Thu Oct. 15 · Drama Index 3.47 ★★★★ · 1 lead change · stakes: postseason
Above the middle line the Dodgers were favored, below it the Brewers.
Inning
Matchup
Result
Win probability
WPA
LI
Bot 8th
Will Smith vs. Aaron Ashby
Double
LAD 24% → 46%
+0.21
1.90
Bot 2nd
Shohei Ohtani vs. Dustin May
Home Run
LAD 65% → 86%
+0.21
1.54
Bot 8th
Kyle Tucker vs. Aaron Ashby
Flyout
LAD 46% → 28%
-0.18
4.13
The three biggest swings.
Slugfest Superlatives
Player
Detail
When
Best start
Freddy Peralta (TB)
+0.34 WPA over 25 batters, innings 1-6
vs. CLE, Tue Oct. 13
Best relief outing
Aaron Ashby (MIL)
+0.35 WPA over 11 batters, innings 7-9, entered at LI 1.90
vs. LAD, Thu Oct. 15
Biggest hit
Jake Bauers (MIL)
home run, top 7th, 1-2 → 3-2, +0.31 WPA
vs. LAD, Wed Oct. 14
Toughest week at the plate
Max Muncy (LAD)
-0.38 WPA over 12 plate appearances
4 games
Leaderboards
Batter
Team
WPA
PA
G
Jake Bauers
Brewers
+0.44
17
4
William Contreras
Brewers
+0.28
17
4
David Hamilton
Brewers
+0.27
8
2
Chase DeLauter
Guardians
+0.25
17
4
Chandler Simpson
Rays
+0.20
12
4
Batting WPA, Oct. 11-17
Pitcher
Team
WPA
BF
G
Aaron Ashby
Brewers
+0.67
23
3
Freddy Peralta
Rays
+0.43
28
2
DL Hall
Brewers
+0.31
9
2
Robert Gasser
Brewers
+0.31
20
1
Cade Smith
Guardians
+0.28
7
2
Pitching WPA, Oct. 11-17
Team
W-L
RS
RA
Diff
Brewers
4-0
21
11
+10
Rays
2-2
15
14
+1
Guardians
2-2
14
15
-1
Dodgers
0-4
11
21
-10
Best records, Oct. 11-17
The Bracket
AL Championship Series: Guardians at Rays, Tied 2-2 (4 games this week)
NL Championship Series: Dodgers at Brewers, Brewers win 4-0 (4 games this week)
Sources & Notes
Built automatically from MLB Stats API data for the US game days Oct. 11-17, 2026 (8 games); win probability, WPA and leverage cover plate appearances only. How this site works
