The Daily Whiff

Rafters 10, Javelinas 11 (AFL, walk-off)

Tue, Oct. 20 · 16 finals around the world · Stat Lab #27: Awards voting and WAR · 5-min read

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The Bracket

Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)

  • AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
  • AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
  • NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
  • NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.

Division Series (best of five)

  • AL: Yankees at Rays: Rays win 3-0.
  • AL: White Sox at Guardians: Guardians win 3-2.
  • NL: Padres at Brewers: Brewers win 3-1.
  • NL: Braves at Dodgers: Dodgers win 3-1.

Championship Series (best of seven)

  • AL: Guardians at Rays: Rays win 4-2.
  • NL: Dodgers at Brewers: Brewers win 4-0.

World Series (best of seven)

  • Rays at Brewers: Not started · Game 1: Sat, Oct. 24, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).

Game of the Night: Rafters 10, Javelinas 11 (AFL, walk-off)

  • Drama Index 4.63 ★★★★★ · 1 lead change · Javelinas came back from 3 down · peak leverage 4.68 (top 9th)
  • Top WPA: Sammy Hernandez +0.49 (batter) · Dax Kilby +0.39 (batter) · Carlos Sanchez +0.39 (batter)
  • Bottom WPA: Ross Dunn -0.46 (pitcher) · Hunter Mann -0.31 (pitcher) · Teddy Sharkey -0.23 (pitcher)
Win probability, Rafters 10 at Javelinas 11, Oct. 20, 2026. Biggest swing: Sammy Hernandez single, 9th inning, +39%.
Above the middle line the Peoria Javelinas were favored, below it the Salt River Rafters.

Watch: Gameday (MLB.com)

InningMatchupResultWin probabilityWPALI
Bot 9thSammy Hernandez vs. Hunter MannSinglePEJ 61% → 100%+0.392.51
Top 9thDax Kilby vs. Ty CummingsDoubleSRR 28% → 67%+0.384.68
Bot 7thCarlos Sanchez vs. Jake MurrayDoublePEJ 54% → 78%+0.241.63
The three biggest swings.

Stat Lab · Lesson 27: Awards voting and WAR

Thirty writers in each league pick its Most Valuable Player, and October never counts: the ballots are cast before the postseason begins. By WAR, the best regular-season hitter in either league was Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs, at 10.6, and the best pitcher Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers, at 6.6. That is where most award arguments start, though not where they end.

The idea. The Baseball Writers’ Association of America votes on the major awards. Each league has 30 voters, two from each market, and ballots are cast before the postseason begins. The MVP ballot has ten places, the Cy Young Award ballot five and Rookie of the Year three; winners are announced in November. The rules leave “valuable” for each voter to define, and WAR is where most of the arguments now start: one number, in wins above a replacement-level player, covering hitting, running, fielding and position. For pitchers, the version here is built on FIP, not on runs allowed.

The math. MVP places score 14, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1, so a unanimous winner gets 30 × 14 = 420 points. The Cy Young scale is 7-4-3-2-1 (unanimous: 30 × 7 = 210) and Rookie of the Year 5-3-1. First place is the big jump: a player first on 20 ballots and second on 10 gets 20 × 14 + 10 × 9 = 370, while one second on all 30 gets 30 × 9 = 270. By WAR, Pete Crow-Armstrong leads Bobby Witt Jr. by 10.6 − 7.0 = 3.6 wins.

The scale. For a full season, about 2 WAR is a solid regular, 5 an All-Star and 6-plus MVP territory; double digits, like Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 10.6, are rare. League by league, Bobby Witt Jr. leads the American League (7.0) and Pete Crow-Armstrong the National League (10.6). Pitcher WAR tops out lower: the best pitcher, Jacob Misiorowski, is at 6.6 in 174 2/3 innings.

What it doesn’t tell you:

  • WAR has versions. A FIP-based WAR credits what the pitcher controls; a runs-allowed WAR credits what happened, defense and luck included: Jacob Misiorowski is 6.6 by one and 7.4 by the other.
  • A gap of less than a win is within WAR’s error bars; 3.6 is a real one.
  • October doesn’t count: a postseason hero gains nothing for it.
  • Voters look beyond WAR: ERA and innings for pitchers, and for some, whether the team contended.

Try it. Once the winners are announced in November, find the full voting results and rebuild one player’s point total from his places: 14 for first, 9 for second and so on. Then compare the order with the WAR leaders.

Go deeper: MLB Glossary: WAR · FanGraphs Library: WAR for pitchers · FanGraphs Library: FIP

Check yourself

  • Q1. A player is first on 25 MVP ballots and second on the other five. How many points does he get?
  • Q2. Why can’t a great postseason help a player win the MVP?
  • Q3. Jacob Misiorowski’s WAR here is built on FIP. What would change if it counted runs allowed?
Show answers
  • A1. He gets 25 × 14 + 5 × 9 = 350 + 45 = 395 points, out of a possible 420.
  • A2. The ballots are cast before the postseason begins, so only the regular season counts.
  • A3. It would credit or blame him for his defense and his luck, not only his strikeouts, walks and home runs. By runs allowed, his WAR is 7.4 rather than 6.6.

Around the World

  • KBO (Korea): Tigers 13, Twins 1 (Semi-playoff)
  • CPBL (Taiwan): Dragons 6, Brothers 0 (Taiwan Series Game 3, shutout)
  • Dominican Winter League: Aguilas 4, Toros 7 ★★★ · Estrellas 3, Leones 5 ★★★ · Tigres 14, Gigantes 1 ★★
  • Venezuelan Winter League: Leones 13, Tiburones 16 ★★★★★ · Caribes 3, Bravos 1 ★★★ · Tigres 5, Aguilas 1 ★★★
  • Mexican Pacific League: Los Mochis 3, Guasave 2 (10) ★★★★★ · Mexicali 11, Jalisco 10 ★★★★★ · Mazatlan 2, Obregon 1 ★★★★ · Navojoa 3, Culiacan 12 ★ · Nayarit 3, Hermosillo 6 ★
  • Arizona Fall League: Solar Sox 6, Scorpions 9 ★★ · Desert Dogs 10, Saguaros 3 ★★

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Terms in This Post

Drama Index · Leverage Index (LI) · Win Probability Added (WPA) · every term in the Glossary

Sources & Notes

Built automatically from MLB Stats API, MyKBO Stats and CPBL Stats data; numbers through Oct. 20, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. How this site works