Rays top Guardians 3-1

Sun, Oct. 18 · 1 game · Stat Lab #25: The positional adjustment: why a DH needs a bigger bat · 7-min read

Press time 17:45 CEST · Final 1/1 · Statcast: posted

Last Night at a Glance

  • AL Championship Series Game 5: Rays 3, Guardians 1 · Rays lead 3-2

Tonight (CEST)

Mon, Oct. 19 · 1 game · none before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 17:45 CEST

MatchupStart CEST (ET)SeriesAway SPHome SPStakes
CLE 85-77
@ TB 98-64
Tue 02:08
(8:08 p.m.)
ALCS G6 of 7Shawn Armstrong (0/41 GS)
4.58 · 4.43 · 9.7% · 35.1
Freddy Peralta
4.42 · 4.28 · 12.7% · 169.0
—
Prague time (CEST), US Eastern in brackets; final regular-season W-L. SP: announced probable starter (TBD = not yet), season ERA · FIP · K-BB% · IP; a/b GS = starts/games for a pitcher who mostly relieves. Stakes: series score as of this morning. ● = starts before 23:00 CEST.

Scoreboard

MatchupFinalDramaDecisionsLinks
TB @ CLE3-12.24 ★★★W Rasmussen · L Messick · S BakerBox · Savant
Sorted by Drama Index: how much win probability swung during the game.

The Bracket

Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)

  • AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
  • AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
  • NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
  • NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.

Division Series (best of five)

  • AL: Yankees at Rays: Rays win 3-0.
  • AL: White Sox at Guardians: Guardians win 3-2.
  • NL: Padres at Brewers: Brewers win 3-1.
  • NL: Braves at Dodgers: Dodgers win 3-1.

Championship Series (best of seven)

  • AL: Guardians at Rays: Rays lead 3-2 · Game 4: Sat, Oct. 17, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET) · history: up 3-2 in a best-of-seven, 80 of 117 won the series.
  • NL: Dodgers at Brewers: Brewers win 4-0.

Game of the Night: Rays 3, Guardians 1

  • Drama Index 2.24 ★★★ · 0 lead changes · peak leverage 3.70 (bottom 9th)
  • In history: 1,034th most dramatic of 1,878 postseason games since 1903 (Retrosheet)
  • Top WPA: Drew Rasmussen +0.32 (pitcher) · Bryan Baker +0.10 (pitcher) · Chase DeLauter +0.08 (batter)
  • Bottom WPA: Travis Bazzana -0.16 (batter) · Jo Adell -0.14 (batter) · Patrick Bailey -0.12 (batter)
Win probability, Rays 3 at Guardians 1, Oct. 18, 2026. Biggest swing: Chase DeLauter walk, 9th inning, +10%.
Above the middle line the Guardians were favored, below it the Rays.

Watch: condensed game, 24 min · recap, 3 min (MLB.com)

InningMatchupResultWin probabilityWPALI
Bot 9thChase DeLauter vs. Bryan BakerWalkCLE 10% → 19%+0.101.88
Top 1stJonny DeLuca vs. Parker MessickWalkTB 52% → 62%+0.092.83
Bot 7thPatrick Bailey vs. Drew RasmussenGrounded Into DPCLE 23% → 14%-0.092.22
The three biggest swings.

Top Performers

StarterGameIPHR (ER)BBKPitchesGSc
Drew RasmussenTB @ CLE7.041169575
Parker MessickCLE vs. TB2.052235735
Best starts by Game Score v2 (50 is average, 70+ is excellent).
BatterTeamLineWPA
Chase DeLauterCLE1-for-3, 1 RBI, BB+0.08
Yandy DíazTB3-for-5, 2B+0.07
Chandler SimpsonTB2-for-3, 2B, SB+0.06
Jonny DeLucaTB0-for-3, 1 RBI, BB+0.04
Steven KwanCLE2-for-4+0.02
Best bats by Win Probability Added (+0.50 = half a win).

Statcast Corner

CategoryPlayerDetailWhere
Hardest-hit ballLiam Hicks (TB)110.1 mph (177 km/h) grounder out off Parker MessickTB @ CLE, top 1
Fastest pitchCade Smith (CLE)98.4 mph (158 km/h) four-seamer to Jonathan ArandaTB @ CLE, top 9

Stat Lab · Lesson 25: The positional adjustment: why a DH needs a bigger bat

Yandy Díaz was the designated hitter in a 3-1 Rays win over the Guardians last night. His bat has been worth +19.8 runs this season, yet WAR takes 16.6 runs back for the position he plays. That charge is the positional adjustment, and it is why first basemen and designated hitters need big bats.

The idea. The positional adjustment is a fixed credit or charge for each position per 162 games, prorated by how much a player actually plays there. It exists because positions are not equally hard. Almost any hitter can be a designated hitter, and a DH gets no fielding credit because he never takes the field. Catcher and shortstop are the hardest jobs on the diamond, and few players can handle them at all. Fielding runs can’t see that difference, because they compare each fielder only with others at his position. The adjustment puts a slugging DH and a light-hitting catcher on one scale.

The math. Yandy Díaz has −16.6 positional runs in 154 games: −16.6 ÷ 154 × 162 = −17.5 per 162 games, exactly the full-time designated hitter’s rate. J.T. Realmuto holds the league’s biggest credit, +9.1 (a rate close to the catcher’s +12.5 per 162 games). The gap: +9.1 − (−16.6) = 25.7 runs, and 25.7 ÷ 9.82 runs per win = 2.6 wins.

PositionRuns per 162 games
Catcher+12.5
Shortstop+7.5
Second base, third base, center field+2.5
Left field, right field−7.5
First base−12.5
Designated hitter−17.5
Positional adjustment by position, runs per 162 games (FanGraphs-style values)

The scale. So Yandy Díaz’s bat has to beat J.T. Realmuto’s by 25.7 runs just to make up for position. It does: +19.8 batting runs against −18.0 is an edge of 37.8, which beats the gap by 12.1. With everything added, their WAR is 2.5 for him and 0.7 for J.T. Realmuto. The rule of thumb: over a full season a DH must hit about 17.5 runs above average just to be an average player, while a catcher who fields like an average catcher can hit 12.5 runs below average and still get there.

What it doesn’t tell you:

  • The values are a convention. Baseball-Reference’s WAR uses somewhat different ones.
  • Batting stats ignore position. wRC+ compares a hitter with all hitters, so the same wRC+ is worth more from a catcher than from a designated hitter.
  • The charge is the same for everyone at a position. A great defensive first baseman still carries the first-base charge; his glove shows up in fielding runs instead.

Try it. Pick a designated hitter and a catcher from tonight’s lineups and look up their WAR components. Add batting and positional runs for each: who comes out ahead once the position is counted?

Go deeper: FanGraphs Library: WAR for position players · MLB Glossary: designated hitter · MLB Glossary: catcher

Check yourself

  • Q1. How many wins apart do Yandy Díaz and J.T. Realmuto start, just from their positions?
  • Q2. Why does the designated hitter carry the biggest positional charge?
  • Q3. Over a full season, a catcher fields like an average catcher and hits 10 runs below average. Is he below average overall?
Show answers
  • A1. 2.6: +9.1 − (−16.6) = 25.7 runs, ÷ 9.82 runs per win.
  • A2. Almost any hitter can do the job, so it is the easiest position to fill, and a DH does no fielding at all.
  • A3. No. His +12.5 positional credit more than covers the 10 batting runs, leaving him about 2.5 runs above average before baserunning and the small league adjustment.

Around the World

  • KBO (Korea): Twins 3, Tigers 6 (Semi-playoff)
  • CPBL (Taiwan): Brothers 1, Dragons 3 (Taiwan Series Game 2)
  • Dominican Winter League: Leones 4, Tigres 5 (10, walk-off) · Toros 6, Estrellas 4 · Gigantes 1, Aguilas 4
  • Venezuelan Winter League: Tiburones 4, Tigres 5 · Leones 8, Caribes 4 · Bravos 8, Aguilas 2 · Cardenales 8, Navegantes 5
  • Mexican Pacific League: Obregon 0, Mexicali 5 (shutout) · Culiacan 7, Los Mochis 5 (10) · Jalisco 9, Nayarit 6 · Hermosillo 10, Navojoa 6 · Guasave 10, Mazatlan 4

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Terms in This Post

Drama Index · Leverage Index (LI) · Win Probability Added (WPA) · Hard-Hit Rate (HardHit%) · Barrel · Positional Adjustment · every term in the Glossary


Sources & Notes

Built automatically from MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, MyKBO Stats and CPBL Stats data; numbers through Oct. 18, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. Highlight videos link to MLB.com. The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”. How this site works