Sun, Oct. 4 · 2 games · Stat Lab #11: wOBA vs. xwOBA: results vs. quality of contact · 8-min read
Press time 19:15 CEST · Final 2/2 · Statcast: posted
- Last night: 2 final
- Game of the Night: Padres 3, Brewers 4 · Drama 3.97 ★★★★
- Division Series: NYY-TB: Rays lead 1-0 · CWS-CLE: White Sox lead 1-0 · SD-MIL: Brewers lead 2-0 · ATL-LAD: Tied 1-1
- Tonight: 2 games · first pitch 23:00 CEST
- Stat Lab #11: wOBA vs. xwOBA: results vs. quality of contact
- Jump to: Glance · Tonight · Scoreboard · Bracket · Game of the Night · Watch · Performers · Statcast · Stat Lab · Seen · World · Web · Terms · Sources
Last Night at a Glance
- NL Division Series Game 2: Padres 3, Brewers 4 · Brewers lead 2-0
- NL Division Series Game 2: Braves 3, Dodgers 2 · Tied 1-1
- Walk-offs: Padres 3, Brewers 4: Jackson Chourio single
Tonight (CEST)
Mon, Oct. 5 · 2 games · none before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 19:15 CEST
| Matchup | Start CEST (ET) | Series | Away SP | Home SP | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS 84-78 @ CLE 85-77 | 23:00 (5:00 p.m.) | ALDS G2 of 5 CWS leads 1-0 | Anthony Kay 4.44 · 4.75 · 10.3% · 158.0 | Gavin Williams 3.76 · 3.47 · 25.1% · 184.1 | — |
| NYY 93-68 @ TB 98-64 | Tue 02:00 (8:00 p.m.) | ALDS G2 of 5 TB leads 1-0 | Cam Schlittler 1.95 · 2.56 · 25.0% · 193.2 | Freddy Peralta 4.42 · 4.28 · 12.7% · 169.0 | — |
Scoreboard
| Matchup | Final | Drama | Decisions | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD @ MIL | 3-4 | 3.97 ★★★★ | W Megill · L Miller | Box · Savant |
| ATL @ LAD | 3-2 | 2.80 ★★★ | W Lee · L Bubic · S Iglesias | Box · Savant |
The Bracket
Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)
- AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
- AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
- NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
- NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.
Division Series (best of five)
- AL: Yankees at Rays: Rays lead 1-0 · Game 2: Tue, Oct. 6, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).
- AL: White Sox at Guardians: White Sox lead 1-0 · Game 2: Mon, Oct. 5, 23:00 CEST (5:00 p.m. ET).
- NL: Padres at Brewers: Brewers lead 2-0 · Game 3: Wed, Oct. 7, 03:30 CEST (9:30 p.m. ET).
- NL: Braves at Dodgers: Tied 1-1 · Game 3: Wed, Oct. 7, 00:00 CEST (6:00 p.m. ET).
The whole postseason so far, with every Daily: Postseason hub.
Game of the Night: Padres 3, Brewers 4
- Drama Index 3.97 ★★★★ · 1 lead change · Brewers came back from 2 down · peak leverage 9.99 (bottom 9th)
- Top WPA: Jackson Chourio +0.60 (batter) · Ty France +0.21 (batter) · Sal Frelick +0.21 (batter)
- Bottom WPA: Mason Miller -0.58 (pitcher) · Andrew Vaughn -0.17 (batter) · Brice Turang -0.16 (batter)
Watch: condensed game, 23 min · recap, 3 min (MLB.com)
| Inning | Matchup | Result | Win probability | WPA | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bot 9th | Jackson Chourio vs. Mason Miller | Single | MIL 28% → 100% | +0.72 | 9.99 |
| Bot 9th | Andrew Vaughn vs. Mason Miller | Flyout | MIL 34% → 18% | -0.17 | 7.11 |
| Bot 7th | David Hamilton vs. Bradgley Rodriguez | Field Error | MIL 22% → 38% | +0.16 | 3.22 |
Watch
- Braves 3, Dodgers 2 · condensed game, 16 min (MLB.com)
Top Performers
| Starter | Game | IP | H | R (ER) | BB | K | Pitches | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King | SD @ MIL | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 72 | 67 |
| Logan Henderson | MIL vs. SD | 5.0 | 2 | 2 (1) | 3 | 4 | 72 | 58 |
| Ray Kerr | ATL @ LAD | 2.2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 54 |
| Blake Snell | LAD vs. ATL | 3.2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 90 | 48 |
| Batter | Team | Line | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio | MIL | 1-for-4, 2 RBI | +0.60 |
| Ty France | SD | 2-for-3, 2 RBI | +0.21 |
| Sal Frelick | MIL | 1-for-2, 1 RBI, 2 BB | +0.21 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | 3-for-5, 3B, 2B, 1 RBI | +0.11 |
| Gary Sánchez | MIL | 0-for-0, BB | +0.11 |
Statcast Corner
| Category | Player | Detail | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastest pitch | Mason Miller (SD) | 103.5 mph (167 km/h) four-seamer to Jackson Chourio | SD @ MIL, bot 9 |
| Unluckiest out | Jackson Merrill (SD) | line drive out, xBA .940, 98.8 mph (159 km/h), caught by SS Cooper Pratt | SD @ MIL, top 4 |
| Hardest-hit ball | Garrett Mitchell (MIL) | 110.1 mph (177 km/h) single off Yuki Matsui | SD @ MIL, bot 7 |
| Longest home run | Max Muncy (LAD) | 397 ft (121 m), 108.8 mph (175 km/h) | ATL @ LAD, bot 9 |
Stat Lab · Lesson 11: wOBA vs. xwOBA: results vs. quality of contact
Read only the box scores and Ty France of the Padres looks like a hitter with a wRC+ of 141. Statcast sees a weaker one: his batted balls have earned an xwOBA of .325, not the .373 he actually posted. Last night he added two hits in a 4-3 Padres loss to the Brewers.
The idea. wOBA (weighted on-base average) gives every way of reaching base its run value: roughly 0.7 for a walk, 0.9 for a single, 1.25 for a double, 1.6 for a triple and 2 for a homer, on a scale built to look like on-base percentage. The weights come from linear weights, the average runs each event adds. xwOBA keeps the walks, strikeouts and hit batters as they happened but replaces every batted ball with its expected value from exit velocity and launch angle. wOBA says what he did; xwOBA says what that contact usually produces. The gap is what fielders, parks and luck added or took away.
The math. wOBA turns into runs through wRAA = (wOBA − league wOBA) ÷ scale × PA. Fitting that line through every hitter’s published numbers recovers this season’s constants: league wOBA .316, scale 1.24. For Ty France: (.373 − .316) ÷ 1.24 × 500 = +23.0 runs; his published wRAA, +22.8, uses unrounded constants and can run a day behind the box scores. Run his xwOBA through the same formula: (.325 − .316) ÷ 1.24 × 500 = +3.6. The difference, 19.4 runs, is how much his results have outrun his contact.
The scale. An average hitter’s wOBA is .316 this year; about .370 is excellent and .290 poor. Among hitters with 300-plus plate appearances, 67% sit within .020 of their xwOBA, so a .048 gap is big. The pieces tell the same story: a .295 average against a .248 xBA, and .502 slugging against .420 expected. Bet on the gap closing from the top: his results should cool toward his contact.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- The two numbers come from different kitchens: wOBA here uses FanGraphs-style weights, xwOBA Statcast’s, so gaps under about .010 mean nothing.
- xwOBA knows exit velocity and launch angle but not direction or the ballpark. Pull hitters who lift the ball toward a short fence can beat it for years.
- Fast runners beat out grounders the model scores as outs, so they often run a little ahead of it.
- 500 plate appearances is a full season’s worth: contact quality settles faster than results, but not overnight.
Try it. Open Baseball Savant’s expected-stats leaderboard, sort by the wOBA-minus-xwOBA gap, and pick one hitter from each end. Check them again in a month: did the lucky one cool off and the unlucky one heat up?
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: xwOBA · FanGraphs Library: wOBA · Baseball Savant: expected stats
Check yourself
- Q1. Ty France’s wOBA is .373 and his xwOBA .325. Which way do you expect his wOBA to move over the next month?
- Q2. Why does wOBA weight a double more than a single, but not twice as much?
- Q3. What does a wRAA of zero mean?
Show answers
- A1. Down, toward his xwOBA. Contact quality repeats better than the luck of where balls land.
- A2. Because the weights are run values. A double is worth about 1.25 and a single about 0.9: the extra base helps, but the runner still has to be driven in.
- A3. An exactly average hitter: his wOBA equals the league’s, so he produced as many runs as an average hitter would have in the same plate appearances.
Seen Last Night: Reached on an error
Reached on an error. The Brewers made an error in the top of the 7th of the Padres-Brewers game, and Fernando Tatis Jr. reached base.
The damage often goes beyond the play. Once an inning should have been over, every later run in it is unearned, so a pitcher can give up a crooked number that never touches his ERA. That is one reason ERA flatters some pitchers with shaky defenses behind them.
Around the World
- NPB (Japan): Tigers 1, BayStars 2 (11, walk-off) · Golden Eagles 2, Marines 3 · Carp 7, Swallows 4
- KBO (Korea): Bears 12, Lions 0 (shutout) · Tigers 6, Twins 5 · Heroes 9, Eagles 3 · Landers 6, Dinos 2
- CPBL (Taiwan): Dragons 9, Monkeys 4 · Hawks 1, Brothers 12 · Lions 6, Guardians 1
- Arizona Fall League: Scorpions 5, Desert Dogs 2 · Javelinas 3, Solar Sox 4 · Rafters 4, Saguaros 6
Around the Web
Last Night’s Games
- Padres 3, Brewers 4 — Brewers-Padres NL Division Series Game 3 FAQ (Tues., 9:30 p.m. ET, FS1 /FOX One) (MLB.com)
- Braves 3, Dodgers 2 — Braves follow manager’s pitch-perfect plan to even series with Dodgers (MLB.com)
News
- Kerr twirls scoreless outing as opener; Sale set for Game 3 start — MLB.com
- NLDS Game 2 winners and losers: Brewers magic strikes again in walk-off win; Braves put on pitching clinic — CBS Sports
- Chourio’s heroics, Miller’s troubles highlight takeaways from riveting NLDS Game 2 — MLB.com
- Sato shutout caps inaugural WPBL season: Highlights from the league’s first playoffs — The Athletic (subscription)
Transactions & Rumors
- Taylor Rogers Plans To Pitch In 2027 — MLB Trade Rumors
- Ty France’s Homecoming May Have Saved The Padres’ Season — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (7)
Analysis
- Jackson Chourio Does It Again: Brewers Come Back to Win Game 2 — FanGraphs
- The Blue Jays’ Approach in Japan Can Only Mean Good Things — Just Baseball
- BWB 026 – Winners and Losers — Pitcher List
- It’ll Be Over in a Moment — Baseball Prospectus (subscription)
Listen
- Brewers win thriller; Braves hold off Dodgers — MLB Morning Lineup · 12 min
- RAYS NEARLY NO HIT YANKEES – Dodgers, White Sox and Brewers All Win Thrillers — Locked On MLB · 32 min
- Wild Division Weekend: Brewers Survive, Rays Stun Yankees & Braves Answer — Rates & Barrels · 61 min
Terms in This Post
Drama Index · Leverage Index (LI) · Win Probability Added (WPA) · Hard-Hit Rate (HardHit%) · Barrel · every term in the Glossary
Sources & Notes
Built automatically from MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, NPB.jp, MyKBO Stats and CPBL Stats data; numbers through Oct. 4, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. Highlight videos link to MLB.com. How this site works