Mon, Oct. 5 · 2 games · Stat Lab #12: The times-through-the-order penalty · 8-min read
Press time 12:34 CEST · Final 2/2 · Statcast: posted
- Last night: 2 final
- Game of the Night: White Sox 4, Guardians 3 · Drama 2.90 ★★★
- Division Series: NYY-TB: Rays lead 2-0 · CWS-CLE: White Sox lead 2-0 · SD-MIL: Brewers lead 2-0 · ATL-LAD: Tied 1-1
- Tonight: 2 games · first pitch Wed 00:00 CEST
- Stat Lab #12: The times-through-the-order penalty
- Jump to: Glance · Tonight · Scoreboard · Bracket · Game of the Night · Watch · Performers · Statcast · Stat Lab · Seen · World · Web · Terms · Sources
Last Night at a Glance
- AL Division Series Game 2: White Sox 4, Guardians 3 · White Sox lead 2-0
- AL Division Series Game 2: Yankees 2, Rays 5 · Rays lead 2-0
- Multi-homer games: Ben Rice (NYY) 2 HR
- 10+ strikeouts: Gavin Williams (CLE) 11 K
Tonight (CEST)
Tue, Oct. 6 · 2 games · none before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 12:33 CEST
| Matchup | Start CEST (ET) | Series | Away SP | Home SP | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD 100-62 @ ATL 94-68 | Wed 00:00 (6:00 p.m.) | NLDS G3 of 5 tied 1-1 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2.53 · 3.33 · 19.8% · 185.0 | Chris Sale 2.16 · 2.29 · 26.1% · 162.2 | — |
| MIL 103-59 @ SD 91-71 | Wed 03:30 (9:30 p.m.) | NLDS G3 of 5 MIL leads 2-0 | Dustin May 4.70 · 3.63 · 15.1% · 145.2 | Nick Pivetta 2.86 · 2.21 · 24.3% · 34.2 | MIL can clinch; SD faces elimination |
Scoreboard
| Matchup | Final | Drama | Decisions | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ CLE | 4-3 | 2.90 ★★★ | W Burke · L Sabrowski · S Taylor | Box · Savant |
| NYY @ TB | 2-5 | 1.85 ★★ | W Booser · L Schlittler · S Baker | Box · Savant |
The Bracket
Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)
- AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
- AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
- NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
- NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.
Division Series (best of five)
- AL: Yankees at Rays: Rays lead 2-0 · Game 3: Thu, Oct. 8, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).
- AL: White Sox at Guardians: White Sox lead 2-0 · Game 3: Wed, Oct. 7, 22:00 CEST (4:00 p.m. ET).
- NL: Padres at Brewers: Brewers lead 2-0 · Game 3: Wed, Oct. 7, 03:30 CEST (9:30 p.m. ET).
- NL: Braves at Dodgers: Tied 1-1 · Game 3: Wed, Oct. 7, 00:00 CEST (6:00 p.m. ET).
The whole postseason so far, with every Daily: Postseason hub.
Game of the Night: White Sox 4, Guardians 3
- Drama Index 2.90 ★★★ · 1 lead change · White Sox came back from 2 down · peak leverage 4.27 (bottom 8th)
- Top WPA: Sean Burke +0.34 (pitcher) · Braden Montgomery +0.20 (batter) · Grant Taylor +0.16 (pitcher)
- Bottom WPA: Angel Martínez -0.17 (batter) · Erik Sabrowski -0.17 (pitcher) · Sam Antonacci -0.14 (batter)
Watch: condensed game, 19 min · recap, 3 min (MLB.com)
| Inning | Matchup | Result | Win probability | WPA | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 6th | Braden Montgomery vs. Erik Sabrowski | Double | CWS 36% → 64% | +0.29 | 3.48 |
| Bot 8th | Jo Adell vs. Grant Taylor | Triple | CLE 12% → 28% | +0.16 | 1.71 |
| Bot 1st | Nathaniel Lowe vs. Sean Newcomb | Field Error | CLE 64% → 78% | +0.13 | 2.32 |
Watch
- Yankees 2, Rays 5 · condensed game, 22 min (MLB.com)
Top Performers
| Starter | Game | IP | H | R (ER) | BB | K | Pitches | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | CLE vs. CWS | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 98 | 61 |
| Freddy Peralta | TB vs. NYY | 4.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 66 | 54 |
| Cam Schlittler | NYY @ TB | 4.1 | 6 | 4 (2) | 1 | 2 | 76 | 42 |
| Anthony Kay | CWS @ CLE | 0.1 | 1 | 2 (1) | 1 | 0 | 17 | 32 |
| Batter | Team | Line | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Montgomery | CWS | 1-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI | +0.20 |
| Junior Caminero | TB | 2-for-4, 2B | +0.18 |
| Ben Rice | NYY | 2-for-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI, BB | +0.17 |
| Miguel Vargas | CWS | 1-for-2, 2 BB | +0.13 |
| Chase Meidroth | CWS | 2-for-4, 1 RBI | +0.13 |
Statcast Corner
| Category | Player | Detail | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unluckiest out | Jonathan Aranda (TB) | line drive out, xBA .911, 100.6 mph (162 km/h), caught by 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr. | NYY @ TB, bot 6 |
| Hardest-hit ball | Junior Caminero (TB) | 112.4 mph (181 km/h) double off Cam Schlittler | NYY @ TB, bot 5 |
| Fastest pitch | Gavin Williams (CLE) | 101.2 mph (163 km/h) four-seamer to Munetaka Murakami | CWS @ CLE, top 4 |
| Longest home run | Ben Rice (NYY) | 372 ft (113 m), 100.1 mph (161 km/h) | NYY @ TB, top 4 |
Stat Lab · Lesson 12: The times-through-the-order penalty
Freddy Peralta faced 18 Yankees hitters in the Yankees-Rays game, and none of them a third time. The warning signs were there: zero of the first nine reached base, then four of the next nine. The Rays pulled him anyway. Modern teams do that on purpose, because of one of the best-documented patterns in baseball.
The idea. The times-through-the-order penalty is the finding that hitters do better each time they face the same pitcher in a game. The first time, a hitter meets that day’s stuff cold; by the third, he has seen the arsenal, the release point and the sequencing, and the pitcher is usually tiring as well. Across many seasons the pattern is steady: a starter is worse the second time through and worse again the third, even when he still looks sharp. That is why starters’ innings keep shrinking, and why the opener exists: a reliever starts the game so the bulk pitcher meets the top of the order one time fewer.
The math. Count it from last night’s games, starters only. Hitters facing a starter for the first time reached base 6 times in 30 plate appearances (20.0%); the second time, 11 in 27 (40.7%); the third time or later, 3 in 8 (37.5%). The jump from the first trip to the second shows clearly; the later trips are a small sample on any single night. For Freddy Peralta himself: zero of nine reached the first time through, four of nine the second.
The scale. Of last night’s 4 starters, 2 faced at least one hitter a third time; Freddy Peralta was one of the two who didn’t, and he has averaged 22.8 batters per start this season. Every trip hands the offense a little more, so the third is where a tiring starter and a fresh reliever trade places.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- A night’s 8 third-time plate appearances are a tiny sample; the penalty is real because it holds across hundreds of thousands of them.
- Familiarity and fatigue are hard to separate, and a pitcher with a deep arsenal may suffer less.
- Pulling starters early moves innings to the bullpen, and relievers used night after night tire too.
- The data can’t see why the Rays made the change; with the Leverage Index at 2.34 when Cam Booser came in, traffic on the bases may have played a part too.
Try it. In tonight’s games, note when each starter reaches the top of the order for the third time and whether his manager lets him face it. Then check how those third trips went.
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: starting pitcher · MLB Glossary: opener · Baseball Savant: CSV field guide (times through the order)
Check yourself
- Q1. Freddy Peralta had faced 18 batters. How many more before one of them would have seen him a third time?
- Q2. Why do hitters do better the third time they face a starter in the same game?
- Q3. What problem does an opener solve?
Show answers
- A1. One: the 19th batter a starter faces is the first to see him a third time, once the lineup has turned over twice.
- A2. They have already seen his pitches, release point and sequencing, and he is often tiring. Both effects point the same way.
- A3. With a reliever facing the top of the order first, the bulk pitcher who follows reaches the dangerous third trip later in the game, or not at all.
Seen Last Night: Catcher’s interference
Catcher’s interference. Liam Hicks reached first on catcher’s interference in the bottom of the 1st of the Yankees-Rays game: the catcher hindered the swing, usually by touching the bat with his glove.
The batter is awarded first base and the catcher is charged with an error. The scoring is unusual: it is not an at-bat, and it counts neither for nor against OBP, so he reached base without it showing up anywhere in his slash line. If the batter had put the ball in play anyway and the play turned out better for the offense, his manager could have taken the result of the play instead.
Around the World
- NPB (Japan): Lions 7, Marines 1 · Hawks 1, Golden Eagles 3
- KBO (Korea): Heroes 6, Eagles 13 · Tigers 6, Twins 4 · Giants 0, Wiz 9 (shutout) · Landers 9, Dinos 0 (shutout) · Bears 7, Lions 5
- CPBL (Taiwan): Lions 7, Brothers 4
- Arizona Fall League: Javelinas 7, Rafters 10 · Desert Dogs 7, Saguaros 8 (walk-off)
Around the Web
Last Night’s Games
- White Sox 4, Guardians 3 — Guardians-White Sox ALDS Game 3 FAQ (Wed., 4 ET, TBS/HBO Max) (MLB.com)
- Yankees 2, Rays 5 — Rays-Yankees ALDS Game 3 FAQ (Wed., 8 p.m. ET, TBS/HBO Max) (MLB.com)
News
- Rice makes history with second two-homer game of postseason — MLB.com
- Atlanta’s Ray Kerr got NLDS Game 2 start in the morning. At night, he struck out Shohei Ohtani — AP via NBC Sports
- Shohei Ohtani still struggling at the plate: Can the Dodgers survive with this version of their superstar? — CBS Sports
- MLB Division Series results: Scores, highlights and ALDS Game 2 takeaways — The Athletic (subscription)
Transactions & Rumors
- Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants — MLB Trade Rumors
- Less than 2 years later, Crochet trade return trio paying huge dividends for Chicago — MLB.com
- MLB playoff winners and losers: Yankees can’t handle Rays’ pressure, White Sox trade keeps paying off — CBS Sports
- Red Sox View Curtis Mead As Early Favorite For Second Base Job — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (7)
Analysis
- This Post Doesn’t Have a Headline Because the Yankees Dropped It — FanGraphs
- Closing Thoughts on the 2026 Red Sox — Just Baseball
- Five & Dive Episode 586: The Roof is on Fire — Baseball Prospectus (subscription)
- Cup of Coffee: October 5, 2026 — Cup of Coffee (subscription)
Listen
- White Sox, Rays push Guardians, Yankees to brink — MLB Morning Lineup · 12 min
- BREWERS WALK IT OFF – Michael Harris II and Braves Split 2 in LA — Locked On MLB · 30 min
- Effectively Wild Episode 2540: The Fly Test — Effectively Wild · 118 min
Terms in This Post
Drama Index · Win Probability Added (WPA) · Hard-Hit Rate (HardHit%) · Barrel · Catcher’s Interference (CI) · every term in the Glossary
Sources & Notes
Built automatically from MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, NPB.jp, MyKBO Stats and CPBL Stats data; numbers through Oct. 5, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. Highlight videos link to MLB.com. How this site works