Navojoa 7, Obregon 8 (LMP, 11, walk-off)

Game of the Night: Navojoa 7, Obregon 8 (LMP, 11, walk-off)

Continued from page 1

• Drama Index 6.78 ★★★★★ · 2 lead changes · Obregon came back from 2 down · 11 innings · peak leverage 5.65 (top 11th)
• Top WPA: Sebastián Elizalde +0.65 (batter) · Roberto Valenzuela +0.50 (batter) · Alejandro Quezada +0.20 (batter)
• Bottom WPA: Cristian Alvarado -0.42 (pitcher) · Cal Mitchell -0.36 (batter) · Marco Vargas -0.24 (batter)

Watch: Gameday (MLB.com)

Inning	Matchup	Result	Win probability	WPA	LI
Bot 10th	Sebastián Elizalde vs. Gerardo Lopez	Single	OBR 29% → 83%	+0.54	5.22
Bot 11th	Roberto Valenzuela vs. Luis Valdez	Double	OBR 45% → 80%	+0.36	4.40
Bot 10th	Cal Mitchell vs. Luis Valdez	Grounded Into DP	OBR 82% → 50%	-0.32	5.29

Stat Lab Fundamentals · Lesson 3: The force out and the tag

Of Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 175 hits in 2026, 45 were home runs, and a home run over the fence is the one hit that leaves the defense no play. On the rest the defense had a play to choose, and the choice depended on one question: was the runner forced to go?

The idea. Most outs on the bases come one of two ways. On a force out the runner has to move up because the batter, or the runner behind him, is taking his base, and the defense only needs the ball and a touch of the base before he gets there. On a tag he is not forced, so a fielder must touch him with the ball while he is off a base. The batter has to run on every ball put in play, and a runner is forced only while every base behind him is taken.

The math. Count the players who have to advance: the batter, plus the runners in an unbroken chain from first base. Bases empty: 1, the batter alone. A runner on second alone: still 1, because first base is open. A runner on first: 2. Runners on first and second: 3. Bases loaded: 4, and one of them is the runner from third, forced to run home, so the catcher can make a force out at the plate. Back to Pete Crow-Armstrong: 175 hits less 45 home runs leaves 130 other hits, all of them in play.

The scale. Force outs are the easiest outs on the field, so most double plays run through them: a ground ball, a force at second, a throw to first. A tag takes more: the fielder must catch the throw and still bring the glove down on a moving runner.

What it doesn’t tell you:

• A force lasts only while every base behind the runner is still taken; once the runner behind him is out, a fielder must tag him.
• A runner is safe only while he touches a base: slide past second or third and he can be tagged out. He may run through first base and past home plate.
• Not every out on the bases is a force or a tag: a runner who left his base before a fly ball was caught can be doubled off by a throw to that base.
• A tag needs the ball: an empty glove, with the ball in the other hand, is not a tag.

Try it. Next time a ground ball is hit with a runner on first, decide whether he is forced, then watch what the fielder does.

Go deeper: MLB Glossary: force play · MLB Glossary: double play · MLB Glossary: out

News

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Analysis · Prospects · Listen (5)

Analysis

• Top Landing Spots for Free Agent Seiya Suzuki — Just Baseball
• 2026-2027 Free Agent Predictions: Landing Spots and Contracts — Just Baseball
• Cup of Coffee: November 5, 2026 — Cup of Coffee (subscription)

Prospects

• 2026 Los Angeles Dodgers Org Prospect Team — Prospects Live

Listen

• To the Show Podcast: An Interview with Braves Prospect Daniel Brooks — Prospects Live Podcast · 27 min