Wed, Oct. 7 · 4 games · Stat Lab #14: xBA and xSLG: what the contact deserved · 7-min read
Press time 17:45 CEST · Final 4/4 · Statcast: posted
- Last night: 4 final
- Game of the Night: Rays 4, Yankees 3 · Drama 3.32 ★★★★
- Division Series: NYY-TB: Rays win 3-0 · CWS-CLE: White Sox lead 2-1 · SD-MIL: Brewers win 3-1 · ATL-LAD: Dodgers win 3-1
- Tonight: 1 game · first pitch Fri 02:00 CEST
- Stat Lab #14: xBA and xSLG: what the contact deserved
- Jump to: Glance · Tonight · Scoreboard · Bracket · Game of the Night · Watch · Performers · Statcast · Stat Lab · Wire · World · Web · Terms · Sources
Last Night at a Glance
- AL Division Series Game 3: Guardians 9, White Sox 3 · White Sox lead 2-1
- NL Division Series Game 4: Dodgers 4, Braves 1 · Dodgers win 3-1
- AL Division Series Game 3: Rays 4, Yankees 3 · Rays win 3-0
- NL Division Series Game 4: Brewers 3, Padres 1 · Brewers win 3-1
Tonight (CEST)
Thu, Oct. 8 · 1 game · none before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 17:44 CEST
| Matchup | Start CEST (ET) | Series | Away SP | Home SP | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE 85-77 @ CWS 84-78 | Fri 02:00 (8:00 p.m.) | ALDS G4 of 5 CWS leads 2-1 | Parker Messick 2.56 · 3.07 · 19.3% · 186.1 | Hagen Smith (1/18 GS) 1.29 · 2.35 · 22.7% · 28.0 | CWS can clinch; CLE faces elimination |
Scoreboard
| Matchup | Final | Drama | Decisions | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ NYY | 4-3 | 3.32 ★★★★ | W Seymour · L Fried · S Baker | Box · Savant |
| CLE @ CWS | 9-3 | 3.08 ★★★★ | W Griffin · L Hudson | Box · Savant |
| MIL @ SD | 3-1 | 2.63 ★★★ | W Ashby · L Ray · S Megill | Box · Savant |
| LAD @ ATL | 4-1 | 2.28 ★★★ | W Henriquez · L Mahle · S Díaz | Box · Savant |
The Bracket
Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)
- AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
- AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
- NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
- NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.
Division Series (best of five)
- AL: Yankees at Rays: Rays win 3-0.
- AL: White Sox at Guardians: White Sox lead 2-1 · Game 4: Fri, Oct. 9, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).
- NL: Padres at Brewers: Brewers win 3-1.
- NL: Braves at Dodgers: Dodgers win 3-1.
Championship Series (best of seven)
- AL: Tampa Bay Rays hosts CLE/CWS (slots still open).
- NL: Dodgers at Brewers: Not started · Game 1: Sun, Oct. 11, time TBD.
The whole postseason so far, with every Daily: Postseason hub.
Game of the Night: Rays 4, Yankees 3
- Drama Index 3.32 ★★★★ · 0 lead changes · peak leverage 4.90 (bottom 9th)
- Top WPA: Bryan Baker +0.25 (pitcher) · Spencer Jones +0.24 (batter) · Victor Mesa Jr. +0.23 (batter)
- Bottom WPA: Trent Grisham -0.28 (batter) · Max Fried -0.22 (pitcher) · Cody Bellinger -0.20 (batter)
Watch: condensed game, 21 min · recap, 3 min (MLB.com)
| Inning | Matchup | Result | Win probability | WPA | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 6th | Victor Mesa Jr. vs. Max Fried | Home Run | TB 46% → 75% | +0.29 | 1.39 |
| Bot 4th | Spencer Jones vs. Ian Seymour | Double | NYY 39% → 55% | +0.16 | 1.21 |
| Bot 9th | Trent Grisham vs. Bryan Baker | Strikeout | NYY 15% → 0% | -0.15 | 3.91 |
Watch
- Guardians 9, White Sox 3 · condensed game, 23 min (MLB.com)
- Brewers 3, Padres 1 · condensed game, 18 min (MLB.com)
- Dodgers 4, Braves 1 · condensed game, 19 min (MLB.com)
Top Performers
| Starter | Game | IP | H | R (ER) | BB | K | Pitches | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | ATL vs. LAD | 6.1 | 3 | 2 (1) | 1 | 4 | 85 | 68 |
| Tyler Glasnow | LAD @ ATL | 4.2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 78 | 58 |
| Sean Newcomb | CWS vs. CLE | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 51 |
| Robert Gasser | MIL @ SD | 4.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 56 | 50 |
| Nick Martinez | TB @ NYY | 3.2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 63 | 47 |
| Batter | Team | Line | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jo Adell | CLE | 2-for-4, 3B, 3 RBI, BB | +0.29 |
| Andy Pages | LAD | 2-for-3, 2 RBI | +0.28 |
| Spencer Jones | NYY | 1-for-2, 2B, 1 RBI, 2 BB | +0.24 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | TB | 1-for-4, HR, 2 RBI | +0.23 |
| Sam Antonacci | CWS | 1-for-2, 1 RBI, BB | +0.22 |
Statcast Corner
| Category | Player | Detail | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unluckiest out | Manny Machado (SD) | fly ball out, xBA .957, 106.7 mph (172 km/h), caught by CF Garrett Mitchell | MIL @ SD, bot 8 |
| Fastest pitch | Edgardo Henriquez (LAD) | 102.3 mph (165 km/h) sinker to Mauricio Dubón | LAD @ ATL, bot 6 |
| Hardest-hit ball | Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 113.9 mph (183 km/h) grounder out off Aaron Ashby | MIL @ SD, bot 5 |
| Longest home run | Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 429 ft (131 m), 110.6 mph (178 km/h) | MIL @ SD, bot 3 |
Stat Lab · Lesson 14: xBA and xSLG: what the contact deserved
Batting average and slugging count what happened. xBA and xSLG count what the contact deserved. For Jonny DeLuca of the Rays, those are two different seasons: .266 and .429 in the record book, .232 and .325 by the contact. Last night he added one hit in a 4-3 Rays win over the Yankees.
The idea. Expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging (xSLG) apply the idea behind xwOBA to the old stats. Every batted ball is compared with past balls hit at a similar exit velocity and launch angle. xBA credits it with the share of those that became hits; on some weakly hit balls it also uses the batter’s sprint speed. xSLG credits it with the total bases those balls produced on average. Strikeouts count as outs with no bases, and the denominator is at-bats, just as in batting average and slugging. So any gap comes from batted balls alone: fielders, the ballpark, weather and luck.
The math. Real total bases, singles + 2 × doubles + 3 × triples + 4 × homers: 58 + 2 × 24 + 3 × 0 + 4 × 11 = 150 total bases, and 150 ÷ 350 at-bats = .429. Now the expected line: .325 × 350 = about 114 total bases, so he is 36 ahead. For hits: .232 × 350 = about 81 expected against 93 real ones, 12 more than the contact earned. The power side, slugging minus average: an ISO of .163 against an expected .093.
The scale. Among the 267 hitters with 300-plus plate appearances, 57% have a slugging percentage within .030 of their xSLG, and Jonny DeLuca’s .104 gap is the second largest. Bet on his slugging drifting down toward .325, not on his contact suddenly improving.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- The model knows speed and angle, not direction or fence distance. A fly ball that clears the wall in one park is caught on the warning track in another; pull hitters who lift the ball can beat their xSLG for years.
- Speed barely enters the model, so fast runners who stretch singles into doubles and triples can run ahead of it.
- Expected stats describe the past. They say what the contact was worth, not that luck owes him anything: the hits already on his record stay there.
Try it. On Baseball Savant’s expected-stats leaderboard, sort by the gap between slugging and xSLG. Note two hitters at each end and check their slugging again in a month: which way did it move?
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: expected batting average · MLB Glossary: slugging percentage · Baseball Savant: expected stats
Check yourself
- Q1. Jonny DeLuca’s slugging is .429 and his xSLG .325. Which way do you expect his slugging to move over the next month?
- Q2. How many total bases is a home run worth, and how many does it add to ISO?
- Q3. Name two things xSLG cannot see.
Show answers
- A1. Down, toward his xSLG. How hard and at what angle a hitter hits the ball repeats better than where the ball happens to land.
- A2. Four total bases for slugging. ISO subtracts batting average, which already counted the hit as one, so a homer adds three.
- A3. The direction of the batted ball and the park it was hit in. The runner’s speed barely counts either.
Transaction Wire
- Padres: RHP Mason Miller back from the paternity list (3.7 WAR this season) · MLB Trade Rumors
- Padres: status change for LHP Wandy Peralta
Around the World
- NPB (Japan): Carp 1, Tigers 2 (11, walk-off)
- KBO (Korea): Eagles 3, Heroes 5 · Lions 3, Wiz 9 · Tigers 12, Giants 4 · Bears 5, Twins 7 · Dinos 3, Landers 6
- Arizona Fall League: Javelinas 3, Scorpions 4
Around the Web
Last Night’s Games
- Rays 4, Yankees 3 — ‘It’s a failure’: Yankees’ championship drought extended to 17 seasons (MLB.com)
- Guardians 9, White Sox 3 — J-Ram shows off all his tools as Guardians refuse to go quietly (MLB.com)
- Brewers 3, Padres 1 — Brewers’ bullpen walks NLDS-long tightrope flawlessly (MLB.com)
- Dodgers 4, Braves 1 — Braves’ postseason journey ends as thin pitching depth runs out of gas (MLB.com)
News
- Miz was throwing ‘110’ in the bullpen. Could he really have gone in the game? — MLB.com
- Phillies manager candidates: Six names to consider, from Don Mattingly to Albert Pujols — CBS Sports
- Murphy’s pregame seeds bear fruit in NLDS clincher — MLB.com
- A clip from Ronald Acuña’s podcast went viral. The speculation around it was all wrong — The Athletic (subscription)
Transactions & Rumors
- MLBTR Podcast: Diamondbacks Stories, Offseason Previews For Eliminated Playoff Teams, And Creative Pitching Usage — MLB Trade Rumors
- MLB Sends Memo To Teams Outlining Lockout Procedures — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (7)
Analysis
- Anthony Volpe, the Home Run That Wasn’t, and Another Early Yankees Playoff Exit — FanGraphs
- What Do the Giants Do With Jung Hoo Lee? — Just Baseball
- NLDS Game 4 Preview: Brewers vs. Padres — Baseball Prospectus (subscription)
- Cup of Coffee: October 7, 2026 — Cup of Coffee (subscription)
Listen
- 3 advance to LCS! Who’s next? — MLB Morning Lineup · 13 min
- SAN DIEGO SURVIVES – Padres Top Brewers In Tight Matchup Plus Yamamoto Dominates Atlanta — Locked On MLB · 30 min
- MLB Playoffs Live Recap: Dodgers, Brewers & Rays Advance and Guardians Stay Alive — Rates & Barrels · 69 min
Terms in This Post
Drama Index · Leverage Index (LI) · Win Probability Added (WPA) · Hard-Hit Rate (HardHit%) · Barrel · every term in the Glossary
Sources & Notes
Built automatically from MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, NPB.jp and MyKBO Stats data; numbers through Oct. 7, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. Highlight videos link to MLB.com. How this site works