ricky Vanasco for assignment
- Yankees: designated RHP Alexander Cornielle for assignment
- Cubs: outrighted LHP Antoine Kelly to Iowa Cubs · MLB Trade Rumors
- D-backs: outrighted DH Jesús Sánchez to Reno Aces
- Dodgers: RHP Edgardo Henriquez back from the 15-day IL (1.5 WAR this season)
- Padres: C Rodolfo Durán to the 60-day IL (right forearm)
- Red Sox: RHP Justin Slaten moved to the 60-day IL (right elbow)
- Giants: RF Jung Hoo Lee back from the 10-day IL
More moves (70)
- Astros: status change for C Collin Price
- Astros: status change for CF Jorge Barrosa
- Astros: status change for LF LaMonte Wade Jr.
- Astros: status change for LF Zach Cole
- Astros: status change for LF Zach Dezenzo
- Astros: status change for LHP Steven Okert
- Astros: status change for RHP Alimber Santa
- Astros: status change for RHP Ethan Pecko
- Astros: status change for RHP Kai-Wei Teng
- Blue Jays: 2B Luis Urías back from the 10-day IL
- Blue Jays: signed RHP Siwoo Kwon to a minor league deal
- Braves: designated RHP Elieser Hernández for assignment
- Braves: selected 1B Rowdy Tellez from Gwinnett Stripers
- Braves: selected SS Luke Williams from Gwinnett Stripers
- Braves: status change for DH Kyle Farmer
- Braves: status change for RHP AJ Smith-Shawver
- Braves: status change for RHP JR Ritchie
- Cardinals: RHP Hunter Dobbins back from the 15-day IL
- Cubs: status change for 2B James Triantos
- Cubs: status change for 3B BJ Murray Jr.
- Cubs: status change for CF Justin Dean
- Cubs: status change for DH Kevin Alcántara
- Cubs: status change for LHP Braxton Garrett
- Cubs: status change for LHP Caleb Thielbar
- Cubs: status change for LHP Jordan Wicks
- Cubs: status change for RHP Edward Cabrera
- Cubs: status change for RHP Ethan Roberts
- Cubs: status change for RHP Jayden Murray
- Cubs: status change for RHP Julian Aguiar · MLB Trade Rumors
- Cubs: status change for RHP Trent Thornton
- Cubs: status change for RHP Tyler Ferguson
- Giants: LHP Reiver Sanmartin back from the 15-day IL
- Padres: RHP Joe Musgrove back from the 60-day IL
- Padres: status change for 2B Mason McCoy
- Padres: status change for 2B Sung-Mun Song
- Padres: status change for 3B Gage Workman
- Padres: status change for C Rodolfo Durán
- Padres: status change for DH Will Wagner
- Padres: status change for LHP JP Sears
- Padres: status change for LHP Wandy Peralta
- Padres: status change for RHP Garrett Hawkins
- Padres: status change for RHP Griffin Canning
- Padres: status change for RHP Hunter Stratton
- Padres: status change for RHP Jeremiah Estrada
- Padres: status change for RHP Jhony Brito
- Padres: status change for RHP Randy Vásquez
- Phillies: status change for 2B Luis Arraez
- Phillies: status change for LHP Brooks Raley
- Phillies: status change for RHP Max Lazar
- Red Sox: LHP Garrett Crochet back from the 60-day IL
- Red Sox: status change for LHP Jovani Morán
- Red Sox: status change for LHP Patrick Sandoval
- Red Sox: status change for RHP Tanner Houck
- Royals: RHP Craig Kimbrel back from the bereavement list
- White Sox: status change for C Drew Romo
- White Sox: status change for C Edgar Quero
- White Sox: status change for C Joey Bart
- White Sox: status change for CF Junior Perez
- White Sox: status change for LHP Tyler Schweitzer
- White Sox: status change for RF Rikuu Nishida
- White Sox: status change for RHP Jonathan Cannon
- White Sox: status change for RHP Shane Smith
- White Sox: status change for RHP Tanner McDougal
- White Sox: status change for RHP Trevor Richards
- White Sox: status change for RHP Tyler Davis
- Yankees: CF Trent Grisham back from the 10-day IL
- Yankees: DH Giancarlo Stanton back from the 60-day IL
- Yankees: status change for LHP Tim Hill
- Yankees: status change for RHP Michael Fulmer
- Yankees: status change for RHP Yerry De los Santos
Around the World
- NPB (Japan): Marines 6, Golden Eagles 3 · Buffaloes 1, Lions 2 · Carp 1, Giants 3
- KBO (Korea): Wiz 8, Tigers 5 (10) · Dinos 2, Bears 5 · Twins 1, Landers 7 · Eagles 5, Lions 10 · Heroes 2, Giants 4
Around the Web
Last Night’s Games
- Phillies 3, Braves 5 — Riley flips Game 1 with 8th-inning blast on 99.9 mph pitch from Phillies’ closer (MLB.com)
- White Sox 6, Astros 3 — White Sox only stumble in Game 1? It might have been staged (MLB.com)
- Red Sox 0, Yankees 9 — Red Sox-Yankees AL Wild Card Series Game 2 FAQ (8 ET, NBC/Peacock) (MLB.com)
- Cubs 0, Padres 8 — King, dingers power Padres in G1 rout at frenzied Petco (MLB.com)
News
- Musgrove’s first appearance since ’24 adds to righty’s San Diego legacy — MLB.com
- A’s outfielder Zack Gelof sues Tigers for damages after right knee slammed into Comerica Park fence in 2025 — AP via NBC Sports
- Case Keenum, Bears score ‘MNF’ win over Eagles; MLB Wild Card preview; WNBA awards top rookie — CBS Sports
- MLB Wild Card Series results: Scores, highlights and Game 1 playoff takeaways — The Athletic (subscription)
Transactions & Rumors
- Roman Anthony Leaves ALWCS Game 1 Due To Hand Soreness — MLB Trade Rumors
- NL Injury Notes: Freeman, Henriquez, Elder, Ortiz, Woodruff — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (7)
Analysis
- White Sox Jump on Astros, Hang on for 6-3 Game 1 Victory — FanGraphs
- 2026 World Series Odds — Just Baseball
- Five & Dive Episode 584: Respection Systems — Baseball Prospectus (subscription)
- Cup of Coffee: September 29, 2026 — Cup of Coffee (subscription)
Listen
- Clutch HR, hometown kids and no-hit bid highlight Wild Card openers — MLB Morning Lineup · 14 min
- 2026 PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS – Will this be Milwaukee’s Year? — Locked On MLB · 29 min
- MLB Wild Card Recap: Yankees & Padres Dominate + Braves, White Sox Win Game 1 — Rates & Barrels · 54 min
Terms in This Post
ABS Challenge System (ABS)
New for 2026: the plate umpire still calls every pitch, but the batter, pitcher or catcher can challenge a ball or strike call, and the Automated Ball-Strike system settles it within seconds. Each team starts a game with two challenges and keeps every challenge it wins.
It shrinks the value of catcher framing and gives managers a scarce resource to budget, which is why most teams save their challenges for late, high-leverage spots.
Only the batter, pitcher or catcher can challenge, and they have about two seconds to signal by tapping the helmet or cap.
Sources & Notes
Assembled automatically each morning by The Daily Whiff’s software from MLB Stats API and Baseball Savant data. How this site works
Season numbers are through Sept. 29, 2026; advanced metrics from the MLB Stats API (FIP, xFIP, WAR, wRC+) can run a day behind. Data: MLB Advanced Media, used under its individual, non-commercial terms; highlight videos link to MLB.com.
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