Guardians top Royals 12-9; AL West tied with 2 to play

Fri, Sept. 25 · 17 games · Stat Lab #2: WPA: credit and blame, one play at a time · 16-min read

Press time 15:15 CEST · Final 17/17 · Statcast: posted

Last Night at a Glance

  • Multi-homer games: Pete Alonso (BAL) 2 HR · Carter Jensen (KC) 2 HR · Munetaka Murakami (CWS) 2 HR
  • Grand slams: Dylan Beavers (BAL), inning 4
  • 10+ strikeouts: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) 10 K · Tarik Skubal (LAD) 10 K
  • Complete games: Eury Pérez (MIA), 0 R
  • Comebacks: Red Sox from 3 down: Cubs 3, Red Sox 4, G1 · Blue Jays from 3 down: Reds 5, Blue Jays 6
  • Shutouts: Cubs 0, Red Sox 2, G2 · Rays 2, Phillies 0 · Braves 0, Marlins 3 · Dodgers 2, Giants 0

Scoreboard

MatchupFinalDramaDecisionsLinks
CLE @ KC12-94.58 ★★★★★W Gaddis · L PearsonBox · Savant
CIN @ TOR5-63.60 ★★★★W Fluharty · L Mey · S VarlandBox · Savant
CHC @ BOS (G1)3-43.33 ★★★★W Weissert · L Civale · S BurgosBox · Savant
NYM @ WSH6-73.20 ★★★★W Varland · L Pintaro · S GrayBox · Savant
HOU @ ATH5-62.87 ★★★W Lopez · L Brown · S HarrisBox · Savant
STL @ MIL4-82.77 ★★★W Uribe · L GastelumBox · Savant
CHC @ BOS (G2)0-22.73 ★★★W Paez · L AssadBox · Savant
BAL @ NYY (G2)3-62.65 ★★★W Warren · L YoungBox · Savant
ATL @ MIA0-32.26 ★★★W Pérez · L HolmesBox · Savant
PIT @ DET7-82.16 ★★W Jobe · L Chandler · S JansenBox · Savant
TB @ PHI2-01.91 ★★W Peralta · L Sánchez · S BakerBox · Savant
LAA @ SEA7-51.86 ★★W Detmers · L MillerBox · Savant
AZ @ SD11-41.52 ★★W Pfaadt · L MizeBox · Savant
COL @ CWS1-61.49 ★W Burke · L SuganoBox · Savant
LAD @ SF2-01.49 ★W Skubal · L Marte · S ScottBox · Savant
TEX @ MIN2-101.29 ★W Ryan · L deGromBox · Savant
BAL @ NYY (G1)10-21.23 ★W Suárez · L BeckBox · Savant
Sorted by Drama Index: how much win probability swung during the game.

Tonight (CEST)

Sat, Sept. 26 · 13 games · 6 start before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 15:14 CEST

MatchupStart CEST (ET)SeriesAway SPHome SPStakes
NYM 73-87
@ WSH 76-84
18:35 ●
(12:35 p.m.)
G2/3Jonah Tong
4.21 · 3.80 · 10.5% · 25.2
Connelly Early
3.44 · 4.61 · 15.1% · 91.2
—
PIT 81-79
@ DET 75-85
19:10 ●
(1:10 p.m.)
G2/3Kirby Yates (0/45 GS)
3.32 · 3.25 · 18.0% · 40.2
Justin Verlander
12.27 · 7.74 · -5.3% · 3.2
—
CIN 74-86
@ TOR 78-82
21:07 ●
(3:07 p.m.)
G2/3Rhett Lowder
6.01 · 4.76 · 8.1% · 127.1
Trey Yesavage
3.67 · 4.13 · 12.2% · 95.2
—
LAD 98-62
@ SF 65-95
22:05 ●
(4:05 p.m.)
G2/3Blake Snell
1.86 · 1.73 · 22.9% · 38.2
Matt Wilkinson
3.65 · 4.23 · 14.1% · 24.2
—
TEX 79-81
@ MIN 76-84
22:10 ●
(4:10 p.m.)
G2/3Nathan Eovaldi
4.27 · 4.22 · 18.2% · 141.1
Bailey Ober
4.21 · 4.52 · 10.3% · 126.0
AL West: tied (HOU, TEX)
ATL 93-67
@ MIA 79-81
22:10 ●
(4:10 p.m.)
G2/3Brent Suter (3/53 GS)
3.48 · 3.61 · 13.7% · 88.0
Jack Ralston (0/15 GS)
4.50 · 5.91 · 13.0% · 16.0
—
STL 77-83
@ MIL 101-59
Sun 01:10
(7:10 p.m.)
G2/3Quinn Mathews
3.65 · 3.80 · 11.1% · 44.1
Dustin May
4.67 · 3.60 · 14.8% · 142.2
—
CLE 84-76
@ KC 68-92
Sun 01:10
(7:10 p.m.)
G2/3Tanner Bibee
4.35 · 4.60 · 11.7% · 182.0
Michael Wacha
3.33 · 4.31 · 12.8% · 194.1
AL Central: CLE magic 2
COL 57-103
@ CWS 83-77
Sun 01:10
(7:10 p.m.)
G2/3Jose Quintana
5.40 · 5.70 · 2.0% · 45.0
Davis Martin
3.84 · 3.82 · 12.5% · 145.1
AL Central: CWS elim 2
TB 97-63
@ PHI 87-73
Sun 01:15
(7:15 p.m.)
G2/3Griffin Jax
3.62 · 3.79 · 17.8% · 109.1
TBDNL WC: PHI magic 2
AZ 86-74
@ SD 89-71
Sun 02:40
(8:40 p.m.)
G2/3TBDWalker Buehler
4.56 · 4.45 · 11.4% · 150.0
NL WC: AZ elim 2
LAA 62-98
@ SEA 74-86
Sun 03:40
(9:40 p.m.)
G3/4Ryan Johnson
4.93 · 5.38 · 9.0% · 95.0
Kade Anderson
4.18 · 3.72 · 15.3% · 32.1
—
HOU 79-81
@ ATH 64-96
Sun 03:40
(9:40 p.m.)
G3/4Hayden Wesneski
3.50 · 3.71 · 10.0% · 54.0
Jack Perkins (16/36 GS)
5.90 · 4.58 · 16.0% · 116.0
AL West: tied (HOU, TEX)
Prague time (CEST), US Eastern in brackets; W-L entering the day. SP: announced probable starter (TBD = not yet), season ERA · FIP · K-BB% · IP; a/b GS = starts/games for a pitcher who mostly relieves. Stakes: our magic (clinch) and elimination numbers from W-L, tiebreakers ignored. ● = starts before 23:00 CEST.

The Race

DivisionLeaderChaserLeadGames leftMagic #
AL CentralGuardiansWhite Sox122
AL WestAstrosRangerstied23
Open division races. Magic number: leader wins plus chaser losses needed to clinch, from W-L alone (tiebreakers not counted).
TeamW-Lvs. 3rd wild card
Yankees93-68+9.5
Red Sox87-74+3.5
White Sox83-77cut line
Rangers79-81-4
Orioles79-82-4.5
Blue Jays78-82-5
AL wild card: the top three get in.
TeamW-Lvs. 3rd wild card
Padres89-71+2
Cubs88-73+0.5
Phillies87-73cut line
D-backs86-74-1
NL wild card: the top three get in.
[AL Central] CLE 84-76 · CWS 83-77 · 1.0 · magic CLE 2
Tonight: CLE @ KC 01:10 CEST · COL @ CWS 01:10 CEST
Decided tonight: CLE wins + CWS losses >= 2 (CLE 1 game, CWS 1)
Tiebreaker: CWS · head-to-head 7-6, final
Remaining: CLE 2 at KC (68-92) · CWS 2 vs COL (57-103)
[AL West] HOU 79-81 · TEX 79-81 · tied · magic HOU 2 (tiebreaker counted), TEX 3
Tonight: TEX @ MIN 22:10 CEST · HOU @ ATH 03:40 CEST
Decided tonight: HOU wins + TEX losses >= 2 (HOU 1 game, TEX 1)
Tiebreaker: HOU · head-to-head 9-4, final
Remaining: HOU 2 at ATH (64-96) · TEX 2 at MIN (76-84)
[NL 3rd wild card] PHI 87-73 · AZ 86-74 · 1.0 · magic PHI 2
Tonight: TB @ PHI 01:15 CEST · AZ @ SD 02:40 CEST
Decided tonight: PHI wins + AZ losses >= 2 (PHI 1 game, AZ 1)
Tiebreaker: AZ · head-to-head 3-3 → intradivision AZ 32-18 (2 left) v PHI 28-24 (0 left), locked
Remaining: PHI 2 vs TB (97-63) · AZ 2 at SD (89-71)
If the season ended today
AL: #1 TB bye · #2 CLE bye · #3 HOU v #6 CWS · #4 NYY v #5 BOS
NL: #1 MIL bye · #2 LAD bye · #3 ATL v #6 PHI · #4 SD v #5 CHC
All 30 teams
TeamW-LGBL10StrkRDPythag W-LClinchΔ
AL East
TB97-63—6-4W1+7988-72z
NYY93-684.55-5W1+13896-65w
BOS87-7410.55-5W2+8290-71w
BAL79-8218.56-4L1-2178-83e
TOR78-8219.03-7W1-4675-85e
AL Central
CLE84-76—8-2W2+681-79x
CWS83-771.06-4W2+5786-74x
MIN76-848.06-4W3-5675-85e
DET75-859.04-6W1+7288-72e
KC68-9216.02-8L2-11569-91e
AL West
HOU79-81—4-6L1-5275-85
TEX79-81—5-5L1-4875-85
SEA74-865.04-6L2-6673-87eWC ▼1
ATH64-9615.03-7W1-21860-100e
LAA62-9817.05-5W2-8971-89e
NL East
ATL93-67—5-5L2+11392-68y
PHI87-736.04-6L3+2282-78
MIA79-8114.05-5W1+681-79e
WSH76-8417.07-3W3+1081-79e
NYM73-8720.04-6L2-3676-84e
NL Central
MIL101-59—8-2W3+211101-59z
CHC88-7313.54-6L2+14394-67w
PIT81-7920.06-4L1+2783-77e
STL77-8324.03-7L2-2677-83e
CIN74-8627.04-6L1-16064-96e
NL West
LAD98-62—7-3W1+196100-60y
SD89-719.07-3L1+3384-76w
AZ86-7412.07-3W6+1782-78
SF65-9533.03-7L3-8671-89e
COL57-10341.02-8L5-19363-97e
GB: games behind the division leader. RD: run differential. Pythag W-L: the record runs scored and allowed predict (exponent 1.83). Clinch: z best record in the league, y division, w wild card, x playoff berth, e eliminated. Δ: overnight move in the division (WC: wild-card order).

Game of the Night: Guardians 12, Royals 9

  • Drama Index 4.58 ★★★★★ · 2 lead changes · peak leverage 6.87 (top 9th)
  • Top WPA: Carter Jensen +0.55 (batter) · José Ramírez +0.37 (batter) · Austin Hedges +0.20 (batter)
  • Bottom WPA: Noah Cameron -0.57 (pitcher) · Nate Pearson -0.35 (pitcher) · Hunter Gaddis -0.33 (pitcher)
Win probability, Guardians 12 at Royals 9, Sept. 25, 2026. Biggest swing: Carter Jensen home run, 8th inning, +41%.
Above the middle line the Royals were favored, below it the Guardians.
InningMatchupResultWin probabilityWPALI
Bot 8thCarter Jensen vs. Hunter GaddisHome RunKC 12% → 53%+0.411.71
Top 9thJosé Ramírez vs. Nate PearsonWalkCLE 54% → 85%+0.316.87
Top 5thDavid Fry vs. Noah CameronHome RunCLE 39% → 61%+0.231.84
The three biggest swings.

Watch

Top Performers

StarterGameIPHR (ER)BBKPitchesGSc
Eury PérezMIA vs. ATL9.0101810598
Tarik SkubalLAD @ SF7.0300107586
Reid DetmersLAA @ SEA6.020278675
Robert GasserMIL vs. STL6.011198772
Cristopher SánchezPHI vs. TB7.05211010068
Best starts by Game Score v2 (50 is average, 70+ is excellent).
BatterTeamLineWPA
Carter JensenKC2-for-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI+0.55
Roman AnthonyBOS4-for-6, 3B, 2 2B, 2 BB+0.42
José RamírezCLE1-for-4, 2 RBI, BB+0.37
Kazuma OkamotoTOR2-for-3, 2 2B, 3 RBI, BB+0.37
Spencer TorkelsonDET3-for-4, HR, 3B, 2B, 3 RBI+0.33
Best bats by Win Probability Added (+0.50 = half a win).

Statcast Corner

  • 848 tracked balls in play, 41% hard-hit (95+ mph), 72 barrels
  • 20 pitches at 100+ mph from 10 pitchers
CategoryPlayerDetailWhere
Longest home runPete Alonso (BAL)471 ft (144 m), 112.8 mph (182 km/h)BAL @ NYY, top 7
Unluckiest outJunior Caminero (TB)fly ball out, xBA .946, 107.0 mph (172 km/h), caught by CF Justin CrawfordTB @ PHI, top 3
Hardest-hit ballSpencer Jones (NYY)114.8 mph (185 km/h) single off Alex HoppeBAL @ NYY, bot 9
Fastest pitchJhoan Duran (PHI)100.8 mph (162 km/h) four-seamer to Jonathan ArandaTB @ PHI, top 8

Stat Lab · Lesson 2: WPA: credit and blame, one play at a time

Hunter Gaddis was on the mound for the biggest swing of the night. Bottom of the 8th, two outs, the Royals trailing 7-5: Carter Jensen hit a two-run homer, which tied the game 7-7, and the Guardians’ chance of winning went from 88.1% to 47.4%. Oddly, he still got the win. A single number splits that swing between the two of them.

The idea. Win expectancy is the chance a team goes on to win from a given spot: inning, score, outs and runners on base, estimated from how thousands of past games played out from the same spot. WPA (Win Probability Added) is how far one play moved that number. The batter is credited with the change and the pitcher is charged the same amount with the opposite sign. Add up a player’s plays and you get his WPA for a game or a season: not what happened, but how much it mattered.

The math. WPA = win probability after − win probability before = 52.6 − 11.9 = +40.7 points, usually written in wins: +0.407. Carter Jensen gets +0.407 for the homer, and Hunter Gaddis is charged −0.407. Over the whole game, Carter Jensen’s plate appearances added up to +0.55 and Hunter Gaddis’ to −0.33. Add every play together and the winners’ total equals 100% minus their win probability at the first pitch.

The scale. Most plate appearances barely register. Across last night’s 1,274 plate appearances the median swing was 2.2 points, and only eight plays moved win probability by 20 or more. A 40.7-point swing is roughly 18 times the typical one. Over a season the best hitters and relievers finish a few wins above zero, and an average player sits near zero, because every point one team gains, the other loses.

What it doesn’t tell you:

  • WPA rewards timing, not talent. The same homer in a blowout would have been worth a point or two; it tells you what mattered, not who played best.
  • It hands the defense’s entire share to the pitcher. The fielders who made or missed a play don’t appear in it at all.
  • It depends on opportunity: closers and cleanup hitters get more big moments, so season WPA partly measures how a player is used.
  • WPA and the pitcher win answer different questions. Hunter Gaddis finished the game at −0.33, yet he was credited with the win, because his team took the lead for good while he was the pitcher of record.

Try it. Pick another close game from last night and the moment you think mattered most. Estimate the win probability just before and after it, subtract, and check your guess against that game’s win-probability chart. Was it really the biggest swing?

Go deeper: MLB Glossary: WPA · FanGraphs Library: WPA · FanGraphs Library: win expectancy

Check yourself

  • Q1. Carter Jensen’s homer moved the Royals from 11.9% to 52.6%. What WPA is charged to Hunter Gaddis?
  • Q2. Why can a walk be worth more WPA than a home run?
  • Q3. A team with a 54% chance of winning at the first pitch goes on to win. What do its players’ WPA numbers for the game add up to?
Show answers
  • A1. −0.407 wins (−40.7 points). The pitcher always gets the batter’s number with the opposite sign.
  • A2. Because WPA measures only the change in win probability, and that depends on the situation. A bases-loaded walk in a tied extra inning can swing a game by 25 points or more; a solo homer in a 9-1 game barely moves it.
  • A3. +0.46 wins. The winners’ WPA always totals 100% minus where they started, here 100 − 54 = 46 points.

Seen Last Night: Sacrifice bunt

Sacrifice bunt. Christian Koss bunted a runner up in the bottom of the 3rd of the Dodgers-Giants game.

Modern teams rarely do it. A runner on first with nobody out is worth about 0.9 runs; move him to second at the cost of an out and the inning is worth about 0.7. The bunt makes sense mainly when one run is all that matters. Either way, a sacrifice bunt never counts as an at-bat.

Go deeper: FanGraphs Library: RE24

Transaction Wire

  • Rays: designated RHP Jake Woodford for assignment · MLB Trade Rumors
  • Brewers: designated RHP Lyon Richardson for assignment · MLB Trade Rumors
  • Brewers: 1B Andrew Vaughn to the 10-day IL (illness, retroactive to Sept. 22, 1.6 WAR this season)
  • Mets: outrighted RHP Xzavion Curry to FCL Mets · MLB Trade Rumors
  • Guardians: outrighted RHP Connor Brogdon to Columbus Clippers · MLB Trade Rumors
  • Mariners: RHP Andrés Muñoz to the 15-day IL (right knee) · MLB Trade Rumors
  • Dodgers: C Dalton Rushing back from the 10-day IL (1.2 WAR this season)
  • Yankees: RHP Fernando Cruz moved to the 60-day IL (right elbow)
More moves (27)
  • Blue Jays: recalled RHP John Klein from Buffalo Bisons
  • Blue Jays: optioned RHP CJ Van Eyk to FCL Blue Jays
  • Brewers: RHP Bryse Wilson back from the 15-day IL
  • Brewers: recalled LF Brandon Lockridge from Nashville Sounds
  • Cardinals: recalled RHP Hancel Rincon from Memphis Redbirds
  • Cardinals: optioned LHP Cooper Hjerpe to Memphis Redbirds
  • Cubs: RHP Gavin Hollowell back from the 15-day IL
  • Cubs: status change for RHP Edward Cabrera
  • D-backs: RHP Corbin Burnes to the 15-day IL · MLB Trade Rumors · The Athletic (subscription)
  • D-backs: recalled RHP Jose Cabrera from Reno Aces
  • Dodgers: optioned 2B Alex Freeland to Oklahoma City Comets
  • Giants: optioned LHP Cesar Perdomo to Sacramento River Cats
  • Giants: status change for RHP Camilo Doval
  • Mariners: recalled RHP Troy Taylor from Tacoma Rainiers
  • Marlins: RHP Tyler Zuber to the 15-day IL
  • Marlins: recalled RHP Wikelman González from Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
  • Mets: recalled RHP Justin Hagenman from Syracuse Mets
  • Mets: optioned RHP Jack Weisenburger to FCL Mets
  • Rays: RHP Manuel Rodríguez back from the 15-day IL
  • Red Sox: recalled RHP Jedixson Paez from Worcester Red Sox
  • Red Sox: optioned LHP Raymond Burgos to Worcester Red Sox
  • Yankees: selected RHP Alexander Cornielle from Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · MLB Trade Rumors
  • Yankees: recalled RHP Brendan Beck from Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
  • Yankees: recalled RHP Yerry De los Santos from Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
  • Yankees: optioned RHP Bradley Hanner to FCL Yankees
  • Yankees: optioned RHP Brendan Beck to FCL Yankees
  • Yankees: optioned RHP Luis Gil to FCL Yankees

Around the World

  • NPB (Japan): Dragons 4, Swallows 5 · Tigers 1, BayStars 2 · Marines 6, Lions 2 · Giants 2, Carp 3 · Hawks 9, Buffaloes 0 (shutout)
  • KBO (Korea): Eagles 7, Dinos 8
  • CPBL (Taiwan): Dragons 2, Lions 3 · Guardians 1, Hawks 2 · Brothers 0, Monkeys 6 (shutout)

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Sources & Notes

Assembled automatically each morning by The Daily Whiff’s software from MLB Stats API and Baseball Savant data. How this site works

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