Fri, Oct. 9 · 7 finals around the world · 4 roster moves · Stat Lab #16: WAR, built from its components · 5-min read
Press time 12:00 CEST
- Division Series: NYY-TB: Rays win 3-0 · CWS-CLE: Tied 2-2 · SD-MIL: Brewers win 3-1 · ATL-LAD: Dodgers win 3-1
- Tonight: 1 game · first pitch Sun 02:00 CEST
- Stat Lab #16: WAR, built from its components
- Jump to: Tonight · Preview · Bracket · Stat Lab · Wire · World · Web · Sources
Tonight (CEST)
Sat, Oct. 10 · 1 game · none before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 12:00 CEST
| Matchup | Start CEST (ET) | Series | Away SP | Home SP | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS 84-78 @ CLE 85-77 | Sun 02:00 (8:00 p.m.) | ALDS G5 of 5 tied 2-2 | Sean Burke 3.34 · 3.62 · 17.2% · 172.1 | Gavin Williams 3.76 · 3.47 · 25.1% · 184.1 | winner-take-all |
Postseason Preview
Division Series (best of five) · first pitch Sun, Oct. 11, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).
White Sox at Guardians
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Pythag W-L | Last 10 | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | 85-77 | +11 | 82-80 | 8-2 | L1 |
| White Sox | 84-78 | +56 | 87-75 | 7-3 | W1 |
Game 5: Sun, Oct. 11, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET) · run-differential edge: White Sox by 45.
Dodgers at Brewers
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Pythag W-L | Last 10 | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 103-59 | +214 | 103-59 | 8-2 | W5 |
| Dodgers | 100-62 | +201 | 102-60 | 8-2 | W3 |
Game 1: Mon, Oct. 12, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET) · run-differential edge: Brewers by 13.
The Bracket
Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)
- AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
- AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
- NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
- NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.
Division Series (best of five)
- AL: Yankees at Rays: Rays win 3-0.
- AL: White Sox at Guardians: Tied 2-2 · Game 5: Sun, Oct. 11, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET) · history: tied 2-2, the team at home in Game 5 (Guardians) won 26 of 52.
- NL: Padres at Brewers: Brewers win 3-1.
- NL: Braves at Dodgers: Dodgers win 3-1.
Championship Series (best of seven)
- AL: Tampa Bay Rays hosts CLE/CWS (slots still open).
- NL: Dodgers at Brewers: Not started · Game 1: Mon, Oct. 12, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).
Stat Lab · Lesson 16: WAR, built from its components
Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs owns a season worth 10.6 WAR, the most of any hitter in baseball. Everyone quotes that number. Few can say what is inside it, so let’s open it up.
The idea. WAR asks one question: how many more wins did this player add than a replacement-level player, the kind of fringe big leaguer a club can find for the minimum salary? It is built in runs. Batting (from wRAA, adjusted for the ballpark), baserunning and fielding measure him against an average player. The positional adjustment credits hard positions like catcher, shortstop and center field and charges easy ones like first base and designated hitter. A small league adjustment levels the AL and NL. Then comes the replacement credit: what an average player is worth over a replacement player in the same playing time.
The math. In runs: batting +49.4, baserunning +8.2, fielding +21.1, positional +1.9, league +1.5, replacement +22.1, for a total of 104.2 runs above replacement. This season one win costs 9.82 runs, the same figure for every player, so 104.2 ÷ 9.82 = 10.6 WAR. His batting runs (+49.4) and his wRAA (+48.8) differ by 0.6: that is the adjustment for his ballpark and league.
| Component | Runs | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Batting | +49.4 | +49.4 |
| Baserunning | +8.2 | +57.6 |
| Fielding | +21.1 | +78.7 |
| Positional adjustment | +1.9 | +80.6 |
| League adjustment | +1.5 | +82.1 |
| Replacement level | +22.1 | +104.2 |
| ÷ runs per win | 9.82 | 10.6 WAR |
The scale. A rough WAR scale for a full season: under 1 is a bench player, about 2 a solid regular, 3 to 4 a good one, 5 an All-Star and 6-plus MVP territory. Among the 156 hitters with 450-plus plate appearances, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 10.6 ranks first. Take away the replacement credit and he is still 82.1 runs, or 8.4 wins, better than an average player. WAR’s zero is replacement, not average, which is why an everyday average player earns about 1.9 wins per 600 plate appearances just by holding the job.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- Fielding runs are the shakiest part: defensive metrics disagree with each other and need several seasons to settle, so his +21.1 carries a wide error bar.
- Treat WAR as a range, not a ranking. Two players half a win apart are, for practical purposes, even.
- There is more than one WAR. FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference build theirs with different fielding models and baselines, and the same season can differ by a win or more between them.
Try it. Take a player from last night’s box scores, find his WAR components, and rebuild the total yourself: add the six run values and divide by 9.82. Which piece carries him?
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: WAR · FanGraphs Library: WAR for position players · FanGraphs Library: replacement level · FanGraphs Library: WAR’s limitations
Check yourself
- Q1. If Pete Crow-Armstrong had been an exactly average fielder, how much WAR would he lose?
- Q2. Why does an average everyday player have a positive WAR?
- Q3. Why does a shortstop get a positional bonus and a first baseman a penalty?
Show answers
- A1. 2.1 wins: his +21.1 fielding runs ÷ 9.82.
- A2. Because WAR’s zero is replacement level, not average. An average regular earns about 1.9 wins per 600 plate appearances just by being better than the fringe players who would replace him.
- A3. Shortstop is much harder to play, so an average hitter who can play it is scarcer and more valuable. The adjustment lets players at different positions be compared on one scale.
Transaction Wire
- Braves: designated SS Luke Williams for assignment · MLB Trade Rumors
- Braves: selected LHP Danny Young from Gwinnett Stripers · MLB Trade Rumors
- White Sox: status change for RHP Luis Castillo
- Dodgers: status change for RHP Blake Treinen
Around the World
- KBO (Korea): Twins 1, Giants 9 · Tigers 7, Dinos 2 · Lions 1, Landers 3
- CPBL (Taiwan): Lions 1, Brothers 4 (Challenge Series Game 1)
- Arizona Fall League: Javelinas 10, Saguaros 4 · Solar Sox 10, Scorpions 11 (walk-off) · Desert Dogs 9, Rafters 13
Around the Web
News
- White Sox-Guardians ALDS Game 5 FAQ (8 ET, TBS/HBO Max) — MLB.com
- Guardians ace Gavin Williams to start vs Sean Burke and White Sox in winner-take-all ALDS Game 5 — AP via NBC Sports
- 2026 MLB playoff bracket: Schedule, scores as Guardians force Game 5 vs. White Sox in ALDS — CBS Sports
- Dodgers name Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto as starters for NLCS Games 1 and 2 — The Athletic (subscription)
Transactions & Rumors
- Sonny Gray Plans To Pitch In 2027 — MLB Trade Rumors
- Zach Eflin Hopes To Remain With Orioles — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (7)
Analysis
- The 10 Best Division Series of All Time, Ranked — FanGraphs
- Where the Cubs Stand After an Abrupt End to the 2026 Season — Just Baseball
- Hitting Category Helpers: 2026 MVPs — Baseball Prospectus (subscription)
- Cup of Coffee: October 9, 2026 — Cup of Coffee (subscription)
Listen
- ROLLING AWAY FROM SOX – Cleveland Guardians Tops Chicago White Sox – Jose Ramirez and Bullpen BLUNDERS DOMINATE — Locked On MLB · 32 min
- Effectively Wild Episode 2542: C U in the CS — Effectively Wild · 24 min
- Dodgers-Brewers set for NLCS rematch, White Sox-Guardians head to Game 5 & Albert Pujols joins — Baseball Bar-B-Cast · 74 min
Sources & Notes
Built automatically from MLB Stats API, MyKBO Stats and CPBL Stats data; numbers through Oct. 9, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”. How this site works