The Daily Whiff

World Series preview: Rays-Brewers

Wed, Oct. 21 · 14 finals around the world · Stat Lab #28: Inherited runners: the runs a reliever’s ERA never sees · 5-min read

Press time 10:46 CEST

Postseason Preview

World Series (best of seven) · first pitch Sat, Oct. 24, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).

Rays at Brewers

TeamW-LRun diffPythag W-LLast 10Streak
Brewers103-59+214103-598-2W5
Rays98-64+8690-725-5L1

Game 1: Sat, Oct. 24, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET) · run-differential edge: Brewers by 128.

The Bracket

Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)

  • AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
  • AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
  • NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
  • NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.

Division Series (best of five)

  • AL: Yankees at Rays: Rays win 3-0.
  • AL: White Sox at Guardians: Guardians win 3-2.
  • NL: Padres at Brewers: Brewers win 3-1.
  • NL: Braves at Dodgers: Dodgers win 3-1.

Championship Series (best of seven)

  • AL: Guardians at Rays: Rays win 4-2.
  • NL: Dodgers at Brewers: Brewers win 4-0.

World Series (best of seven)

  • Rays at Brewers: Not started · Game 1: Sat, Oct. 24, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).

Game of the Night: Navojoa 7, Culiacan 6 (LMP, 11)

  • Drama Index 5.30 ★★★★★ · 0 lead changes · 11 innings · peak leverage 7.70 (bottom 11th)
  • Top WPA: Fernando Villegas +0.49 (batter) · Edwyn Valle +0.49 (pitcher) · Alejandro Quezada +0.30 (batter)
  • Bottom WPA: Erick Preciado -0.42 (pitcher) · Aldo Gaxiola -0.30 (batter) · Luis Verdugo -0.25 (batter)
Win probability, Navojoa 7 at Culiacan 6, 11 innings, Oct. 21, 2026. Biggest swing: Alejandro Quezada double, 11th inning, +30%.
Above the middle line the Tomateros de Culiacan were favored, below it the Mayos de Navojoa.

Watch: Gameday (MLB.com)

InningMatchupResultWin probabilityWPALI
Top 11thAlejandro Quezada vs. Pedro ReyesDoubleNAV 31% → 61%+0.304.58
Bot 6thFernando Villegas vs. Erick PreciadoHome RunCUL 24% → 52%+0.281.94
Bot 11thChristian Lucero vs. Edwyn VallePop OutCUL 46% → 20%-0.267.39
The three biggest swings.

Stat Lab · Lesson 28: Inherited runners: the runs a reliever’s ERA never sees

Tim Hill of the Yankees has spent the season cleaning up other pitchers’ messes. In all, he has inherited 35 runners, men already on base when he came in, and only two of them scored. His ERA of 4.60 shows none of that work, and it never will.

The idea. An inherited runner is a runner already on base when a relief pitcher enters. Scoring rules tie every runner to the pitcher who let him reach, so if he scores, the run is charged to that earlier pitcher and, if earned, goes into his ERA, never the reliever’s, even when the reliever allowed the hit that drove him in. ERA therefore misses one of the hardest jobs in relief: stranding someone else’s runners. Managers often save their best arms for these jams, where the leverage is highest.

The math. League-wide this season, 2,140 of 6,768 inherited runners scored: 31.6%. Tim Hill has let two of 35 score, or 5.7%. At the league rate, 35 × 31.6% ≈ 11.1 would have scored. 11.1 − 2 = 9.1: roughly 9.1 runs he kept off other pitchers’ lines. Only roughly: the totals do not show where the runners stood or how many were out.

The scale. League-wide, about one inherited runner in three scores. Tim Hill let 6% of his 35 through, against 32% for the league. Volume matters too: no pitcher has inherited more runners than Brent Headrick, with 54, and eight of them scored (15%).

What it doesn’t tell you:

  • The totals treat a runner on third with one out like a runner on first with two outs, though the runner on third scores far more often. Easy spots flatter a reliever.
  • His 35 runners are a small sample: each extra one who scores moves his rate by about 2.9 percentage points.
  • The count ignores the score. A runner stranded in a tie game matters far more than one in a blowout; gmLI, the leverage index at the moment a reliever enters, adds that context.
  • Closers usually start the ninth with the bases empty, so they inherit few runners. A low count says nothing bad about them.

Try it. In tonight’s games, watch for a pitching change with runners on base. Note which pitcher put them there, then check the box score: if they score, the runs sit on his line, not the reliever’s.

Go deeper: MLB Glossary: inherited runner · MLB Glossary: earned run · FanGraphs Library: Leverage Index

Check yourself

  • Q1. A starter leaves with a runner on second. The reliever gives up a single and the runner scores. Whose ERA takes the run?
  • Q2. Tim Hill has inherited 35 runners. At the league rate of 31.6%, about how many should have scored?
  • Q3. Why do closers often inherit fewer runners than setup men?
Show answers
  • A1. The starter’s, if the run is earned. The runner was his; the hit counts against the reliever, but the run does not.
  • A2. About 11.1: 35 × 31.6%. He allowed two, roughly 9.1 fewer than expected.
  • A3. Closers usually start a fresh ninth inning with the bases empty, while setup men are often called in during the seventh or eighth with runners already on.

Around the World

  • CPBL (Taiwan): Dragons 4, Brothers 5 (Taiwan Series Game 4, 11)
  • Dominican Winter League: Gigantes 14, Leones 9 ★★★★ · Tigres 3, Toros 0 (shutout) ★★
  • Venezuelan Winter League: Tiburones 8, Navegantes 6 ★★★★ · Tigres 4, Aguilas 5 ★★★★ · Caribes 7, Bravos 1 ★★★
  • Mexican Pacific League: Mexicali 7, Jalisco 9 ★★★★ · Mazatlan 2, Obregon 3 (walk-off) ★★★★ · Nayarit 4, Hermosillo 11 ★★ · Los Mochis 9, Guasave 0 (shutout) ★
  • Arizona Fall League: Rafters 7, Scorpions 5 ★★★★ · Saguaros 9, Solar Sox 2 ★★ · Desert Dogs 0, Javelinas 3 (shutout) ★

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Drama Index · Win Probability Added (WPA) · every term in the Glossary

Sources & Notes

Built automatically from MLB Stats API and CPBL Stats data; numbers through Oct. 21, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. How this site works