The Daily Whiff

Championship Series preview: Guardians-Rays

Fri, Oct. 16 · 15 finals around the world · Stat Lab #23: On-base percentage: the art of not making outs · 5-min read

Press time 14:17 CEST

Tonight (CEST)

Sat, Oct. 17 · 1 game · none before 23:00 CEST · starters as of 14:16 CEST

MatchupStart CEST (ET)SeriesAway SPHome SPStakes
TB 98-64
@ CLE 85-77		Sun 02:08
(8:08 p.m.)		ALCS G4 of 7
CLE leads 2-1		Nick Martinez
3.10 · 3.96 · 11.5% · 180.0		Shawn Armstrong (0/41 GS)
4.58 · 4.43 · 9.7% · 35.1		—
Prague time (CEST), US Eastern in brackets; final regular-season W-L. SP: announced probable starter (TBD = not yet), season ERA · FIP · K-BB% · IP; a/b GS = starts/games for a pitcher who mostly relieves. Stakes: series score as of this morning. ● = starts before 23:00 CEST.

Scoreboard

MatchupFinalDramaDecisionsLinks
TB @ CLEPostponed, makeup Oct. 18——
Sorted by Drama Index: how much win probability swung during the game.

Postseason Preview

Championship Series (best of seven) · first pitch Sat, Oct. 17, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET).

Guardians at Rays

TeamW-LRun diffPythag W-LLast 10Streak
Rays98-64+8690-725-5L1
Guardians85-77+1182-808-2L1

Game 4: Sat, Oct. 17, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET) · run-differential edge: Rays by 75.

The Bracket

Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)

  • AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
  • AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
  • NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
  • NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.

Division Series (best of five)

  • AL: Yankees at Rays: Rays win 3-0.
  • AL: White Sox at Guardians: Guardians win 3-2.
  • NL: Padres at Brewers: Brewers win 3-1.
  • NL: Braves at Dodgers: Dodgers win 3-1.

Championship Series (best of seven)

  • AL: Guardians at Rays: Guardians lead 2-1 · Game 4: Sat, Oct. 17, 02:00 CEST (8:00 p.m. ET) · history: up 2-1 in a best-of-seven, 109 of 155 won the series.
  • NL: Dodgers at Brewers: Brewers win 4-0.

Stat Lab · Lesson 23: On-base percentage: the art of not making outs

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros has 179 hits in 567 at-bats this season. His batting average, .316, counts only the hits. His on-base percentage, .432, also counts his 109 walks and the times a pitch hit him, and it sits .116 higher. That gap is the whole lesson: a walk is not a hit, but it is not an out either.

The idea. On-base percentage answers one plain question: how often does a hitter reach base on his own? It counts hits, walks and hit-by-pitches, divided by at-bats, walks, hit-by-pitches and sacrifice flies. Reaching on an error or a fielder’s choice counts as an out: the defense, not the hitter, put him there. Batting average ignores walks; OBP gives them full credit. That matters because an inning lasts exactly three outs, and a hitter who does not make one keeps it alive.

The math. OBP = (hits + walks + hit-by-pitches) ÷ (at-bats + walks + hit-by-pitches + sacrifice flies). Our data lacks his hit-by-pitches and sacrifice flies, so start without them: (179 + 109) ÷ (567 + 109) = 288 ÷ 676 = .426. His published OBP is .432. The extra .006 is the net effect of the missing pieces: hit-by-pitches raise OBP, sacrifice flies lower it. Multiply back: .432 × 692 plate appearances means about 299 times on base. And 1 − .432 = .568, so roughly 57% of his trips to the plate ended without him reaching.

The scale. The league’s OBP this season is about .318. As a rough guide, .360 is very good, .400 is elite and anything under .300 hurts a lineup. Yordan Alvarez’s .432 is .114 above the league, the best among the 176 hitters with 450-plus plate appearances.

What it doesn’t tell you:

  • Every way on base counts the same: a walk and a home run are each one time on base. That is why OPS adds slugging and wOBA gives each event its own weight.
  • A walk moves only the runners who are forced; a single can score a runner from second. OBP does not tell them apart.
  • Intentional walks count too, so a feared slugger with weak hitters behind him collects a few free points.

Try it. Sort a leaderboard by batting average, then by OBP. The hitters who climb the most are the patient ones: check their walk totals.

Go deeper: MLB Glossary: on-base percentage · FanGraphs Library: OBP · MLB Glossary: sacrifice fly

Check yourself

  • Q1. Yordan Alvarez has 179 hits and 109 walks in 567 at-bats. Leaving out hit-by-pitches and sacrifice flies, what is his OBP?
  • Q2. Two hitters both bat .280. One walks far more often than the other. Whose OBP is higher?
  • Q3. Why does a sacrifice fly lower a hitter’s OBP but not his batting average?
Show answers
  • A1. .426: (179 + 109) ÷ (567 + 109). His published figure, .432, also includes his hit-by-pitches and sacrifice flies.
  • A2. The one who walks more. Batting average ignores walks, but OBP counts every walk as a time on base.
  • A3. Batting average leaves sacrifice flies out entirely. OBP puts them in the denominator, and since the hitter did not reach base, each one counts like an out.

Around the World

  • Dominican Winter League: Aguilas 1, Gigantes 4 · Tigres 12, Leones 2 · Estrellas 11, Toros 0 (shutout)
  • Venezuelan Winter League: Bravos 9, Leones 2 · Cardenales 8, Aguilas 5 · Tigres 8, Navegantes 7 (10) · Tiburones 4, Caribes 7
  • Mexican Pacific League: Culiacan 10, Los Mochis 2 · Jalisco 2, Nayarit 5 · Hermosillo 5, Navojoa 2 · Guasave 4, Mazatlan 3 · Obregon 8, Mexicali 9
  • Arizona Fall League: Javelinas 10, Rafters 0 (shutout) · Solar Sox 5, Saguaros 12 · Desert Dogs 3, Scorpions 1

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Built automatically from MLB Stats API data; numbers through Oct. 16, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”. How this site works