Sun, Sept. 27 · 14 games · Stat Lab #4: The automatic runner, and whether to bunt him to third · 9-min read
Press time 18:51 CEST · Final 14/14 · Statcast: posted
- Last night: 14 final · 1 cancelled
- Game of the Night: Dodgers 5, Giants 1 (10) · Drama 4.30 ★★★★★
- Clinched: Astros (division) · Phillies (wild card)
- Eliminated: Rangers · D-backs
- Stat Lab #4: The automatic runner, and whether to bunt him to third
- Jump to: Glance · Scoreboard · Race · Game of the Night · Watch · Performers · Statcast · Stat Lab · Seen · Wire · World · Web · Sources
Last Night at a Glance
- Clinched: Astros (division) · Phillies (wild card)
- Eliminated: Rangers · D-backs
- Multi-homer games: Andrés Chaparro (WSH) 2 HR · Jonny DeLuca (TB) 2 HR · Alex Bregman (CHC) 2 HR · Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) 2 HR
- Comebacks: Nationals from 3 down: Mets 4, Nationals 6
- Shutouts: Astros 9, Athletics 0
- Extra innings: Dodgers 5, Giants 1 (10)
Scoreboard
| Matchup | Final | Drama | Decisions | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD @ SF | 5-1 (10) | 4.30 ★★★★★ | W Vesia · L Davitt | Box · Savant |
| CLE @ KC | 2-3 | 3.35 ★★★★ | W Pearson · L Peterson · S Erceg | Box · Savant |
| NYM @ WSH | 4-6 | 3.00 ★★★★ | W Dion · L Manaea · S Tolman | Box · Savant |
| CHC @ BOS | 6-2 | 2.89 ★★★ | W Garrett · L Houck · S Rea | Box · Savant |
| ATL @ MIA | 3-5 | 2.74 ★★★ | W Petersen · L Ritchie · S Alcantara | Box · Savant |
| AZ @ SD | 4-9 | 2.68 ★★★ | W Canning · L Martinez | Box · Savant |
| COL @ CWS | 2-4 | 1.82 ★★ | W Kay · L Freeland · S Richards | Box · Savant |
| LAA @ SEA | 3-7 | 1.77 ★★ | W Bazardo · L Kikuchi | Box · Savant |
| PIT @ DET | 4-2 | 1.76 ★★ | W Bachar · L Ryan · S Montgomery | Box · Savant |
| TEX @ MIN | 4-6 | 1.67 ★★ | W Kremer · L Silseth | Box · Savant |
| CIN @ TOR | 1-5 | 1.49 ★ | W Scherzer · L Williamson | Box · Savant |
| TB @ PHI | 3-7 | 1.47 ★ | W Wheeler · L Martinez | Box · Savant |
| STL @ MIL | 4-6 | 1.27 ★ | W Misiorowski · L Pallante · S Drohan | Box · Savant |
| HOU @ ATH | 9-0 | 1.23 ★ | W Pecko · L Basso | Box · Savant |
| BAL @ NYY | Cancelled | — | — |
The Race
| Team | W-L | vs. 3rd wild card |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 93-68 | +9.5 |
| Red Sox | 87-75 | +3 |
| White Sox | 84-78 | cut line |
| Rangers | 80-82 | -4 |
| Orioles | 79-82 | -4.5 |
| Blue Jays | 79-83 | -5 |
| Team | W-L | vs. 3rd wild card |
|---|---|---|
| Padres | 91-71 | +3 |
| Cubs | 89-73 | +1 |
| Phillies | 88-74 | cut line |
| D-backs | 86-76 | -2 |
| If the season ended today |
|---|
| AL: #1 TB bye · #2 CLE bye · #3 HOU v #6 CWS · #4 NYY v #5 BOS |
| NL: #1 MIL bye · #2 LAD bye · #3 ATL v #6 PHI · #4 SD v #5 CHC |
All 30 teams
| Team | W-L | GB | L10 | Strk | RD | Pythag W-L | Clinch | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL East | ||||||||
| TB | 98-64 | — | 5-5 | L1 | +86 | 90-72 | z | |
| NYY | 93-68 | 4.5 | 5-5 | W1 | +138 | 96-65 | w | |
| BOS | 87-75 | 11.0 | 5-5 | L1 | +78 | 90-72 | w | |
| BAL | 79-82 | 18.5 | 6-4 | L1 | -21 | 78-83 | e | |
| TOR | 79-83 | 19.0 | 4-6 | W1 | -46 | 76-86 | e | |
| AL Central | ||||||||
| CLE | 85-77 | — | 8-2 | L1 | +11 | 82-80 | y | |
| CWS | 84-78 | 1.0 | 7-3 | W1 | +56 | 87-75 | w | |
| MIN | 77-85 | 8.0 | 6-4 | W1 | -58 | 75-87 | e | |
| DET | 76-86 | 9.0 | 4-6 | L1 | +71 | 89-73 | e | ▼1 WC ▼1 |
| KC | 69-93 | 16.0 | 2-8 | W1 | -120 | 69-93 | e | |
| AL West | ||||||||
| HOU | 81-81 | — | 5-5 | W2 | -32 | 78-84 | y | |
| TEX | 80-82 | 1.0 | 4-6 | L1 | -46 | 76-86 | e | ▼1 |
| SEA | 76-86 | 5.0 | 6-4 | W2 | -58 | 75-87 | e | WC ▲1 |
| ATH | 64-98 | 17.0 | 3-7 | L2 | -238 | 60-102 | e | |
| LAA | 62-100 | 19.0 | 4-6 | L2 | -97 | 71-91 | e | |
| NL East | ||||||||
| ATL | 94-68 | — | 5-5 | L1 | +116 | 93-69 | y | |
| PHI | 88-74 | 6.0 | 4-6 | W1 | +15 | 83-79 | w | |
| MIA | 80-82 | 14.0 | 5-5 | W1 | +3 | 81-81 | e | |
| WSH | 77-85 | 17.0 | 6-4 | W1 | +6 | 82-80 | e | WC ▲1 |
| NYM | 74-88 | 20.0 | 5-5 | L1 | -32 | 78-84 | e | |
| NL Central | ||||||||
| MIL | 103-59 | — | 8-2 | W5 | +214 | 103-59 | z | |
| CHC | 89-73 | 14.0 | 5-5 | W1 | +147 | 95-67 | w | |
| PIT | 82-80 | 21.0 | 7-3 | W1 | +28 | 84-78 | e | |
| STL | 77-85 | 26.0 | 2-8 | L4 | -29 | 78-84 | e | |
| CIN | 75-87 | 28.0 | 4-6 | L1 | -160 | 65-97 | e | |
| NL West | ||||||||
| LAD | 100-62 | — | 8-2 | W3 | +201 | 102-60 | y | |
| SD | 91-71 | 9.0 | 8-2 | W2 | +41 | 85-77 | w | |
| AZ | 86-76 | 14.0 | 6-4 | L2 | +9 | 82-80 | e | |
| SF | 65-97 | 35.0 | 2-8 | L5 | -91 | 72-90 | e | |
| COL | 58-104 | 42.0 | 2-8 | L1 | -192 | 64-98 | e |
Game of the Night: Dodgers 5, Giants 1 (10)
- Drama Index 4.30 ★★★★★ · 1 lead change · 10 innings · peak leverage 3.98 (top 10th)
- Top WPA: Alex Call +0.25 (batter) · Bobby Miller +0.22 (pitcher) · Camilo Doval +0.18 (pitcher)
- Bottom WPA: Duncan Davitt -0.45 (pitcher) · Drew Cavanaugh -0.22 (batter) · Miguel Rojas -0.19 (batter)
Watch: condensed game, 11 min · recap, 4 min (MLB.com)
| Inning | Matchup | Result | Win probability | WPA | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 10th | Andy Pages vs. Duncan Davitt | Home Run | LAD 62% → 96% | +0.33 | 1.32 |
| Top 10th | Alex Call vs. Duncan Davitt | Double | LAD 30% → 61% | +0.32 | 3.98 |
| Top 8th | Andy Pages vs. Trent Harris | Grounded Into DP | LAD 57% → 39% | -0.18 | 3.75 |
Watch
- Guardians 2, Royals 3 · condensed game, 10 min (MLB.com)
- Mets 4, Nationals 6 · condensed game, 10 min (MLB.com)
- Cubs 6, Red Sox 2 · condensed game, 11 min (MLB.com)
- Braves 3, Marlins 5 · condensed game, 10 min (MLB.com)
- D-backs 4, Padres 9 · condensed game, 14 min (MLB.com)
Top Performers
| Starter | Game | IP | H | R (ER) | BB | K | Pitches | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | TOR vs. CIN | 7.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 114 | 72 |
| Dean Kremer | MIN vs. TEX | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 74 | 71 |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA vs. LAA | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 61 | 70 |
| Randy Vásquez | SD vs. AZ | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 68 | 69 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | MIL vs. STL | 5.1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 68 | 69 |
| Batter | Team | Line | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | CHC | 4-for-4, 2 HR, 2B, 4 RBI, BB | +0.37 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI | +0.33 |
| Andrés Chaparro | WSH | 3-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI | +0.29 |
| Jared Serna | MIA | 2-for-2, 2B, 2 RBI, BB | +0.26 |
| Alex Call | LAD | 1-for-2, 2B, 1 RBI | +0.25 |
Statcast Corner
- 712 tracked balls in play, 39% hard-hit (95+ mph), 58 barrels
- 68 pitches at 100+ mph from 7 pitchers
| Category | Player | Detail | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hardest-hit ball | Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 116.8 mph (188 km/h) double off Nick Martinez | TB @ PHI, bot 2 |
| Fastest pitch | Justin Martinez (AZ) | 102.8 mph (165 km/h) four-seamer to Austin Hays | AZ @ SD, bot 7 |
| Unluckiest out | Matt Shaw (CHC) | fly ball out, xBA .920, 72.0 mph (116 km/h), caught by LF Jarren Duran | CHC @ BOS, top 6 |
| Longest home run | Charles McAdoo (TOR) | 446 ft (136 m), 108.6 mph (175 km/h) | CIN @ TOR, bot 8 |
Stat Lab · Lesson 4: The automatic runner, and whether to bunt him to third
The Dodgers-Giants game went 10 innings, and from the 10th on every half-inning began with a runner on second and nobody out. Was the smart play to bunt the free runner over or to swing away? The answer depends on a single question: how many runs do you need?
The idea. Every extra half-inning in the MLB regular season starts with an automatic runner on second base: the player in the batting order just before that inning’s leadoff hitter. The rule, first used in 2020 and permanent since 2023, is meant to end games sooner; the postseason still plays classic extra innings. With a runner on second and nobody out, a single usually scores him, and even two productive outs can. That revives the old argument about the sacrifice bunt: trading an out for a base is usually a bad deal, but this is not a usual situation.
The math. Run-expectancy tables for recent seasons put a runner on second with nobody out at about 1.10 runs for the rest of the inning, and a runner on third with one out at about 0.95. So a successful bunt costs about 0.15 expected runs. But it raises the chance of scoring at least once, from roughly 61% to about 66%, since from third even a fly ball or a slow grounder scores him. The bunt buys a better shot at one run and pays with a smaller shot at a big inning.
The scale. So who should bunt? The home team, tied, batting in the bottom half: one run ends the game, so the chance of scoring once is all that matters. The visitors usually should not, because a single run can be answered by the home team’s own free runner; they want the bigger inning. Neither team bunted in this one, so both played for the bigger inning.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- The numbers assume the bunt works. A popped-up bunt or a runner thrown out at third leaves the offense worse off than swinging away.
- Who is batting matters more than the table: bunting with your best hitter wastes his bat.
- If the automatic runner scores, the run is unearned: he counts as having reached on an error, though none is charged.
Try it. Next extra-inning game you watch, decide before each half-inning whether you would bunt, from the score and the side batting, then see whether the manager agrees.
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: the designated runner · FanGraphs Library: RE24 · Tom Tango: run expectancy tables
Check yourself
- Q1. Why does a bunt make more sense for the home team in the bottom of the 10th than for the visitors in the top?
- Q2. The automatic runner scores. Is the run earned?
- Q3. About how many expected runs does a successful bunt cost with the runner on second and nobody out?
Show answers
- A1. The home team needs exactly one run to win, so the chance of scoring at least once is what counts (about 66% from third with one out against 61% from second with none). The visitors need a cushion, and the bunt lowers their expected runs.
- A2. No. He is treated as if he reached on an error, so the run is unearned for the pitcher, even though no error is charged.
- A3. About 0.15: from roughly 1.10 runs to 0.95.
Seen Last Night: The automatic runner
The automatic runner. The Dodgers won the Dodgers-Giants game 5-1 in 10 innings, and from the 10th on neither side started a half-inning with the bases empty: an automatic runner stood on second, the player in the batting order just ahead of that inning’s leadoff man.
That changes how teams play. A single usually scores him, and so can two productive outs. The home team, needing only one run in a tie, may bunt him to third; the visitors usually want more. The rule applies in the regular season only, and October goes back to classic extra innings.
Go deeper: 2026 Official Baseball Rules (PDF)
Transaction Wire
- Phillies: designated RHP José Urquidy for assignment · MLB Trade Rumors
- Phillies: LHP Jesús Luzardo back from the 15-day IL (5.5 WAR this season) · MLB Trade Rumors
- Astros: outrighted RHP Jason Alexander to Sugar Land Space Cowboys
- Rays: outrighted RHP Jake Woodford to Durham Bulls
- Red Sox: RHP Tyron Guerrero to the 15-day IL (right shoulder, retroactive to Sept. 24, 1.0 WAR this season) · MLB Trade Rumors
- Red Sox: DH Mickey Gasper to the 10-day IL (right biceps, retroactive to Sept. 26) · MLB Trade Rumors
- Red Sox: CF Eli White moved to the 60-day IL (right foot)
- Tigers: RHP Jack Flaherty back from the 15-day IL (1.3 WAR this season) · MLB Trade Rumors
More moves (24)
- Astros: recalled 2B Raynel Delgado from Sugar Land Space Cowboys
- Astros: optioned RHP Ronel Blanco to Sugar Land Space Cowboys
- Cubs: recalled LHP Braxton Garrett from Iowa Cubs
- Cubs: optioned RHP Gavin Hollowell to ACL Cubs
- Dodgers: RHP Blake Treinen to the 15-day IL · MLB Trade Rumors
- Dodgers: recalled RHP Bobby Miller from Oklahoma City Comets
- Guardians: recalled RHP Austin Peterson from Columbus Clippers
- Guardians: optioned RHP Craig Yoho to Columbus Clippers
- Mets: RHP Jonathan Pintaro to the 15-day IL
- Mets: recalled LHP Jefry Yan from FCL Mets
- Pirates: recalled RHP Noah Murdock from Indianapolis Indians
- Pirates: optioned LHP Evan Sisk to FCL Pirates
- Rangers: recalled CF Cam Cauley from Round Rock Express
- Rangers: optioned DH Logan O’Hoppe to ACL Rangers
- Rays: recalled RHP Jesse Scholtens from Durham Bulls
- Rays: optioned RHP Ty Johnson to Durham Bulls
- Red Sox: RHP Tanner Houck back from the 60-day IL
- Red Sox: recalled LF Nate Eaton from Worcester Red Sox
- Red Sox: recalled RHP Wyatt Olds from Worcester Red Sox
- Red Sox: optioned RHP Jedixson Paez to Worcester Red Sox
- Royals: RHP Tony Gonsolin to the 15-day IL
- Royals: RHP James McArthur back from the 60-day IL
- Royals: RHP Steven Cruz to the restricted list
- Tigers: optioned LHP Brant Hurter to FCL Tigers
Around the World
- NPB (Japan): Buffaloes 5, Hawks 12 · Carp 5, BayStars 3 · Golden Eagles 2, Lions 3 · Fighters 1, Marines 6 · Swallows 0, Giants 11 (shutout)
- KBO (Korea): Wiz 12, Bears 6 · Eagles 6, Giants 2 · Heroes 8, Dinos 4
- CPBL (Taiwan): Lions 2, Hawks 4 · Monkeys 4, Dragons 2 · Brothers 1, Guardians 2
Around the Web
Last Night’s Games
- Dodgers 5, Giants 1 (10) — Dodgers end season with 100th win, questions about Ohtani (MLB.com)
- Cubs 6, Red Sox 2 — Counsell playing Cubs’ postseason rotation close to the vest (MLB.com)
- D-backs 4, Padres 9 — D-backs push postseason fight to Game 162, but battle ends there (MLB.com)
- Angels 3, Mariners 7 — Wilson will not return as Mariners’ manager in 2027 (MLB.com)
- Rays 3, Phillies 7 — Luzardo throws 4-pitch eighth in return, ready for ‘whatever Phillies need’ (MLB.com)
- Astros 9, Athletics 0 — Astros endure obstacles, clinch 8th AL West title: ‘Now, we go’ (MLB.com)
News
- Power Rankings: Who starts playoffs on top? — MLB.com
- 2026 MLB Wild Card Series full schedule on NBC, Peacock and NBCSN: Matchups, times, preview — NBC Sports
- Winners and losers of MLB’s Game 162: Phillies, Astros save their seasons, AL West makes mockery of the sport — CBS Sports
- Did Carson Benge’s late surge put him in the hunt for NL rookie of the year? — The Athletic (subscription)
Transactions & Rumors
- Dan Wilson Won’t Return As Mariners’ Manager In 2027 — MLB Trade Rumors
- Willson returns to lineup, should play in WC Series; Gasper, Guerrero placed on IL — MLB.com
- AL West Notes: Daniels, Suzuki, Crawford, Spence — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (7)
Analysis
- Sunday Notes: Chase DeLauter is Healthy and Sitting Fastballs With Much Success — FanGraphs
- Justin Verlander Bids Farewell to Detroit — Just Baseball
- BWB 025 – Is Failure an Option? — Pitcher List
- Desperate Times Call for Questionable Measures — Baseball Prospectus (subscription)
Listen
- Phillies, Astros round out postseason bracket — MLB Morning Lineup · 13 min
- EMOTIONAL EVE OF THE FINAL DAY – Justin Verlander’s Final Detroit Tigers Start PULLS Heartstrings — Locked On MLB · 34 min
- 2026 MLB Playoff Preview: Breaking Down All 12 Teams + World Series Picks — Rates & Barrels · 95 min
Sources & Notes
Assembled automatically each morning by The Daily Whiff’s software from MLB Stats API and Baseball Savant data. How this site works
Season numbers are through Sept. 27, 2026; advanced metrics from the MLB Stats API (FIP, xFIP, WAR, wRC+) can run a day behind. Data: MLB Advanced Media, used under its individual, non-commercial terms; highlight videos link to MLB.com.
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