Thu, Oct. 22 · 12 finals around the world · 5 roster moves · Stat Lab #29: ISO: power with the singles taken out · 5-min read
Press time 15:38 CEST
- World Series: TB-MIL: Not started
- Tonight: 1 game · first pitch Sat 02:00 CEST
- Stat Lab #29: ISO: power with the singles taken out
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Tonight (CEST)
Fri, Oct. 23 · 1 game · none before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 15:37 CEST
| Matchup | Start CEST (ET) | Series | Away SP | Home SP | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB 98-64 @ MIL 103-59 | Sat 02:00 (8:00 p.m.) | WS G1 of 7 | Nick Martinez 3.10 · 3.96 · 11.5% · 180.0 | Jacob Misiorowski 1.80 · 2.17 · 31.3% · 174.2 | — |
Postseason Preview
World Series (best of seven) · first pitch Sat, Oct. 24, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).
Rays at Brewers
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Pythag W-L | Last 10 | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 103-59 | +214 | 103-59 | 8-2 | W5 |
| Rays | 98-64 | +86 | 90-72 | 5-5 | L1 |
Game 1: Sat, Oct. 24, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET) · run-differential edge: Brewers by 128.
The Bracket
Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)
- AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
- AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
- NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
- NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.
Division Series (best of five)
- AL: Yankees at Rays: Rays win 3-0.
- AL: White Sox at Guardians: Guardians win 3-2.
- NL: Padres at Brewers: Brewers win 3-1.
- NL: Braves at Dodgers: Dodgers win 3-1.
Championship Series (best of seven)
- AL: Guardians at Rays: Rays win 4-2.
- NL: Dodgers at Brewers: Brewers win 4-0.
World Series (best of seven)
- Rays at Brewers: Not started · Game 1: Sat, Oct. 24, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).
Game of the Night: Saguaros 11, Javelinas 12 (AFL, walk-off)
- Drama Index 5.82 ★★★★★ · 3 lead changes · Javelinas came back from 4 down · peak leverage 7.88 (bottom 8th)
- Top WPA: Alex McCoy +0.87 (batter) · Brooks Bryan +0.55 (batter) · Ty Harvey +0.47 (batter)
- Bottom WPA: Magnus Ellerts -1.28 (pitcher) · Adam Smith -0.72 (pitcher) · Mason McConnaughey -0.28 (pitcher)
Watch: Gameday (MLB.com)
| Inning | Matchup | Result | Win probability | WPA | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bot 9th | Alex McCoy vs. Magnus Ellerts | Home Run | PEJ 34% → 100% | +0.66 | 5.48 |
| Top 9th | Brooks Bryan vs. Adam Smith | Home Run | SUR 30% → 84% | +0.54 | 4.63 |
| Bot 8th | Ty Harvey vs. Magnus Ellerts | Single | PEJ 37% → 87% | +0.50 | 7.88 |
Stat Lab · Lesson 29: ISO: power with the singles taken out
Batting average treats a home run exactly like a bloop single. That is how Pete Crow-Armstrong (.280) and Steven Kwan (.282) can look alike on paper while being completely different hitters. One subtraction fixes it: slugging minus average, or ISO.
The idea. Isolated power is slugging percentage minus batting average. Slugging counts total bases per at-bat: one for a single, two for a double, three for a triple, four for a homer. Batting average counts every hit as one. Subtract the second from the first and each hit loses one base: singles disappear, a double keeps one extra base, a triple two and a homer three. What remains is extra bases per at-bat, power with the singles taken out. Two hitters with the same batting average can be very different players, and ISO shows which one hits for power.
The math. His season: 31 doubles, eight triples and 45 homers in 626 at-bats. Extra bases, doubles + 2 × triples + 3 × homers: 31 + 2 × 8 + 3 × 45 = 182. Divide by at-bats: 182 ÷ 626 = .291. The shortcut gives the same answer: .570 − .280 = .290, off by .001 only because slugging and average are both rounded. Now the same math for Steven Kwan of the Guardians, who hits .282: 36 extra bases in 539 at-bats, with three homers, is .067. Same average, a very different hitter.
The scale. The league’s ISO this season is .156. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s .291 is about 1.9 times that, first among the 176 hitters with 450-plus plate appearances. A hitter whose hits are mostly singles sits well under the league figure, like Steven Kwan’s .067.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- ISO ignores walks and says nothing about how often he gets on base. Read it next to batting average and on-base percentage.
- Parks matter. A fly ball that clears the fence in one park is caught on the warning track in another, and ISO takes every result as it came.
- A triple counts two extra bases, so a fast runner can post a decent ISO with few homers. Check the home run count too.
- Over a few weeks, power swings with how many fly balls happen to clear the fence (HR/FB). Expected slugging tells you whether the contact backs it up.
Try it. Find two hitters with nearly the same batting average in tonight’s box scores and compute each one’s ISO from his season doubles, triples, homers and at-bats. Which one would you rather have up with a runner on first?
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: isolated power · MLB Glossary: slugging percentage · FanGraphs Library: rate stats
Check yourself
- Q1. How many extra bases does Pete Crow-Armstrong have, and what ISO do they give over 626 at-bats?
- Q2. Two hitters bat .280. One has an ISO of .100, the other .250. What does that tell you?
- Q3. Why can ISO flatter a hitter who plays in a small ballpark?
Show answers
- A1. 182: 31 + 2 × 8 + 3 × 45. Divided by 626, that is .291.
- A2. The second hits for far more power: 150 more extra bases per 1,000 at-bats, though their batting averages match.
- A3. Because ISO counts every homer and double as it happened. Fly balls that clear a short fence would be outs in a bigger park.
Transaction Wire
- Royals: outrighted RHP Connor Seabold to Omaha Storm Chasers
- Royals: outrighted RHP Alex Lange to Omaha Storm Chasers
More moves (3)
- Royals: outrighted RHP Alec Marsh to Omaha Storm Chasers
- Royals: outrighted RHP Easton McGee to Omaha Storm Chasers
- Royals: outrighted RHP Mason Black to Omaha Storm Chasers
Around the World
- Dominican Winter League: Toros 6, Gigantes 7 (10, walk-off) ★★★★★
- Venezuelan Winter League: Tiburones 5, Bravos 9 ★★★★ · Caribes 1, Navegantes 4 ★★ · Aguilas 7, Cardenales 14 ★
- Mexican Pacific League: Navojoa 7, Culiacan 8 (10, walk-off) ★★★★★ · Los Mochis 2, Guasave 3 ★★★★ · Mazatlan 2, Obregon 3 ★★★ · Nayarit 3, Hermosillo 9 ★ · Mexicali 11, Jalisco 4 ★
- Arizona Fall League: Scorpions 15, Rafters 8 ★★★ · Desert Dogs 10, Solar Sox 0 (shutout) ★
Around the Web
News
- ‘We’re incredibly lucky to have him’: Cash the right man to lead Rays — MLB.com
- World Series preview: Surprising Rays-Brewers showdown to open with Jacob Misiorowski’s record heat — AP via NBC Sports
- On the biggest stage, Junior Caminero and Jackson Chourio are emerging as national superstars — CBS Sports
- Yankees World Series MVP Hideki Matsui named manager of NPB’s Yomiuri Giants — The Athletic (subscription)
Transactions & Rumors
- Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians — MLB Trade Rumors
- Bauers, Díaz reunite in World Series 8 years after trade that altered their careers — MLB.com
- Poll: Who Will Win The World Series? — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (7)
Analysis
- Postseason Managerial Report Card: Dave Roberts — FanGraphs
- Why We Shouldn’t Be Worried About the Mariners — Just Baseball
- World Series Preview: Never Before Seen — Baseball Prospectus (subscription)
- Cup of Coffee: October 22, 2026 — Cup of Coffee (subscription)
Listen
- The wait is over – World Series begins tonight! — MLB Morning Lineup · 12 min
- Effectively Wild Episode 2547: Both Sides of the World Series Story — Effectively Wild · 114 min
- World Series Preview: Brewers vs. Rays — Who Has the Pitching Edge? — Rates & Barrels · 64 min
Terms in This Post
Drama Index · Leverage Index (LI) · Win Probability Added (WPA) · every term in the Glossary
Sources & Notes
Built automatically from MLB Stats API data; numbers through Oct. 22, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. How this site works