Carolina 5, Ponce 4 (LBPRC, 10)

Game of the Night: Carolina 5, Ponce 4 (LBPRC, 10)

Continued from page 1

• Drama Index 4.35 ★★★★★ · 1 lead change · 10 innings · peak leverage 5.22 (bottom 9th)
• Top WPA: Lisbel Diaz +0.58 (batter) · Alexander Castro +0.35 (pitcher) · Jake Gozzo +0.26 (pitcher)
• Bottom WPA: Matt Givin -0.45 (pitcher) · Trent Youngblood -0.29 (batter) · Gabriel Rodriguez -0.29 (pitcher)

Watch: Gameday (MLB.com)

Inning	Matchup	Result	Win probability	WPA	LI
Top 10th	Lisbel Diaz vs. Gabriel Rodriguez	Home Run	CAR 31% → 80%	+0.49	4.58
Bot 6th	Jesmuel Valentín vs. Matt Givin	Single	PON 42% → 70%	+0.28	4.18
Top 10th	Trent Youngblood vs. Gabriel Rodriguez	Groundout	CAR 49% → 31%	-0.18	4.47

Roster Moves by Club

Continued from page 1

• Cardinals: traded RHP Juan García to Red Sox
• Cardinals: designated RHP Chase Hampton for assignment
• Cubs: claimed RHP Eric Orze off waivers from Twins
  Age 29 · 2026: 41.1 IP, 5.66 ERA, 7.9% K-BB · 0.5 WAR
• D-backs: RHP Michael Soroka elected free agency
  Age 29 · 2026: 116.0 IP, 3.41 ERA, 18.0% K-BB · 2.7 WAR
• Giants: traded 2B Nate Furman to Nationals
  Age 25 · 2026: 22 G, .368 OPS, 0 HR · -0.3 WAR
• Mariners: claimed RHP Isaac Mattson off waivers from Pirates
  Age 31 · 2026: 38.2 IP, 5.35 ERA, 10.2% K-BB · 0.3 WAR
• Mets: claimed RHP Jack Anderson off waivers from Twins
  Age 26 · 2026: 12.1 IP, 2.19 ERA, 18.8% K-BB · 0.2 WAR
• Mets: designated 2B Kyren Paris for assignment
  Age 24 · 2026: 8 G, .167 OPS, 0 HR · -0.4 WAR
• Nationals: traded LHP Tony Neubeck to Giants
• Nationals: traded RHP Robert Cranz to Giants
• Nationals: designated LHP Richard Lovelady for assignment
  Age 31 · 2026: 35.0 IP, 4.11 ERA, 4.1% K-BB · -0.5 WAR
• Rays: traded RHP Evan Reifert to Astros
• Rays: RHP Nick Martinez elected free agency
  Age 36 · 2026: 180.0 IP, 3.10 ERA, 11.5% K-BB · 2.9 WAR
• Red Sox: traded LHP Eduardo Rivera to Cardinals
  Age 23 · 2026: 10.0 IP, 6.30 ERA, 9.1% K-BB · 0.1 WAR
• Red Sox: designated RHP Zack Kelly for assignment
  Age 31 · 2026: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 9.9% K-BB · 0.1 WAR
• Red Sox: designated LHP Eduardo Rivera for assignment
• Reds: claimed RHP Paxton Schultz off waivers from Nationals
  Age 28 · 2026: 32.1 IP, 6.40 ERA, 13.1% K-BB · 0.1 WAR
• Reds: claimed RHP Duncan Davitt off waivers from Giants
  Age 27 · 2026: 8.0 IP, 7.88 ERA, 2.7% K-BB · -0.3 WAR
• Tigers: signed RHP Jacob Waguespack
  Age 32 · 2026: 47.0 IP, 2.49 ERA, 9.3% K-BB · -0.1 WAR
• White Sox: claimed 3B Graham Pauley off waivers from Marlins
  Age 26 · 2026: 62 G, .630 OPS, 4 HR · 0.1 WAR

Also: 105 players activated from the injured list

More moves (105)

• Astros: outrighted CF Jake Meyers to Sugar Land Space Cowboys
• Astros: selected C César Salazar from Sugar Land Space Cowboys
• Astros: selected RHP Roddery Muñoz from Sugar Land Space Cowboys
• Athletics: 2B Jeff McNeil elected free agency
• Athletics: LHP Jeffrey Springs elected free agency
• Blue Jays: CF Myles Straw elected free agency
• Blue Jays: outrighted RHP CJ Van Eyk to Buffalo Bisons
• Blue Jays: signed RHP Feremi Suriel to a minor league deal
• Blue Jays: status change for RHP Jake Bloss
• Braves: claimed LHP Mitchell Parker off waivers from Nationals
• Brewers: C Gary Sánchez elected free agency
• Brewers: RHP Antonio Senzatela elected free agency
• Brewers: outrighted LHP Jared Koenig to Nashville Sounds
• Brewers: outrighted RHP Bryse Wilson to Nashville Sounds
• Cardinals: RHP Ryne Stanek elected free agency
• Cubs: LHP Caleb Thielbar elected free agency
• Cubs: RHP Clay Holmes elected free agency
• Cubs: RHP Colin Rea elected free agency
• Cubs: RHP Hunter Harvey elected free agency
• Cubs: outrighted 1B Tyler Austin to Iowa Cubs
• D-backs: outrighted 1B Pavin Smith to Reno Aces
• Giants: designated LHP Reiver Sanmartin for assignment
• Giants: released RHP Tristan Beck
• Giants: outrighted LHP Seth Lonsway to Sacramento River Cats
• Giants: outrighted RHP Joel Kuhnel to Sacramento River Cats
• Giants: status change for C Jesus Rodriguez
• Giants: status change for RHP Randy Rodríguez
• Guardians: claimed DH José Tena off waivers from Nationals
• Mariners: outrighted 3B Patrick Wisdom to Tacoma Rainiers
• Mariners: outrighted 3B Weston Wilson to Tacoma Rainiers
• Mariners: outrighted 3B Will Wilson to Tacoma Rainiers
• Mariners: outrighted LHP Josh Simpson to Tacoma Rainiers
• Mariners: outrighted RHP Troy Watson to Tacoma Rainiers
• Marlins: claimed RHP Cameron Weston off waivers from Mets
• Marlins: released RHP Bradley Blalock
• Marlins: outrighted LHP Patrick Monteverde to Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
• Mets: claimed RHP Pierson Ohl off waivers from Rockies
• Mets: designated SS Christian Cairo for assignment
• Mets: outrighted 1B Eric Wagaman to Syracuse Mets
• Mets: outrighted OF Cristian Pache to Syracuse Mets
• Nationals: designated DH José Tena for assignment
• Nationals: designated LHP Ken Waldichuk for assignment
• Nationals: designated LHP PJ Poulin for assignment
• Nationals: designated RHP Kyle Nicolas for assignment
• Nationals: released RHP Zak Kent
• Nationals: outrighted LHP Ken Waldichuk to Rochester Red Wings
• Nationals: outrighted LHP PJ Poulin to Rochester Red Wings
• Nationals: outrighted LHP Richard Lovelady to Rochester Red Wings
• Orioles: claimed C Zach Morgan off waivers from Giants
• Orioles: claimed LHP Philip Abner off waivers from Mets
• Orioles: claimed RHP Chase Hampton off waivers from Cardinals
• Orioles: claimed RHP Josh White off waivers from Marlins
• Orioles: 1B Ryan Mountcastle elected free agency
• Orioles: CF Leody Taveras elected free agency
• Orioles: outrighted C Yohel Pozo to Norfolk Tides
• Orioles: outrighted LF Heston Kjerstad to Norfolk Tides
• Orioles: outrighted RHP Yosver Zulueta to Norfolk Tides
• Padres: DH Miguel Andujar elected free agency
• Padres: RHP Griffin Canning elected free agency
• Padres: RHP Lucas Giolito elected free agency
• Padres: RHP Nick Pivetta elected free agency
• Padres: selected LHP Luis Gutierrez from El Paso Chihuahuas
• Phillies: claimed 3B Brett Harris off waivers from Giants
• Phillies: claimed 3B Shay Whitcomb off waivers from Giants
• Phillies: C Garrett Stubbs elected free agency
• Phillies: status change for LF Felix Reyes
• Pirates: claimed LF Akil Baddoo off waivers from Brewers
• Rangers: claimed RHP José Buttó off waivers from Giants
• Rangers: C Kyle Higashioka elected free agency
• Rangers: DH Joc Pederson elected free agency
• Rangers: RHP Jakob Junis elected free agency
• Rangers: signed RHP Enrique Pantoja to a minor league deal
• Rays: 3B Nick Madrigal elected free agency
• Rays: CF Cedric Mullins elected free agency
• Rays: outrighted RHP Jonathan Heasley to Durham Bulls
• Rays: selected RF Jack Suwinski from Durham Bulls
• Rays: selected RHP Alexander Alberto from Durham Bulls
• Rays: status change for 2B Jadher Areinamo
• Rays: status change for C Kenny Piper
• Rays: status change for LHP Shane McClanahan
• Rays: status change for RHP Alex Cook
• Rays: status change for RHP Brody Hopkins
• Rays: status change for RHP Casey Legumina
• Rays: status change for RHP Jesse Scholtens
• Rays: status change for RHP Joe Boyle
• Rays: status change for RHP Manuel Rodríguez
• Rays: status change for RHP Mason Englert
• Rays: status change for RHP Ty Johnson
• Rays: status change for SS Carson Williams
• Red Sox: released RHP Zack Kelly
• Reds: signed RHP Many Ramirez to a minor league deal
• Rockies: outrighted 2B Chad Stevens to Albuquerque Isotopes
• Rockies: outrighted RHP Blake Adams to Albuquerque Isotopes
• Rockies: outrighted RHP Eiberson Castellano to Albuquerque Isotopes
• Rockies: outrighted RHP TJ Shook to Albuquerque Isotopes
• Tigers: designated RHP Yilber Díaz for assignment
• Tigers: RHP Kenley Jansen elected free agency
• Tigers: released LHP Bailey Horn
• Tigers: released RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long
• Tigers: outrighted LF Corey Julks to Toledo Mud Hens
• Tigers: outrighted RHP Yilber Díaz to Toledo Mud Hens
• Tigers: RHP RJ Petit returned from Rockies
• White Sox: outrighted CF Junior Perez to Charlotte Knights
• White Sox: outrighted LHP Ky Bush to Charlotte Knights
• Yankees: selected SS Marco Luciano from Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Games of the Week

• Thu Nov. 5 · Navojoa 7, Obregon 8 (LMP, 11, walk-off) · Drama Index 6.78 ★★★★★ · 2 lead changes
• Wed Nov. 4 · Estrellas 12, Aguilas 7 (LIDOM, 10) · Drama Index 6.59 ★★★★★ · 2 lead changes
• Fri Nov. 6 · Tigres 2, Tiburones 3 (LVBP, 11, walk-off) · Drama Index 6.04 ★★★★★ · 1 lead change

Awards

Pos	AL	NL
P	Tanner Bibee Guardians	Nolan McLean Mets
C	Dillon Dingler Tigers	Gabriel Moreno D-backs
1B	Christian Walker Astros	Matt Olson Braves
2B	Cole Young Mariners	Brice Turang Brewers
3B	Caleb Durbin Red Sox	Alex Bregman Cubs
SS	Taylor Walls Rays	Geraldo Perdomo D-backs
LF	Cody Bellinger Yankees	Jackson Chourio Brewers
CF	Ceddanne Rafaela Red Sox	Pete Crow-Armstrong Cubs
RF	Wilyer Abreu Red Sox	Corbin Carroll D-backs
UT	Ezequiel Duran Rangers	Mauricio Dubón Braves

How our forecast works

A forecast here is the chance that the home team wins a game, worked out from team ratings, home field and, in MLB, the two starting pitchers.

It is not betting advice, and it does not know lineups, injuries or weather.

How it works

Every forecast is built in the steps below. Each step adds rating points to the home team’s side of the gap and the chance is worked out again, so the last step is exactly the chance that is published and recorded. Nothing is rounded between steps; a chance is rounded to a whole percent only when it is printed.

Step 1: a rating for every club

Every club has one number, its rating, and the average is 1500. When nothing else is counted, a club that is D points ahead of its opponent has a chance of 1 / (1 + 10^(−D / 400)) of winning. This is an Elo rating.

Rating gap	0	25	50	100	200
Chance of the stronger club	50%	54%	57%	64%	76%

A club the model has not seen yet starts at 1500.

Step 2: home field

The home team gets H extra points on top of the gap before the chance is worked out. H is 24 points in MLB and 32 points in the winter leagues. Between two equal clubs that gives the home team 53.4% in MLB and 54.6% in the winter leagues.

Home-field advantage is real but small. In the games the fit learned from, the home team won 53.9% in MLB and 54.9% in the winter leagues. A game at a neutral site, such as the Caribbean Series, has no home-field step: neither club gets the points.

Step 3: the starting pitcher

In the winter leagues the starters are not counted: a winter pitcher has about ten starts to judge him by, and the announced starters are often missing from the data. In MLB the starter adds points, in five steps.

• FIP puts a pitcher’s season in one number, the runs per nine innings he would have allowed from what he controls: (13 × HR + 3 × (BB + HBP) − 2 × K) / IP + a constant. The constant makes the league’s FIP equal the league’s ERA, so FIP reads like ERA. We work it out ourselves from the pitcher’s numbers.
• This season and last season are put together. Last season’s numbers count at a weight of 0.5.
• Regression to the mean pulls the number toward the league’s: 300 innings of a league-average pitcher are added to his record. A pitcher with 20 innings keeps 6% of his own FIP, one with 200 innings keeps 40%.
• The club’s usual starter is the average of that number for the starters of its last 20 games. A club’s rating already holds its usual rotation, so only the difference from the usual starter counts.
• The difference becomes points: (usual FIP − tonight’s FIP) × the league’s average innings per start (5.19) / 9 is runs per game, and each run per game is worth 150 points, about 20 percentage points of chance.

Example: a starter at 2.80 against a usual starter at 3.90 is 1.10 runs per nine innings, × 5.19 / 9 = 0.634 runs per game, × 150 = 95.1 points for his club.

A starter who is not announced, or an opener (a pitcher who started under half of the games he pitched in), counts as the club’s usual starter: 0 points.

Step 4: one game, step by step

Tigres at Leones is the first game of Nov. 7, 2026 in the record, the latest day with a forecast. Each step adds its points to the home team’s side of the gap and the chance is worked out again.

• Start: 50%. Every game begins as a coin flip.
• Ratings: Leones is 13.2 points behind Tigres. Chance 48%.
• Home field: +32.0 points for Leones. The gap is now +18.8. Chance 53%.

The same walk as one line:

Built from: 50% → ratings 48% → home field 53% · starters not counted in winter ball

From the ratings and home field alone, Leones was expected to win 53%. It won, so its rating moves by K × (1 − 0.527) = 8 × 0.473 = +3.8 points and Tigres’s by −3.8.

Step 5: after the game

A rating moves by K × (result − expectation). The result is 1 for a win and 0 for a loss. The expectation is the chance from the ratings and home field alone: starters do not move ratings, so a club is not credited twice for a good pitcher. The opponent moves by the same amount the other way. K is 5 in MLB and 8 in the winter leagues.

Example with K = 5: a home team expected to win 60% gains 5 × (1 − 0.6) = 2 points when it wins and loses 5 × 0.6 = 3 points when it loses.

Step 6: a new season

At a season’s first game every rating gives back a share r of its distance to 1500. r is 33% in MLB and 50% in the winter leagues. Clubs change over the winter and the model knows nothing about the moves, so it forgets part of what it learned. The winter leagues have their own r.

Example: with r at 33%, a rating of 1560 goes back to 1540.2.

Step 7: a series

The chance of winning a playoff series (so far a winter league’s final) is counted exactly from the chances of the games still to be played, in the order of home games the schedule gives, for example 2-3-2 in a best of seven. Every way the games can go is added up, so the number is not a simulation.

A series gets a number only when the schedule lists its length, its state and every game it can still have, “if necessary” games included. When the schedule does not say, nothing is guessed.

The Caribbean Series is a tournament at one site, and each of its clubs comes from a league: it carries the rating of that league’s champion, and a club with no league of ours starts at 1500. Home field goes only to the club of the host country, in its own games; every other game is on neutral ground. A semifinal and the final are one game each, so the title chances are a product of single games: a club’s chance to win its semifinal, times, for each club it could meet in the final, the chance that club gets there and the chance to beat it, added up. Nothing is simulated.

Step 8: checking the forecasts

Every forecast is checked against the result, and the check is counted from the record alone: the forecasts as they were written before the game, never worked out again with today’s numbers.

• The Brier score is the average of (forecast − result)², with the result 1 for a home win and 0 for a loss. 0 is perfect and 0.25 is a coin flip. A forecast of 60% scores 0.16 when it comes true and 0.36 when it does not.
• Two simple rules to beat: the coin flip, which always says 50% (0.25), and “the home team always wins”, which always says the home team’s share of wins in the fit (53.9% in MLB and 54.9% in the winter leagues).
• Calibration sorts the games into bands by the favorite’s chance and compares each band’s average forecast with how often the favorite won.
• A backtest scores the model on seasons the fit never saw.

Only finished games count. A forecast counts if it was written before the first pitch, and the last one written before the first pitch is the one kept. A cancelled or tied game stays in the record and is not scored. After a game only its result is added: nothing in the record is deleted or changed.

Step 9: where K, H, r, R and W come from

A fit tries a grid of values and keeps the combination with the smallest Brier score on the training seasons: first the team’s numbers (K, H, r), then the pitcher’s (R, W). Each season in the fit is replayed the way a live run is: everyone starts at 1500, and the Brier score counts only after the same settling, two seasons for MLB and one for the winter leagues.

MLB is fitted on Retrosheet’s games and the winter leagues on MLB Stats API results; the seasons used are in the table. The winter leagues share one K, one H and one r.

Number	MLB	Winter
K (points per surprise)	5	8
H (home field, points)	24	32
r (pull toward 1500)	33%	50%
R (innings of regression)	300	–
W (points per run)	150	–
Last season’s weight	0.5	–
Innings per start	5.19	–
Home team won	53.9%	54.9%
Fitted on	2000–2019 and 2021	2016–2023
Tested on	2022–2025	2024–2025
Fitted	Oct. 29, 2026	Oct. 29, 2026

The fit repeats itself: MLB whenever the site’s history is rebuilt, the winter leagues after each winter season ends. Every forecast in the record carries the version of the numbers it was made with.

Calibration

Do the favorites win as often as we say? Games are put in bands by the favorite’s chance, and each band shows the average chance we gave and how often the favorite won.

Favorite’s chance	Games	Average forecast	Favorite won	Share
50-55%	27	52.4%	16	59%
55-60%	17	56.9%	11	65%
60-65%	3	61.5%	3	100%
65-70%	0	–	–	–
70% and up	0	–	–	–

A band holds favorite chances from its low edge up to, not including, its high edge. A game at exactly 50% has no favorite: it is counted in the first band and never as a win for the favorite.

What the model does not know

• Lineups and rest days: who plays tonight and who sits.
• Injuries and roster moves. A rating learns only from results, so a trade or an injury shows up only after the games.
• Bullpens: who is rested or tired, and who pitches after the starter.
• Weather, ballpark and umpire.
• Moves over the winter. A new season only brings every rating part of the way back to 1500.
• Winter-league starters: they are not counted.
• Betting odds and other people’s forecasts: none are used. Only MLB Stats API results and Retrosheet’s history go in.
• How a game is going. The win probability and the Drama Index in the Daily describe a game while it is played, with a different model; a forecast is made before the first pitch.

Data and sources

Results, schedules, announced starters and pitchers’ numbers come from the MLB Stats API.

The MLB model is fitted on Retrosheet’s play-by-play history, which the site builds into its own data, and the winter leagues’ model on MLB Stats API results.

Each forecast in the record carries the version of the numbers it was made with. The numbers now in use:

• MLB: version 4070baad, fitted Oct. 29, 2026.
• Winter: version b099bc3c, fitted Oct. 29, 2026.

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

News

• Braves News: Casey Mize rumor, player reviews, more — Yahoo Sports
• Niagara Ironbacks name Marriott assistant GM — Canadian Baseball Network
• Around the Empire: Bombers to meet with 18-year-old NPB ace — Yahoo Sports
• Goldeyes acquire Wright, sign Yakel — Canadian Baseball Network

Transactions & Rumors

• “Multiple Teams” Showing Interest In Ty France — MLB Trade Rumors
• Braves were reportedly “linked” to Casey Mize at 2026 Trade Deadline — Yahoo Sports
• Ryan O’Hearn’s Adjustments In Pittsburgh — MLB Trade Rumors
• What does the Washington Nationals extension of Jacob Young mean for Dylan Crews? — Yahoo Sports

Analysis · Prospects (3)

Analysis

• Top Landing Spots for Free Agent David Bednar — Just Baseball
• Top Landing Spots for Free Agent Trevor Rogers — Just Baseball

Prospects

• 2026 Milwaukee Brewers Org Prospect Team — Prospects Live