Rays top Guardians 3-1

Tue, Oct. 13 · 1 game · Stat Lab #20: The three-batter minimum · 6-min read

Press time 15:52 CEST · Final 1/1 · Statcast: posted

Last Night at a Glance

  • AL Championship Series Game 2: Guardians 1, Rays 3 · Tied 1-1

Tonight (CEST)

Wed, Oct. 14 · 1 game · none before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 15:52 CEST

MatchupStart CEST (ET)SeriesAway SPHome SPStakes
MIL 103-59
@ LAD 100-62
Thu 02:00
(8:00 p.m.)
NLCS G3 of 7
MIL leads 2-0
Robert Gasser
3.87 · 4.23 · 14.7% · 109.1
Blake Snell
1.90 · 1.72 · 22.5% · 42.2
—
Prague time (CEST), US Eastern in brackets; final regular-season W-L. SP: announced probable starter (TBD = not yet), season ERA · FIP · K-BB% · IP; a/b GS = starts/games for a pitcher who mostly relieves. Stakes: series score as of this morning. ● = starts before 23:00 CEST.

Scoreboard

MatchupFinalDramaDecisionsLinks
CLE @ TB1-32.20 ★★★W Peralta · L Messick · S BakerBox · Savant
Sorted by Drama Index: how much win probability swung during the game.

The Bracket

Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)

  • AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
  • AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
  • NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
  • NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.

Division Series (best of five)

  • AL: Yankees at Rays: Rays win 3-0.
  • AL: White Sox at Guardians: Guardians win 3-2.
  • NL: Padres at Brewers: Brewers win 3-1.
  • NL: Braves at Dodgers: Dodgers win 3-1.

Championship Series (best of seven)

  • AL: Guardians at Rays: Tied 1-1 · Game 3: Fri, Oct. 16, 00:00 CEST (6:00 p.m. ET) · history: tied 1-1, the team at home in Game 3 (Guardians) won 44 of 102.
  • NL: Dodgers at Brewers: Brewers lead 2-0 · Game 3: Thu, Oct. 15, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET) · history: up 2-0 in a best-of-seven, 79 of 95 won the series.

Game of the Night: Guardians 1, Rays 3

  • Drama Index 2.20 ★★★ · 0 lead changes · peak leverage 3.29 (top 7th)
  • In history: 1,196th most dramatic of 1,878 postseason games since 1903 (Retrosheet)
  • Top WPA: Freddy Peralta +0.34 (pitcher) · Liam Hicks +0.16 (batter) · Ben Williamson +0.15 (batter)
  • Bottom WPA: Jo Adell -0.18 (batter) · Yandy Díaz -0.15 (batter) · Brayan Rocchio -0.13 (batter)
Win probability, Guardians 1 at Rays 3, Oct. 13, 2026. Biggest swing: Liam Hicks single, 4th inning, +15%.
Above the middle line the Rays were favored, below it the Guardians.

Watch: condensed game, 20 min · recap, 3 min (MLB.com)

InningMatchupResultWin probabilityWPALI
Bot 4thLiam Hicks vs. Parker MessickSingleTB 69% → 85%+0.151.97
Bot 4thBen Williamson vs. Parker MessickField ErrorTB 56% → 69%+0.132.30
Bot 3rdYandy Díaz vs. Parker MessickGrounded Into DPTB 65% → 54%-0.111.98
The three biggest swings.

Top Performers

StarterGameIPHR (ER)BBKPitchesGSc
Freddy PeraltaTB vs. CLE6.040269970
Parker MessickCLE @ TB5.063 (0)238248
Best starts by Game Score v2 (50 is average, 70+ is excellent).
BatterTeamLineWPA
Liam HicksTB2-for-3, 2 RBI+0.16
Ben WilliamsonTB0-for-1, BB+0.15
Chase DeLauterCLE1-for-2, 2B, 1 RBI, 2 BB+0.10
Junior CamineroTB1-for-3, 2B, BB+0.05
Taylor WallsTB1-for-3+0.04
Best bats by Win Probability Added (+0.50 = half a win).

Statcast Corner

CategoryPlayerDetailWhere
Fastest pitchFreddy Peralta (TB)99.4 mph (160 km/h) four-seamer to Jo AdellCLE @ TB, top 5
Hardest-hit ballTravis Bazzana (CLE)107.1 mph (172 km/h) line drive out off Ian SeymourCLE @ TB, top 8
Unluckiest outJonathan Aranda (TB)line drive out, xBA .594, 101.2 mph (163 km/h), caught by LF Steven KwanCLE @ TB, bot 7

Stat Lab · Lesson 20: The three-batter minimum

Bottom of the 7th of the Guardians-Rays game, two outs, the Guardians trailing 3-1: the Guardians brought in Tim Herrin for Shawn Armstrong. He faced one batter, Jonathan Aranda, and his outing was over. Before 2020 that was routine. Today it is legal only because the half-inning ended while he was on the mound.

The idea. The three-batter minimum, in force since 2020, says a pitcher must face at least three batters, or pitch until the half-inning ends, before he can be replaced. Only an injury or illness excuses him. Before the rule, managers kept one-batter specialists, usually left-handers brought in to face one dangerous left-handed hitter: the LOOGY, for “lefty one-out guy.” Every switch meant another warm-up and another pause. The rule, meant to cut pitching changes, ended that job. Since 2022 a 26-man roster may also carry at most 13 pitchers.

The math. Tim Herrin entered with two outs, so the half-inning needed one more out. He faced one batter, two short of the minimum, and the half-inning was over, so the rule was satisfied. Had it gone on, he would have had to stay in for up to two more batters. Across last night’s games, 1 ÷ 6 = 17% of relief appearances were short, inning-ending outings like his.

The scale. Short outings like this are the exception: the other 5 relief appearances last night lasted at least three batters or ended some other way, such as an injury or a walk-off. Tim Herrin entered at a Leverage Index of 0.23, below-average stakes (1.00 is average).

What it doesn’t tell you:

  • The minimum counts batters, not results. A reliever who walks two hitters still has to finish the third plate appearance before he can come out.
  • It does not stop matchups altogether: a reliever can still enter to face one hitter, as long as that hitter makes the last out of the half-inning.
  • Box scores do not say why a pitcher left early. An injury is the only other way out, and it looks the same on the page.

Try it. Watch the pitching changes in tonight’s games. Whenever a reliever leaves after one or two batters, check how the half-inning ended. Unless he got hurt, it should have ended with him on the mound.

Go deeper: MLB Glossary: three-batter minimum · MLB Glossary: 26-man roster · MLB Glossary: relief pitcher

Check yourself

  • Q1. A reliever enters with nobody out and walks the first two batters. Can his manager replace him now?
  • Q2. What was a LOOGY, and why did the three-batter minimum end the job?
  • Q3. How many pitchers may a team carry on its 26-man roster?
Show answers
  • A1. No, unless he is injured or ill. He must stay in until the third batter’s plate appearance ends, or until the half-inning is over.
  • A2. A left-handed specialist brought in to face one dangerous left-handed hitter, often for a single out. Now he must face three batters or finish the half-inning, so he can no longer be used for just one matchup.
  • A3. At most 13, a limit in place since 2022.

Around the World

  • Venezuelan Winter League: Leones 0, Aguilas 8 (shutout) · Tigres 8, Caribes 4 · Navegantes 6, Tiburones 10
  • Mexican Pacific League: Nayarit 5, Jalisco 8
  • Arizona Fall League: Rafters 6, Desert Dogs 5 (10) · Javelinas 13, Scorpions 5

Around the Web

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Analysis · Listen (7)

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Terms in This Post

Drama Index · Win Probability Added (WPA) · Hard-Hit Rate (HardHit%) · Barrel · every term in the Glossary


Sources & Notes

Built automatically from MLB Stats API and Baseball Savant data; numbers through Oct. 13, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. Highlight videos link to MLB.com. The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”. How this site works