The Daily Whiff

Wild Card Series preview

Mon, Sept. 28 · 6 finals around the world · 35 roster moves · Stat Lab #5: The 12-team bracket: seeds, byes and a best-of-three · 5-min read

Press time 16:54 CEST

Tonight (CEST)

Tue, Sept. 29 · 4 games · 1 starts before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 16:54 CEST

MatchupStart CEST (ET)SeriesAway SPHome SPStakes
PHI
@ ATL		20:00 ●
(2:00 p.m.)		NLWC G1 of 3Jesús Luzardo
2.86 · 2.78 · 23.2% · 179.2		Chris Sale
2.16 · 2.29 · 26.1% · 162.2		—
CWS
@ HOU		23:00
(5:00 p.m.)		ALWC G1 of 3Hagen Smith (1/18 GS)
1.29 · 2.35 · 22.7% · 28.0		AJ Blubaugh (0/64 GS)
3.66 · 4.31 · 13.0% · 96.0		—
BOS
@ NYY		Wed 02:00
(8:00 p.m.)		ALWC G1 of 3Payton Tolle
3.03 · 3.04 · 21.7% · 148.2		Cam Schlittler
1.95 · 2.56 · 25.0% · 193.2		—
CHC
@ SD		Wed 04:00
(10:00 p.m.)		NLWC G1 of 3Matthew Boyd
3.91 · 4.21 · 11.0% · 126.2		Michael King
3.21 · 4.13 · 11.8% · 185.0		—
Prague time (CEST), US Eastern in brackets; final regular-season W-L. SP: announced probable starter (TBD = not yet), season ERA · FIP · K-BB% · IP; a/b GS = starts/games for a pitcher who mostly relieves. Stakes: series score as of this morning. ● = starts before 23:00 CEST.

Postseason Preview

Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed) · first pitch Tue, Sept. 29, 20:00 CEST (2:00 p.m. ET).

Phillies at Braves

White Sox at Astros

Red Sox at Yankees

Cubs at Padres

The Bracket

Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)

  • AL: White Sox at Astros: Not started · Game 1: Tue, Sept. 29, 23:00 CEST (5:00 p.m. ET).
  • AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Not started · Game 1: Wed, Sept. 30, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).
  • NL: Phillies at Braves: Not started · Game 1: Tue, Sept. 29, 20:00 CEST (2:00 p.m. ET).
  • NL: Cubs at Padres: Not started · Game 1: Wed, Sept. 30, 04:00 CEST (10:00 p.m. ET).

Stat Lab · Lesson 5: The 12-team bracket: seeds, byes and a best-of-three

No MLB games were played yesterday, so let’s use the quiet day to learn the map of October. Once the last berths are settled, twelve teams will be sorted into one fixed bracket, and the way it is built shapes every series that follows.

The idea. Twelve teams make the postseason, six per league. The three division winners are seeded 1 to 3 by record, and the three best remaining teams are the Wild Cards, seeds 4 to 6. A division winner always ranks above a Wild Card, even one with a better record. Seeds 1 and 2 get a bye straight into the Division Series. Everyone else starts in the Wild Card Series: best-of-three, every game in the higher seed’s park, 3 against 6 and 4 against 5. The bracket is fixed and never reseeded, so the 1 seed meets the 4-5 winner and the 2 seed meets the 3-6 winner. After that the Division Series is best-of-five, and the League Championship Series and the World Series are best-of-seven.

The math. How random is a short series? Start with one game. By Log5, a .600 team facing a .550 team wins .600 × .450 ÷ (.600 × .450 + .550 × .400) = .551 of the time. Now stretch that into series, with p = .551. Best-of-three: p² + 2p²(1 − p) = 57.6%. Best-of-five: 59.5%. Best-of-seven: 61.0%. Even the better team loses a best-of-three 42% of the time.

The scale. A 55% single-game edge is already a clear favorite by October standards, because every team left is good. That is the real value of the bye: seeds 1 and 2 skip the round that comes closest to a coin flip. Longer series help the better team, but only a little: going from three games to seven lifts the favorite from 58% to 61%.

What it doesn’t tell you:

  • A short series says little about which team is better; don’t read a Wild Card Series upset as proof of anything.
  • The bye isn’t free: the top seeds sit for several days, and whether the rest helps or the layoff hurts is debated, with thin evidence either way.
  • Log5 ignores the starting pitchers, home field and injuries, which matter more over three games than over 162.

Try it. Pick a Division Series matchup you expect, give the favorite your own single-game chance p, and compute its chance to win a best-of-five: p³ × (1 + 3q + 6q²), where q = 1 − p. How much does moving p from 0.55 to 0.60 change the answer?

Go deeper: MLB: 2026 postseason schedule · MLB: the 2026 playoff picture and bracket · MLB.com postseason hub

Check yourself

  • Q1. A division winner with 88 wins and a Wild Card team with 95 wins both reach the postseason. Which is seeded higher?
  • Q2. Why does a 55% single-game favorite win a best-of-seven more often (61%) than a best-of-three (58%)?
  • Q3. Which seeds play in the Wild Card Series, and where?
Show answers
  • A1. The division winner. Division winners take seeds 1 to 3; the best a Wild Card can do is 4.
  • A2. More games give the better team’s edge more chances to show, so luck in any single game matters less. When p is above one half, the chance of winning most of the games grows with the number of games.
  • A3. Seeds 3 to 6 in each league: 3 hosts 6 and 4 hosts 5, with every game at the higher seed’s park.

Transaction Wire

  • Cardinals: claimed RHP Chase Hampton off waivers from Nationals · MLB Trade Rumors
  • White Sox: C Jake Rogers back from the paternity list
  • Orioles: recalled LHP Cade Povich from Norfolk Tides
  • Red Sox: recalled LHP Tyler Samaniego from Worcester Red Sox
  • Red Sox: status change for 3B Curtis Mead (1.5 WAR this season)
  • Red Sox: status change for 2B Anthony Seigler

Also: seven players activated from the injured list

More moves (22)
  • Athletics: recalled LHP Joe Rock from Las Vegas Aviators
  • Athletics: recalled RF Johnathan Rodríguez from Las Vegas Aviators
  • Athletics: recalled RHP Braden Nett from Midland RockHounds
  • Athletics: recalled RHP Hayden Juenger from Las Vegas Aviators
  • Athletics: recalled RHP Henry Baez from Midland RockHounds
  • Athletics: recalled RHP Hunter Bigge from Las Vegas Aviators
  • Athletics: recalled RHP Joey Estes from Las Vegas Aviators
  • Athletics: recalled RHP Kade Morris from Las Vegas Aviators
  • Athletics: recalled RHP Luis Morales from Las Vegas Aviators
  • Athletics: recalled SS Darell Hernaiz from Las Vegas Aviators
  • Orioles: recalled LF Reed Trimble from Norfolk Tides
  • Orioles: recalled LHP Luis De León from FCL Orioles
  • Orioles: recalled RHP Cameron Foster from Norfolk Tides
  • Orioles: recalled RHP Codi Heuer from Norfolk Tides
  • Orioles: recalled RHP Trey Gibson from FCL Orioles
  • Orioles: recalled RHP Yaramil Hiraldo from Norfolk Tides
  • Orioles: recalled RHP Yosver Zulueta from Norfolk Tides
  • Red Sox: recalled DH Romy Gonzalez from Worcester Red Sox
  • Red Sox: recalled OF Kristian Campbell from Worcester Red Sox
  • Red Sox: recalled SS Tsung-Che Cheng from Worcester Red Sox
  • Red Sox: status change for DH Masataka Yoshida
  • White Sox: recalled CF Junior Perez from Charlotte Knights

Around the World

  • NPB (Japan): Carp 4, BayStars 3 · Fighters 8, Marines 3 · Golden Eagles 4, Lions 2
  • CPBL (Taiwan): Lions 7, Monkeys 4 (10) · Hawks 10, Brothers 19 · Dragons 4, Guardians 2

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Sources & Notes

Assembled automatically each morning by The Daily Whiff’s software from MLB Stats API data. How this site works

Season numbers are through Sept. 28, 2026; advanced metrics from the MLB Stats API (FIP, xFIP, WAR, wRC+) can run a day behind. Data: MLB Advanced Media, used under its individual, non-commercial terms.

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