The Daily Whiff

Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026No. 51Morning editionNumbers through Fri, Nov. 13Hot StoveFirst spring game in 97 days

16 finals around the world10 roster moves3-min readPress time 16:55 CETHeadlines: 1/20 feeds failed

In this editionVenezuelan Winter LeagueTonightAround the WorldInsideLast Nightp. 2The Wirep. 3Around the Webp. 4

The Whiff

Six at-bats from a dramatic game, one at a time. Make your call before each one plays out.

Play The Whiff

Play before you read on: the pages below can give the score away.

Venezuelan Winter League

Aguilas 6, Bravos 8 (LVBP)

Aguilas 6, Bravos 8 (LVBP). Phillies: signed RHP Geoff Hartlieb to a minor league deal.

Win probability, Aguilas 6 at Bravos 8, Nov. 13, 2026. Biggest swing: Ali Castillo home run, 6th inning, +36%.
Above the middle line the Bravos de Margarita were favored, below it the Aguilas del Zulia.
  • 4.59 Drama Index, Game of the Night
  • 16 finals around the world
  • Countdown: first spring game Fri, Feb. 19 (in 97 days) · Opening Day Thu, March 25

Game of the Night, continued on page 2

Tonight

Jalisco at Hermosillo

  • League Mexican Pacific League
  • First pitch Sun 02:00 CET
  • Jalisco 44%
  • Hermosillo 56%

Built from: 50% → ratings 51% → home field 56% · starters not counted in winter ball

  • Estrellas at Leones · 21:00 CET · Leones 63%
  • Cardenales at Caribes · 21:00 CET · Caribes 56%
  • Tigres at Gigantes · 22:00 CET · Gigantes 52%
  • Santurce at Caguas · 22:21 CET · Caguas 53%

How our forecast works

Around the World

  • LIDOM: Toros 12, Estrellas 6 (10) ★★★★ · Leones 5, Tigres 3 ★★★★ · Aguilas 6, Gigantes 9 ★★★
  • LVBP: Tigres 9, Caribes 6 ★★ · Cardenales 2, Leones 9 ★
  • LMP: Navojoa 3, Los Mochis 5 ★★★★ · Mexicali 4, Guasave 2 ★★★ · Nayarit 2, Obregon 6 ★★ · Jalisco 1, Hermosillo 4 ★ · Mazatlan 1, Culiacan 16 ★
  • LBPRC: Carolina 7, Santurce 0 (shutout) ★★ · San Juan 2, Ponce 17 ★ · Mayaguez 3, Caguas 13 ★
  • AFL: Rafters 5, Javelinas 6 (AFL Semifinals Game 1) ★★★★ · Desert Dogs 4, Saguaros 10 (AFL Semifinals Game 1) ★
TeamWLPctGB
Leones157.682–
Tigres139.5912.0
Gigantes1111.5004.0
Estrellas912.4295.5
Toros913.4096.0
Aguilas813.3816.5
Dominican Winter League standings, in order of winning percentage
TeamWLPctGB
Caribes158.652–
Leones1510.6001.0
Tigres1511.5771.5
Cardenales1211.5223.0
Navegantes1314.4814.0
Bravos1214.4624.5
Tiburones1215.4445.0
Aguilas819.2969.0
Venezuelan Winter League standings, in order of winning percentage
TeamWLPctGB
Guasave1710.630–
Hermosillo1611.5931.0
Mexicali1512.5562.0
Culiacan1512.5562.0
Obregon1512.5562.0
Jalisco1314.4814.0
Los Mochis1314.4814.0
Nayarit1215.4445.0
Mazatlan1116.4076.0
Navojoa819.2969.0
Mexican Pacific League standings, in order of winning percentage
TeamWLPctGB
Caguas51.833–
Carolina53.6251.0
Santurce44.5002.0
Ponce44.5002.0
San Juan24.3333.0
Mayaguez26.2504.0
Puerto Rican Winter League standings, in order of winning percentage

The Daily Whiff · Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 Page 2

Last Night

Game of the Night: Aguilas 6, Bravos 8 (LVBP)

Continued from page 1

  • Drama Index 4.59 ★★★★★ · 2 lead changes · Bravos came back from 2 down · peak leverage 6.09 (top 9th)
  • Top WPA: Ali Castillo +0.40 (batter) · Alexi Amarista +0.28 (batter) · Diosbel Arias +0.23 (batter)
  • Bottom WPA: Manuel Medina -0.55 (pitcher) · Solomon Bates -0.36 (pitcher) · Jonaiker Villalobos -0.18 (pitcher)

Watch: Gameday (MLB.com)

InningMatchupResultWin probabilityWPALI
Top 6thAli Castillo vs. Solomon BatesHome RunZUL 41% → 76%+0.353.20
Bot 7thDiosbel Arias vs. Manuel MedinaDoubleMAR 58% → 88%+0.303.01
Bot 7thAlexi Amarista vs. Manuel MedinaField ErrorMAR 33% → 54%+0.212.85
The three biggest swings.

The Daily Whiff · Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 Page 3

The Wire

Transaction Wire

  • Phillies: signed RHP Geoff Hartlieb to a minor league deal
  • Angels: signed LHP Sammy Peralta to a minor league deal
More moves (8)
  • Athletics: signed LHP Ben Bowden to a minor league deal
  • Braves: signed RF Tyler Freeman to a minor league deal
  • Giants: signed LHP Esmerlin Vinicio to a minor league deal
  • Marlins: signed LHP Luis Palacios to a minor league deal
  • Padres: signed RHP Angel Hernandez to a minor league deal
  • Padres: signed SS Raimundo De Los Santos to a minor league deal
  • Phillies: signed 3B Bryan Ramos to a minor league deal
  • Rangers: signed RHP John Armstrong to a minor league deal

The Daily Whiff · Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 Page 4

Around the Web

News

Transactions & Rumors

Analysis · Prospects · Listen (7)
Analysis
Prospects
Listen

Terms in this edition

Drama Index: Our own measure of how much a game kept both sides guessing: the total of every swing in win probability over the game, divided by 100. A game that one team controls from the first inning scores low; a game full of lead changes and late swings scores high.

Leverage Index (LI): How much the next plate appearance can swing win probability, compared with an average plate appearance. 1.0 is average; 2.0 means twice the usual stakes.

Win Probability Added (WPA): How much one play changed a team’s chance of winning. The batter is credited with the change and the pitcher is charged the same amount with the opposite sign; add up a player’s plays and you get his WPA for a game or a season.

Sources & Notes

Built automatically from MLB Stats API data; numbers through Nov. 13, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. How this site works

Daily puzzle

The Whiff

Six at-bats from last night’s most dramatic game, in the order they happened. Make your call before each one plays out. A new game every morning.

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