Sat, Sept. 26 · 13 games · Stat Lab #3: BABIP: luck, speed and defense · 12-min read
Press time 16:08 CEST · Final 13/13 · Statcast: posted
- Last night: 13 final
- Game of the Night: Pirates 3, Tigers 4 · Drama 4.32 ★★★★★
- Clinched: Guardians (division) · White Sox (wild card)
- Race: AL West tied (Astros, Rangers), 1 left · NL last wild card: Phillies +1 on D-backs, magic 1
- Tonight: 15 games · first pitch 19:05 CEST
- Stat Lab #3: BABIP: luck, speed and defense
- Jump to: Glance · Scoreboard · Tonight · Race · Game of the Night · Watch · Performers · Statcast · Stat Lab · Seen · Wire · World · Web · Terms · Sources
Last Night at a Glance
- Clinched: Guardians (division) · White Sox (wild card)
- Walk-offs: Pirates 3, Tigers 4: Eduardo Valencia home run
- Multi-homer games: Ronny Mauricio (NYM) 2 HR · Patrick Bailey (CLE) 2 HR · Brayan Rocchio (CLE) 2 HR · Hunter Goodman (COL) 2 HR · Jeremy Peña (HOU) 2 HR
- Comebacks: Guardians from 3 down: Guardians 11, Royals 5
Scoreboard
| Matchup | Final | Drama | Decisions | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ DET | 3-4 | 4.32 ★★★★★ | W Waguespack · L Montgomery | Box · Savant |
| LAD @ SF | 4-3 | 3.58 ★★★★ | W Phillips · L Harris · S Scott | Box · Savant |
| LAA @ SEA | 4-8 | 3.32 ★★★★ | W Vargas · L Farris | Box · Savant |
| AZ @ SD | 7-10 | 2.75 ★★★ | W Matsui · L Cabrera | Box · Savant |
| COL @ CWS | 9-6 | 2.67 ★★★ | W Feltner · L Martin | Box · Savant |
| STL @ MIL | 2-3 | 2.57 ★★★ | W Harrison · L Mathews · S Ashby | Box · Savant |
| CLE @ KC | 11-5 | 2.48 ★★★ | W Bibee · L Wacha | Box · Savant |
| NYM @ WSH | 7-1 | 2.19 ★★ | W Núñez · L Irvin | Box · Savant |
| CIN @ TOR | 5-1 | 1.77 ★★ | W Lowder · L Yesavage | Box · Savant |
| ATL @ MIA | 8-3 | 1.59 ★★ | W Mederos · L Ralston | Box · Savant |
| TEX @ MIN | 6-2 | 1.54 ★★ | W Garcia · L Ober | Box · Savant |
| HOU @ ATH | 13-2 | 1.51 ★★ | W Wesneski · L Perkins | Box · Savant |
| TB @ PHI | 12-1 | 1.14 ★ | W Matz · L Nola | Box · Savant |
Tonight (CEST)
Sun, Sept. 27 · 15 games · 15 start before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 16:07 CEST
| Matchup | Start CEST (ET) | Series | Away SP | Home SP | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM 74-87 @ WSH 76-85 | 19:05 ● (1:05 p.m.) | G3/3 | Sean Manaea 4.67 · 4.44 · 15.6% · 144.2 | DJ Herz 9.00 · 5.85 · 10.5% · 4.0 | — |
| BAL 79-82 @ NYY 93-68 | 19:05 ● (1:05 p.m.) | G3/3 | Shane Baz 4.11 · 3.62 · 11.8% · 179.2 | Elmer Rodríguez 5.40 · 4.86 · 4.0% · 26.2 | — |
| LAD 99-62 @ SF 65-96 | 21:05 ● (3:05 p.m.) | G3/3 | TBD | Carson Seymour (0/24 GS) 4.70 · 6.03 · 4.4% · 30.2 | — |
| TB 98-63 @ PHI 87-74 | 21:05 ● (3:05 p.m.) | G3/3 | Nick Martinez 2.94 · 3.97 · 11.8% · 177.1 | Zack Wheeler 3.06 · 3.34 · 22.7% · 156.0 | NL WC: PHI magic 1, clinch with W |
| CHC 88-73 @ BOS 87-74 | 21:05 ● (3:05 p.m.) | G3/3 | Shota Imanaga 3.74 · 4.44 · 19.1% · 173.1 | TBD | — |
| HOU 80-81 @ ATH 64-97 | 21:05 ● (3:05 p.m.) | G4/4 | Peter Lambert 3.87 · 3.93 · 14.3% · 153.2 | Seth Johnson (0/27 GS) 6.19 · 4.63 · 13.3% · 32.0 | AL West: tied (HOU, TEX) |
| CIN 75-86 @ TOR 78-83 | 21:07 ● (3:07 p.m.) | G3/3 | Brandon Williamson 4.89 · 5.74 · 2.8% · 49.2 | Max Scherzer 6.14 · 5.43 · 8.0% · 77.2 | — |
| LAA 62-99 @ SEA 75-86 | 21:10 ● (3:10 p.m.) | G4/4 | Yusei Kikuchi 4.88 · 4.12 · 11.0% · 62.2 | Logan Gilbert 3.81 · 3.91 · 20.2% · 182.0 | — |
| AZ 86-75 @ SD 90-71 | 21:10 ● (3:10 p.m.) | G3/3 | Michael Soroka 3.31 · 3.09 · 18.3% · 111.1 | Randy Vásquez 4.01 · 4.32 · 8.5% · 134.2 | NL WC: AZ elim 1 |
| TEX 80-81 @ MIN 76-85 | 21:10 ● (3:10 p.m.) | G3/3 | MacKenzie Gore 4.59 · 3.86 · 14.0% · 170.2 | Dean Kremer 4.97 · 4.86 · 15.5% · 83.1 | AL West: tied (HOU, TEX) |
| STL 77-84 @ MIL 102-59 | 21:10 ● (3:10 p.m.) | G3/3 | Andre Pallante 3.61 · 3.71 · 8.7% · 157.0 | Jacob Misiorowski 1.86 · 2.16 · 31.7% · 169.1 | — |
| ATL 94-67 @ MIA 79-82 | 21:10 ● (3:10 p.m.) | G3/3 | JR Ritchie 4.79 · 5.54 · 8.3% · 67.2 | Janson Junk 4.31 · 4.12 · 10.3% · 119.0 | — |
| CLE 85-76 @ KC 68-93 | 21:10 ● (3:10 p.m.) | G3/3 | Parker Messick 2.55 · 3.07 · 19.6% · 183.1 | Daniel Lynch IV (9/55 GS) 4.13 · 4.33 · 8.4% · 80.2 | — |
| PIT 81-80 @ DET 76-85 | 21:10 ● (3:10 p.m.) | G3/3 | Jared Jones 3.87 · 3.29 · 21.6% · 97.2 | River Ryan 0.00 · 2.10 · 16.7% · 3.0 | — |
| COL 58-103 @ CWS 83-78 | 21:10 ● (3:10 p.m.) | G3/3 | Kyle Freeland 6.58 · 4.96 · 13.0% · 131.1 | Anthony Kay 4.53 · 4.80 · 10.3% · 153.0 | — |
The Race
| Division | Leader | Chaser | Lead | Games left | Magic # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL West | Astros | Rangers | tied | 1 | 2 |
| Team | W-L | vs. 3rd wild card |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 93-68 | +10 |
| Red Sox | 87-74 | +4 |
| White Sox | 83-78 | cut line |
| Rangers | 80-81 | -3 |
| Orioles | 79-82 | -4 |
| Blue Jays | 78-83 | -5 |
| Team | W-L | vs. 3rd wild card |
|---|---|---|
| Padres | 90-71 | +3 |
| Cubs | 88-73 | +1 |
| Phillies | 87-74 | cut line |
| D-backs | 86-75 | -1 |
| [AL West] HOU 80-81 · TEX 80-81 · tied · magic HOU 1 (tiebreaker counted), TEX 2 |
|---|
| Tonight: HOU @ ATH 21:05 CEST · TEX @ MIN 21:10 CEST |
| Decided tonight: HOU wins + TEX losses >= 1; or TEX wins + HOU losses >= 2 (HOU 1 game, TEX 1) |
| Tiebreaker: HOU · head-to-head 9-4, final |
| Remaining: HOU 1 at ATH (64-97) · TEX 1 at MIN (76-85) |
| [NL 3rd wild card] PHI 87-74 · AZ 86-75 · 1.0 · magic PHI 1 |
|---|
| Tonight: TB @ PHI 21:05 CEST · AZ @ SD 21:10 CEST |
| Decided tonight: PHI wins + AZ losses >= 1; or AZ wins + PHI losses >= 2 (PHI 1 game, AZ 1) |
| Tiebreaker: AZ · head-to-head 3-3 → intradivision AZ 32-19 (1 left) v PHI 28-24 (0 left), locked |
| Remaining: PHI 1 vs TB (98-63) · AZ 1 at SD (90-71) |
| If the season ended today |
|---|
| AL: #1 TB bye · #2 CLE bye · #3 HOU v #6 CWS · #4 NYY v #5 BOS |
| NL: #1 MIL bye · #2 LAD bye · #3 ATL v #6 PHI · #4 SD v #5 CHC |
All 30 teams
| Team | W-L | GB | L10 | Strk | RD | Pythag W-L | Clinch | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL East | ||||||||
| TB | 98-63 | — | 6-4 | W2 | +90 | 90-71 | z | |
| NYY | 93-68 | 5.0 | 5-5 | W1 | +138 | 96-65 | w | |
| BOS | 87-74 | 11.0 | 5-5 | W2 | +82 | 90-71 | w | |
| BAL | 79-82 | 19.0 | 6-4 | L1 | -21 | 78-83 | e | |
| TOR | 78-83 | 20.0 | 3-7 | L1 | -50 | 75-86 | e | |
| AL Central | ||||||||
| CLE | 85-76 | — | 9-1 | W3 | +12 | 82-79 | y | |
| CWS | 83-78 | 2.0 | 6-4 | L1 | +54 | 86-75 | w | |
| MIN | 76-85 | 9.0 | 6-4 | L1 | -60 | 75-86 | e | |
| DET | 76-85 | 9.0 | 4-6 | W2 | +73 | 88-73 | e | ▲1 WC ▲1 |
| KC | 68-93 | 17.0 | 2-8 | L3 | -121 | 69-92 | e | |
| AL West | ||||||||
| HOU | 80-81 | — | 4-6 | W1 | -41 | 76-85 | ||
| TEX | 80-81 | — | 5-5 | W1 | -44 | 76-85 | ||
| SEA | 75-86 | 5.0 | 5-5 | W1 | -62 | 74-87 | e | |
| ATH | 64-97 | 16.0 | 3-7 | L1 | -229 | 60-101 | e | |
| LAA | 62-99 | 18.0 | 4-6 | L1 | -93 | 71-90 | e | |
| NL East | ||||||||
| ATL | 94-67 | — | 6-4 | W1 | +118 | 93-68 | y | |
| PHI | 87-74 | 7.0 | 4-6 | L4 | +11 | 82-79 | ||
| MIA | 79-82 | 15.0 | 5-5 | L1 | +1 | 81-80 | e | |
| WSH | 76-85 | 18.0 | 6-4 | L1 | +4 | 81-80 | e | |
| NYM | 74-87 | 20.0 | 5-5 | W1 | -30 | 77-84 | e | |
| NL Central | ||||||||
| MIL | 102-59 | — | 8-2 | W4 | +212 | 102-59 | z | |
| CHC | 88-73 | 14.0 | 4-6 | L2 | +143 | 94-67 | w | |
| PIT | 81-80 | 21.0 | 6-4 | L2 | +26 | 83-78 | e | |
| STL | 77-84 | 25.0 | 2-8 | L3 | -27 | 78-83 | e | |
| CIN | 75-86 | 27.0 | 5-5 | W1 | -156 | 65-96 | e | |
| NL West | ||||||||
| LAD | 99-62 | — | 7-3 | W2 | +197 | 101-60 | y | |
| SD | 90-71 | 9.0 | 8-2 | W1 | +36 | 84-77 | w | |
| AZ | 86-75 | 13.0 | 6-4 | L1 | +14 | 82-79 | ||
| SF | 65-96 | 34.0 | 3-7 | L4 | -87 | 72-89 | e | |
| COL | 58-103 | 41.0 | 2-8 | W1 | -190 | 64-97 | e |
Game of the Night: Pirates 3, Tigers 4
- Drama Index 4.32 ★★★★★ · 1 lead change · Tigers came back from 2 down · peak leverage 6.23 (bottom 9th)
- Top WPA: Eduardo Valencia +0.58 (batter) · Javier Báez +0.27 (batter) · Hao-Yu Lee +0.23 (batter)
- Bottom WPA: Mason Montgomery -0.91 (pitcher) · Kevin McGonigle -0.27 (batter) · Max Clark -0.25 (batter)
Watch: condensed game, 13 min · recap, 4 min (MLB.com)
| Inning | Matchup | Result | Win probability | WPA | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bot 9th | Eduardo Valencia vs. Mason Montgomery | Home Run | DET 17% → 100% | +0.83 | 6.23 |
| Bot 6th | Javier Báez vs. Evan Sisk | Double | DET 33% → 55% | +0.22 | 3.19 |
| Bot 9th | Hao-Yu Lee vs. Mason Montgomery | Double | DET 11% → 30% | +0.19 | 2.88 |
Watch
- Dodgers 4, Giants 3 · condensed game, 13 min (MLB.com)
- Angels 4, Mariners 8 · condensed game, 11 min (MLB.com)
- D-backs 7, Padres 10 · condensed game, 14 min (MLB.com)
- Rockies 9, White Sox 6 · condensed game, 14 min (MLB.com)
- Cardinals 2, Brewers 3 · condensed game, 11 min (MLB.com)
Top Performers
| Starter | Game | IP | H | R (ER) | BB | K | Pitches | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder | CIN @ TOR | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 79 | 68 |
| Jonah Tong | NYM @ WSH | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 87 | 68 |
| Hayden Wesneski | HOU @ ATH | 7.0 | 6 | 2 (1) | 1 | 5 | 82 | 67 |
| Brent Suter | ATL @ MIA | 3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 43 | 59 |
| Tanner Bibee | CLE @ KC | 6.0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 94 | 57 |
| Batter | Team | Line | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Valencia | DET | 1-for-5, HR, 2 RBI | +0.58 |
| A.J. Ewing | NYM | 1-for-3, HR, 3 RBI, BB | +0.44 |
| Drew Cavanaugh | SF | 2-for-2, 3B, 2B, 1 RBI | +0.33 |
| Manny Machado | SD | 2-for-5, HR, 3 RBI | +0.30 |
| Brice Turang | MIL | 1-for-3, HR, 2 RBI, BB | +0.30 |
Statcast Corner
- 680 tracked balls in play, 40% hard-hit (95+ mph), 60 barrels
- 39 pitches at 100+ mph from 7 pitchers
| Category | Player | Detail | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastest pitch | Justin Martinez (AZ) | 102.8 mph (165 km/h) sinker to Jackson Merrill | AZ @ SD, bot 8 |
| Unluckiest out | Isaac Collins (KC) | line drive out, xBA .886, 105.6 mph (170 km/h), caught by CF Petey Halpin | CLE @ KC, bot 9 |
| Hardest-hit ball | James Wood (WSH) | 113.0 mph (182 km/h) single off Jonah Tong | NYM @ WSH, bot 1 |
| Longest home run | Alec Burleson (STL) | 432 ft (132 m), 111.6 mph (180 km/h) | STL @ MIL, top 3 |
Stat Lab · Lesson 3: BABIP: luck, speed and defense
Oneil Cruz went hitless in one plate appearances in a 4-3 Pirates loss to the Tigers last night. He put zero balls in play, and none fell in. Over the season his balls in play have dropped for hits at a .397 rate, while the league sits at .290. That gap is worth about 22 hits, and the stat that measures it is BABIP.
The idea. BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is the share of batted balls that stay in the park and turn into hits. Strikeouts and walks are left out, and so are home runs, since no fielder can play them. Most hitters land near the league mark, because once the ball is in play the defense, the park and plain luck have a large say. Three things can move it for real: hard line-drive contact, which fielders can’t reach in time; speed, which turns routine grounders into infield hits; and spraying the ball to all fields. The rest tends to fade: regression to the mean.
The math. BABIP = (H − HR) ÷ (AB − K − HR + SF). For Oneil Cruz: 103 hits minus 20 homers leaves 83 hits on balls in play. His at-bats minus strikeouts and homers, plus a few sacrifice flies, come to about 209 balls in play, and 83 ÷ 209 = .397. Now give his 209 at-bats that ended in a ball in play the league rate: .290 × 209 + 20 homers ≈ 81 hits in 368 at-bats, an average of .219 instead of .280.
The scale. League BABIP is .290 this season, and most regulars finish somewhere between .260 and .330. Statcast offers a second opinion through xBA, which prices every batted ball by exit velocity and launch angle: his is .249 against a real .280. His average runs 31 points ahead of it, a sign that luck has helped. The speed check: 30 stolen bases and one triple this season.
What it doesn’t tell you:
- A hitter’s BABIP takes well over a season of balls in play to settle, so a hot month means almost nothing.
- BABIP ignores strikeouts entirely: Oneil Cruz strikes out in 33% of his plate appearances, and none of that shows up in it.
- Career norms beat league norms. A fast line-drive hitter can sit 30 points above the league for years, so compare a hitter with his own history before calling it luck.
Try it. Pick a hitter from last night’s box scores and compute his BABIP from his season line: (H − HR) ÷ (AB − K − HR), ignoring sacrifice flies. Then check his xBA against his average. A high BABIP with an average well above xBA is the one to expect to cool off.
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: BABIP · FanGraphs Library: luck · FanGraphs Library: regression
Check yourself
- Q1. Oneil Cruz has 83 hits on about 209 balls in play. How many more hits would lift his BABIP by ten points?
- Q2. Why are home runs left out of BABIP?
- Q3. A slow slugger and a fast leadoff man both have a .330 BABIP. Whose number is more likely to hold up?
Show answers
- A1. About 2.1: .010 × 209. A handful of bloopers over a whole season moves BABIP ten points, which is why it is so noisy.
- A2. Because no fielder can play them. BABIP asks how often a ball the defense can reach falls in; a homer never gives the defense that chance.
- A3. The leadoff man’s: speed turns some grounders into hits year after year. The slugger’s .330 has less skill behind it, so expect more regression.
Seen Last Night: Intentional walk
Intentional walk. Lazaro Montes got the ultimate compliment in the bottom of the 5th of the Angels-Mariners game: the Angels would rather give him first base than pitch to him.
The intentional walk is rarer than it used to be, partly because teams learned how seldom it pays. By run expectancy, an extra runner on base makes a big inning more likely, and the hitter who follows is often better than the manager hopes.
Transaction Wire
- Cubs: claimed RHP Julian Aguiar off waivers from Reds · MLB Trade Rumors
- Cubs: designated LHP Antoine Kelly for assignment · MLB Trade Rumors
- Nationals: designated RHP Chase Hampton for assignment · MLB Trade Rumors
- Rangers: 3B Josh Jung to the 10-day IL (right hand, 3.2 WAR this season) · MLB Trade Rumors
- Padres: RHP Casey Mize to the 15-day IL (right ankle, 2.3 WAR this season) · MLB Trade Rumors
- Padres: outrighted RHP Alek Jacob to ACL Padres
- Twins: SS Kaelen Culpepper back from the 10-day IL
- Tigers: RF Kerry Carpenter moved to the 60-day IL (left foot)
More moves (24)
- Cubs: optioned RHP Julian Aguiar to ACL Cubs
- D-backs: designated DH Jesús Sánchez for assignment · MLB Trade Rumors
- D-backs: recalled DH Adrian Del Castillo from Reno Aces
- Giants: recalled LHP Seth Lonsway from Sacramento River Cats
- Giants: optioned RHP Yunior Marte to Sacramento River Cats
- Mets: recalled RHP Chayce McDermott from Syracuse Mets
- Mets: optioned LHP Jefry Yan to FCL Mets
- Nationals: LHP Connelly Early back from the 60-day IL
- Nationals: optioned RHP Luis Perales to Rochester Red Wings
- Padres: 1B Gavin Sheets back from the 10-day IL
- Padres: recalled RHP Griffin Canning from ACL Padres
- Padres: optioned LHP Kyle Hart to ACL Padres
- Pirates: recalled LHP Hunter Barco from Indianapolis Indians
- Pirates: optioned RHP Wilber Dotel to FCL Pirates
- Rangers: recalled DH Logan O’Hoppe from Round Rock Express
- Rangers: recalled LHP Robby Ahlstrom from Round Rock Express
- Rangers: optioned RHP Gavin Collyer to ACL Rangers
- Royals: 3B Nick Loftin to the paternity list
- Royals: recalled LF Matthew Lugo from Omaha Storm Chasers
- Tigers: optioned LHP Andrew Sears to Toledo Mud Hens
- Tigers: status change for RHP Justin Verlander · MLB Trade Rumors
- Twins: RHP Jeff Hoffman to the 15-day IL
- White Sox: C Jake Rogers to the paternity list
- White Sox: recalled C Drew Romo from Charlotte Knights
Around the World
- NPB (Japan): Marines 4, Lions 5 (walk-off) · Fighters 2, Buffaloes 0 (shutout) · Tigers 8, BayStars 3 · Golden Eagles 0, Hawks 4 (shutout) · Dragons 3, Swallows 5 (walk-off)
- KBO (Korea): Eagles 2, Dinos 3 · Twins 1, Tigers 5 · Heroes 10, Wiz 1
- CPBL (Taiwan): Lions 3, Hawks 2 · Brothers 7, Guardians 3 · Monkeys 5, Dragons 3
Around the Web
Last Night’s Games
- Pirates 3, Tigers 4 — How Hinch, Tigers ‘totally blindsided’ Verlander with a perfect sendoff (MLB.com)
- Dodgers 4, Giants 3 — Treinen injures shoulder, no longer an option for Dodgers’ playoff ‘pen (MLB.com)
- D-backs 7, Padres 10 — D-backs going down to the wire, needing win and help on final day (MLB.com)
- Rockies 9, White Sox 6 — Disappointed? Sure. But White Sox are excited for playoffs (MLB.com)
- Cardinals 2, Brewers 3 — Cap Yeli! Yelich first to wear ‘C’ as captain in Brewers’ history (MLB.com)
- Guardians 11, Royals 5 — Guardians clinch 7th Central title in last 11 years, secure 1st-round bye (MLB.com)
- Rangers 6, Twins 2 — Bottom of the order steps up to keep Rangers’ AL West hopes alive entering Game 162 (MLB.com)
- Astros 13, Athletics 2 — Astros control destiny in Game 162 as they battle for AL West crown (MLB.com)
- Rays 12, Phillies 1 — Reeling Phillies have one more game to save their season (MLB.com)
News
- Padres lock up No. 4 seed, will host Cubs in Wild Card Series — MLB.com
- Three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer plans to wait until offseason to decide on future — AP via NBC Sports
- Could the Phillies blow their playoff berth? How recent slump, surging D-backs have made wild-card race messy — CBS Sports
Transactions & Rumors
- Phillies To Activate Jesús Luzardo — MLB Trade Rumors
- Brewers’ Joey Ortiz Undergoes MRI — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (6)
Analysis
- FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: September 26, 2026 — FanGraphs
- Brandon Lowe and the Pirates Make Perfect Long-Term Sense — Just Baseball
- PLV Decision Value Weekly: Playoff Offenses (Part 2) — Pitcher List
Listen
- Pitching Legend: Justin Verlander ‘s FINAL start as a Detroit Tiger | Back to the Bullpen — Locked On MLB · 32 min
- Effectively Wild Episode 2536: Wrong Division — Effectively Wild · 28 min
- Starkville | Pat Murphy Visits Starkville — Rates & Barrels · 56 min
Terms in This Post
Run Expectancy (RE24)
The average number of runs a team scores from a given base-out state until the end of the inning. There are 24 states: eight base situations times zero, one or two outs.
It prices every strategy decision in runs, which is how analysts showed that most sacrifice bunts and many steal attempts cost more than they gain.
- 0.1: Bases empty, two outs
- 0.5: Bases empty, nobody out
- 2.3: Bases loaded, nobody out
Sources & Notes
Assembled automatically each morning by The Daily Whiff’s software from MLB Stats API and Baseball Savant data. How this site works
Season numbers are through Sept. 26, 2026; advanced metrics from the MLB Stats API (FIP, xFIP, WAR, wRC+) can run a day behind. Data: MLB Advanced Media, used under its individual, non-commercial terms; highlight videos link to MLB.com.
Around the Web headlines link to their outlets and belong to their publishers; no excerpts or images are reproduced. Tables, analysis and charts © The Daily Whiff. Independent fan site, not affiliated with MLB or any club.
Glossaries: MLB glossary · FanGraphs Library