Santurce 12, Carolina 11 (LBPRC, 10)

Game of the Night: Santurce 12, Carolina 11 (LBPRC, 10)

Continued from page 1

• Drama Index 5.77 ★★★★★ · 2 lead changes · Santurce came back from 2 down · 10 innings · peak leverage 6.23 (bottom 10th)
• Top WPA: David Lebron +0.59 (pitcher) · Brian Navarreto +0.53 (batter) · Anthony García +0.34 (batter)
• Bottom WPA: Trey Braithwaite -0.61 (pitcher) · Yusei Tobita -0.38 (pitcher) · Andrew Velazquez -0.24 (batter)

Watch: Gameday (MLB.com)

Inning	Matchup	Result	Win probability	WPA	LI
Bot 10th	Johnathan Rodríguez vs. David Lebron	Pop Out	CAR 42% → 17%	-0.25	5.96
Top 5th	Brian Rey vs. Joe Riley	Grounded Into DP	SAN 39% → 19%	-0.20	3.48
Bot 10th	Edwin Díaz vs. David Lebron	Flyout	CAR 17% → 0%	-0.17	6.23

Stat Lab Fundamentals · Lesson 4: The infield fly rule

On May 8, 1984: Chicago White Sox 7, Milwaukee Brewers 6. A single run separated the two teams. Games turn on outs as much as on hits, and one rule exists to stop a fielder from stealing an extra out: the infield fly rule.

The idea. A dropped pop-up is normally bad news for the runners: the batter becomes a runner, which forces the others ahead of him, so a fielder who drops it on purpose can pick it up and force out two of them, or even three. The infield fly rule ends the trick. With fewer than two outs and runners on first and second, or on all three bases, a fair fly ball that an infielder could catch with ordinary effort is an infield fly: the umpire calls the batter out at once, caught or not. The ball stays live, and the runners advance at their own risk.

The math. Count the situations. The bases can be occupied in 8 ways and the outs can be 0, 1 or 2, so a half-inning passes through 8 × 3 = 24 base-out situations. The rule needs runners on first and second or on all three bases (2 of the 8) and fewer than two outs (2 of the 3): 2 × 2 = 4 of the 24. With first and second taken, two runners are forced ahead of the batter, so a dropped ball could give the defense two outs whatever the batter does; with two outs, one force out already ends the inning.

The scale. Four situations out of 24, and only for a pop-up an infielder can reach, so the call is rare. The umpire makes it before the ball lands, as soon as it is high enough to judge, and everyone knows the batter is out.

What it doesn’t tell you:

• “Ordinary effort” is the umpire’s judgment, and the ball need not stay in the infield: an outfielder who is playing in the infield counts as an infielder.
• Line drives and bunts are never infield flies, and with runners on first and third only, or on first alone, the rule is off even for a pop-up.
• The batter is out whether the ball is caught or dropped. The runners are no longer forced, but they may tag up after a catch or run at their own risk.

Try it. Next time a pop-up goes up with runners on first and second, listen for the umpire’s call and watch the runners: they stay put or tag up.

Go deeper: MLB Glossary: infield fly · MLB Glossary: force play

News

• Glew – BWDIK: Bay, Halladay, Lopez, Peters, Romano, Smith — Canadian Baseball Network

Transactions & Rumors

• Looking For A Match In A Steven Kwan Trade — MLB Trade Rumors
• Tigers Scouted Teruaki Sato, Kaima Taira; Showed Past Interest In Shota Imanaga — MLB Trade Rumors

Analysis (3)

Analysis

• Is Now the Time for the Red Sox To Move on From Trevor Story? — Just Baseball
• Gold Gloves and Offense — Baseball Musings
• Top Landing Spots for Free Agent Alec Bohm — Just Baseball