Tue, Oct. 6 · 2 games · Stat Lab #13: Stolen bases in the big-base era: break-even and baserunning runs · 8-min read
Press time 12:26 CEST · Final 2/2 · Statcast: posted
- Last night: 2 final
- Game of the Night: Brewers 3, Padres 4 · Drama 3.01 ★★★★
- Division Series: NYY-TB: Rays lead 2-0 · CWS-CLE: White Sox lead 2-0 · SD-MIL: Brewers lead 2-1 · ATL-LAD: Dodgers lead 2-1
- Tonight: 4 games · first pitch 22:00 CEST
- Stat Lab #13: Stolen bases in the big-base era: break-even and baserunning runs
- Jump to: Glance · Tonight · Scoreboard · Bracket · Game of the Night · Watch · Performers · Statcast · Stat Lab · Seen · Wire · World · Web · Terms · Sources
Last Night at a Glance
- NL Division Series Game 3: Dodgers 3, Braves 1 · Dodgers lead 2-1
- NL Division Series Game 3: Brewers 3, Padres 4 · Brewers lead 2-1
- 10+ strikeouts: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) 10 K
Tonight (CEST)
Wed, Oct. 7 · 4 games · 1 starts before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 12:25 CEST
| Matchup | Start CEST (ET) | Series | Away SP | Home SP | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE 85-77 @ CWS 84-78 | 22:00 ● (4:00 p.m.) | ALDS G3 of 5 CWS leads 2-0 | Daniel Espino (3/14 GS) 4.11 · 3.75 · 27.7% · 15.1 | Sean Newcomb (6/60 GS) 3.09 · 3.21 · 13.4% · 90.1 | CWS can clinch; CLE faces elimination |
| LAD 100-62 @ ATL 94-68 | Thu 00:00 (6:00 p.m.) | NLDS G4 of 5 LAD leads 2-1 | Tyler Glasnow 3.53 · 2.74 · 25.3% · 74.0 | Tyler Mahle 3.99 · 3.99 · 14.8% · 149.0 | LAD can clinch; ATL faces elimination |
| TB 98-64 @ NYY 93-68 | Thu 02:00 (8:00 p.m.) | ALDS G3 of 5 TB leads 2-0 | Nick Martinez 3.10 · 3.96 · 11.5% · 180.0 | Max Fried 2.80 · 2.65 · 16.4% · 112.2 | TB can clinch; NYY faces elimination |
| MIL 103-59 @ SD 91-71 | Thu 04:00 (10:00 p.m.) | NLDS G4 of 5 MIL leads 2-1 | TBD | Walker Buehler 4.63 · 4.51 · 11.4% · 153.2 | MIL can clinch; SD faces elimination |
Scoreboard
| Matchup | Final | Drama | Decisions | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ SD | 3-4 | 3.01 ★★★★ | W Matsui · L Romero · S King | Box · Savant |
| LAD @ ATL | 3-1 | 2.50 ★★★ | W Yamamoto · L Sale · S Díaz | Box · Savant |
The Bracket
Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)
- AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
- AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
- NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
- NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.
Division Series (best of five)
- AL: Yankees at Rays: Rays lead 2-0 · Game 3: Thu, Oct. 8, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).
- AL: White Sox at Guardians: White Sox lead 2-0 · Game 3: Wed, Oct. 7, 22:00 CEST (4:00 p.m. ET).
- NL: Padres at Brewers: Brewers lead 2-1 · Game 4: Thu, Oct. 8, 04:00 CEST (10:00 p.m. ET).
- NL: Braves at Dodgers: Dodgers lead 2-1 · Game 4: Thu, Oct. 8, 00:00 CEST (6:00 p.m. ET).
The whole postseason so far, with every Daily: Postseason hub.
Game of the Night: Brewers 3, Padres 4
- Drama Index 3.01 ★★★★ · 0 lead changes · peak leverage 6.10 (top 9th)
- Top WPA: Michael King +0.29 (pitcher) · William Contreras +0.24 (batter) · Jake Cronenworth +0.15 (batter)
- Bottom WPA: Garrett Mitchell -0.19 (batter) · Jackson Chourio -0.15 (batter) · Jake Bauers -0.12 (batter)
Watch: condensed game, 20 min · recap, 3 min (MLB.com)
| Inning | Matchup | Result | Win probability | WPA | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 9th | Christian Yelich vs. Michael King | Grounded Into DP | MIL 29% → 0% | -0.29 | 6.10 |
| Bot 5th | Jake Cronenworth vs. JoJo Romero | Home Run | SD 57% → 71% | +0.14 | 1.16 |
| Top 9th | Brice Turang vs. Michael King | Walk | MIL 18% → 29% | +0.11 | 4.08 |
Watch
- Dodgers 3, Braves 1 · condensed game, 20 min (MLB.com)
Top Performers
| Starter | Game | IP | H | R (ER) | BB | K | Pitches | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD @ ATL | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 98 | 79 |
| Nick Pivetta | SD vs. MIL | 4.1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 69 | 48 |
| Dustin May | MIL @ SD | 3.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 52 | 45 |
| Chris Sale | ATL vs. LAD | 5.0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 95 | 42 |
| Batter | Team | Line | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Contreras | MIL | 3-for-4, HR, 1 RBI, BB | +0.24 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | 2-for-2, HR, 1 RBI | +0.15 |
| Enrique Hernández | LAD | 1-for-4, HR, 2 RBI | +0.14 |
| Miguel Andujar | SD | 0-for-1 | +0.10 |
| Manny Machado | SD | 1-for-3, 1 RBI, BB | +0.08 |
Statcast Corner
| Category | Player | Detail | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unluckiest out | Teoscar Hernández (LAD) | fly ball out, xBA .877, 108.4 mph (174 km/h), caught by LF Mauricio Dubón | LAD @ ATL, top 4 |
| Fastest pitch | Dustin May (MIL) | 100.4 mph (162 km/h) sinker to Xander Bogaerts | MIL @ SD, bot 2 |
| Hardest-hit ball | Matt Olson (ATL) | 109.5 mph (176 km/h) single off Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD @ ATL, bot 4 |
| Longest home run | Enrique Hernández (LAD) | 406 ft (124 m), 106.8 mph (172 km/h) | LAD @ ATL, top 4 |
Stat Lab · Lesson 13: Stolen bases in the big-base era: break-even and baserunning runs
Jackson Merrill stole one base in a 4-3 Padres win over the Brewers last night, for 27 this season. Every one of those steals was a small bet: it gains a little when it works and loses about twice as much when it fails. So how often does a runner have to win it?
The idea. Two 2023 rule changes handed the running game back to runners. Bigger bases, 18-inch squares instead of 15-inch ones, shortened the trip from first to second and from second to third by four and a half inches. The disengagement limit allows a pitcher only two step-offs or throws over per plate appearance; a third that fails to get the runner is a balk. Steals jumped, and the league’s success rate climbed to about 80 percent. Baserunning runs keep score: runs gained or lost on the bases against an average runner, from steals and caught stealing, extra bases taken on hits and double plays avoided.
The math. Run values come from run expectancy: how many runs, on average, follow each base-out situation. A steal gains about 0.20 runs; a caught stealing costs about 0.41, since it erases a runner and adds an out. Break-even: 0.41 ÷ (0.20 + 0.41) = 0.41 ÷ 0.61 = 67%, roughly two successes per failure. For Jackson Merrill: 27 × 0.20 = 5.4 runs from his steals before any costs, and 5.4 ÷ 0.41 = 13.2, so about 13 caught stealing would erase them. His actual baserunning runs, +6.7, also count his caught stealing and the rest of his running.
The scale. This season 3,289 bases have been stolen in 2,429 games, 1.35 per game. Nasim Nuñez leads with 49. Baserunning runs stay near zero for most players. Among the 361 hitters with 200-plus plate appearances, the best is +9.3 and the worst −5.8; Jackson Merrill’s +6.7 ranks eighth. At roughly ten runs per win, even the best runner adds a win at most.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- There are no caught-stealing counts here, so his success rate is not shown; steals alone can’t say whether his running paid.
- The 67% is an average. Stealing third, running with two outs and running late in a close game all shift the math.
- Sprint speed measures top speed, but on a steal the jump and the read of the pitcher matter as much.
Try it. Find Jackson Merrill’s caught-stealing total on his player page and work out steals ÷ (steals + caught stealing). Is it above 67%? Tonight, count pickoff throws and step-offs: after two, the pitcher’s next try must get the runner or it’s a balk.
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: stolen base · MLB Glossary: base sizes · Baseball Savant: basestealing run value
Check yourself
- Q1. How many times would Jackson Merrill have to be caught to cancel out his 27 steals?
- Q2. Which two 2023 rule changes made stealing easier?
- Q3. Why does a caught stealing cost about twice as much as a steal gains?
Show answers
- A1. About 13: 27 × 0.20 = 5.4 runs, and each caught stealing costs 0.41.
- A2. Bigger bases (18-inch squares, four and a half inches closer between first and second and between second and third) and the limit of two disengagements per plate appearance.
- A3. It erases a runner and adds an out, while a steal only moves the runner up one base.
Seen Last Night: Grounded into a double play
Grounded into a double play. Christian Yelich’s ground ball in the top of the 9th of the Brewers-Padres game turned into two outs for the Padres and ended the inning, leaving the Brewers trailing 4-3.
Few plays erase more of an inning’s promise. By run expectancy, a runner on first with nobody out is worth nearly a run; after a ground-ball double play the inning is usually down to a tenth of that. The batter is charged with the GIDP, it counts as an at-bat, and even if a run scores on the play he gets no RBI.
Transaction Wire
- Padres: RHP Mason Miller to the paternity list (3.7 WAR this season) · MLB Trade Rumors
- Dodgers: recalled RHP Emmet Sheehan from Oklahoma City Comets (1.6 WAR this season)
- Braves: status change for LHP Martín Pérez (1.5 WAR this season)
- Padres: status change for LHP Wandy Peralta
More moves (1)
- Yankees: status change for RHP Clarke Schmidt
Around the World
- NPB (Japan): Lions 3, Marines 0 (shutout) · Carp 1, Tigers 2
- KBO (Korea): Dinos 1, Twins 6 · Wiz 10, Heroes 1 · Bears 3, Giants 1 · Lions 5, Tigers 4 · Landers 2, Eagles 9
- CPBL (Taiwan): Guardians 6, Monkeys 1
- Arizona Fall League: Saguaros 2, Rafters 7 · Desert Dogs 4, Solar Sox 3 (10)
Around the Web
Last Night’s Games
- Brewers 3, Padres 4 — Padres closer Miller misses NLDS Game 3 on paternity list, could return for Game 4 (MLB.com)
- Dodgers 3, Braves 1 — Dodgers-Braves NLDS Game 4 FAQ (6 ET, FS1/FOX One) (MLB.com)
News
- Turang, Yelich key to Crew wrapping up NLDS — MLB.com
- Brooklyn-born Richie Palacios puts Yankees in big hole with huge hit for Rays — AP via NBC Sports
- NLDS Game 3 winners and losers: Michael King keeps Padres’ season alive; Dodgers slug their way to series lead — CBS Sports
- MLB Division Series results: Scores, highlights and NLDS Game 3 takeaways — The Athletic (subscription)
Transactions & Rumors
- Previewing The Upcoming Starting Pitching Class — MLB Trade Rumors
- Mets’ Jeff Albert Not Returning To Coaching Staff In 2027 — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (7)
Analysis
- King for a Night: Heroic Performance Keeps Padres Alive in NLDS Game 3 — FanGraphs
- 1966: When the Orioles Stunned Baseball — Pitcher List
- Nathan Grimm’s 2026 Model Portfolio Review — Baseball Prospectus (subscription)
- A Call For Mailbag Questions!! — Cup of Coffee (subscription)
Listen
- Dodgers take control, Padres stay alive in NLDS — MLB Morning Lineup · 13 min
- SLOPPY YANKEES PUT SEASON ON THE BRINK – White Sox and Rays Win — Locked On MLB · 30 min
- Dodgers Respond, Padres Stay Alive + Yankees and Guardians on the Brink — Rates & Barrels · 65 min
Terms in This Post
Drama Index · Leverage Index (LI) · Win Probability Added (WPA) · Hard-Hit Rate (HardHit%) · Barrel · every term in the Glossary
Sources & Notes
Built automatically from MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, NPB.jp, MyKBO Stats and CPBL Stats data; numbers through Oct. 6, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. Highlight videos link to MLB.com. How this site works