Sun, Oct. 25 · 13 finals around the world · Stat Lab #32: wRC+: park-adjusted hitting, with 100 as average · 5-min read
Press time 11:19 CET
- World Series: TB-MIL: Brewers lead 2-0
- Tonight: 1 game · first pitch Tue 01:00 CET
- Stat Lab #32: wRC+: park-adjusted hitting, with 100 as average
- Jump to: Tonight · Preview · Bracket · Game of the Night · Stat Lab · World · Web · Terms · Sources
Tonight (CET)
Mon, Oct. 26 · 1 game · none before 23:00 CET · starters as of 11:18 CET
| Matchup | Start CET (ET) | Series | Away SP | Home SP | Stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL 103-59 @ TB 98-64 | Tue 01:00 (8:00 p.m.) | WS G3 of 7 MIL leads 2-0 | Robert Gasser 3.87 · 4.23 · 14.7% · 109.1 | Freddy Peralta 4.42 · 4.28 · 12.7% · 169.0 | — |
Postseason Preview
World Series (best of seven) · first pitch Tue, Oct. 27, 01:00 CET (8:00 p.m. ET).
Rays at Brewers
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Pythag W-L | Last 10 | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 103-59 | +214 | 103-59 | 8-2 | W5 |
| Rays | 98-64 | +86 | 90-72 | 5-5 | L1 |
Game 3: Tue, Oct. 27, 01:00 CET (8:00 p.m. ET) · run-differential edge: Brewers by 128.
The Bracket
Wild Card Series (best of three, every game at the higher seed)
- AL: White Sox at Astros: White Sox win 2-0.
- AL: Red Sox at Yankees: Yankees win 2-0.
- NL: Phillies at Braves: Braves win 2-1.
- NL: Cubs at Padres: Padres win 2-0.
Division Series (best of five)
- AL: Yankees at Rays: Rays win 3-0.
- AL: White Sox at Guardians: Guardians win 3-2.
- NL: Padres at Brewers: Brewers win 3-1.
- NL: Braves at Dodgers: Dodgers win 3-1.
Championship Series (best of seven)
- AL: Guardians at Rays: Rays win 4-2.
- NL: Dodgers at Brewers: Brewers win 4-0.
World Series (best of seven)
- Rays at Brewers: Brewers lead 2-0 · Game 3: Tue, Oct. 27, 01:00 CET (8:00 p.m. ET) · history: up 2-0 in a best-of-seven, 79 of 95 won the series.
Game of the Night: Hermosillo 5, Mexicali 6 (LMP, 11, walk-off)
- Drama Index 4.98 ★★★★★ · 4 lead changes · Mexicali came back from 2 down · 11 innings · peak leverage 6.27 (top 9th)
- Top WPA: Phillip Evans +0.35 (batter) · Luis Durango +0.35 (batter) · Alex D. Mejia +0.29 (batter)
- Bottom WPA: Juan Gámez -0.35 (pitcher) · Colten Brewer -0.25 (pitcher) · Jesus Cruz -0.24 (pitcher)
Watch: Gameday (MLB.com)
| Inning | Matchup | Result | Win probability | WPA | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 9th | Luis Durango vs. Jesus Cruz | Single | HER 16% → 50% | +0.33 | 6.27 |
| Bot 8th | Phillip Evans vs. Juan Gámez | Home Run | MXC 53% → 84% | +0.32 | 2.42 |
| Bot 11th | Alex D. Mejia vs. Colten Brewer | Single | MXC 71% → 100% | +0.29 | 4.23 |
Stat Lab · Lesson 32: wRC+: park-adjusted hitting, with 100 as average
Yordan Alvarez’s season wOBA is .429, and hitters with that wOBA usually carry a wRC+ near 175. His is 181. The extra 6.0 points are, mostly, his ballparks talking.
The idea. wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) turns wOBA, built on linear weights, into runs created per plate appearance and compares them with the league average, adjusted for the hitter’s parks and league. 100 is exactly average; 120 is 20 percent better, 80 is 20 percent worse. wRAA turns the same wOBA into runs above average but takes the park as it comes. Coors Field in Denver, a mile above sea level, is the classic hitter’s park, and wRC+ discounts what Rockies hitters do there. OPS+ does a similar job for OPS.
The math. Once park and league are fixed, wRC+ is a straight line in wOBA. So fit one line through every hitter, weighted by plate appearances: this season it puts a .317 wOBA at 100, and each 10 points of wOBA add 6.7 points of wRC+. For Yordan Alvarez: 100 + (.429 − .317) ÷ .010 × 6.7 = 100 + 11.2 × 6.7 = 175.0. His real wRC+ is 181, 6.0 points above the line. What the line misses is mostly the park, plus a little league adjustment. The proof that it is the park: his club’s 18 hitters with 100-plus plate appearances, him included, sit 3.1 points above the line on average. They share his home park.
The scale. Yordan Alvarez’s 181 means he created runs at a rate 81 percent better than an average hitter, after the park adjustment. Among the 176 hitters with 450-plus plate appearances, 89% sit within 5 points of the line, so a gap of 6.0 points is rare. By club, the Rockies sit furthest below it (−13.2 on average) and the Mariners furthest above (+8.1).
What it doesn’t tell you:
- His wRAA, which skips the park, is +62.7 runs. wRAA counts runs as they happened; only wRC+ compares hitters from different parks.
- Park factors are multi-season estimates for all kinds of hitters; a left-handed pull hitter may gain or lose more than the factor says.
- wRC+ measures hitting only: no baserunning, no defense, no credit for a hard position.
Try it. On any leaderboard that shows both wOBA and wRC+, find two hitters with the same wOBA and different wRC+ figures. Then look up where each plays his home games.
Go deeper: MLB Glossary: wRC+ · FanGraphs Library: wRC and wRC+ · MLB Glossary: park factor
Check yourself
- Q1. What does Yordan Alvarez’s wRC+ of 181 say in plain words?
- Q2. A hitter posts a .340 wOBA in a pitcher’s park and another a .340 wOBA in a hitter’s park. Who has the higher wRC+?
- Q3. Is wRAA park-adjusted?
Show answers
- A1. He created runs 81 percent better than an average hitter, per plate appearance, after adjusting for his parks and league.
- A2. The one in the pitcher’s park. Runs are harder to create there, so wRC+ gives him more credit for the same wOBA.
- A3. No. wRAA converts wOBA into runs above average as they happened; wRC+ is the park- and league-adjusted rate.
Around the World
- CPBL (Taiwan): Brothers 4, Dragons 3 (Taiwan Series Game 5)
- Dominican Winter League: Estrellas 12, Gigantes 6 ★★★ · Aguilas 9, Tigres 5 ★★★ · Leones 15, Toros 11 ★★★
- Venezuelan Winter League: Caribes 9, Tiburones 3 ★★★★ · Leones 8, Navegantes 3 (10) ★★★★ · Tigres 2, Cardenales 6 ★★ · Aguilas 6, Bravos 1 ★★
- Mexican Pacific League: Guasave 4, Culiacan 2 ★★★★ · Jalisco 4, Mazatlan 5 (walk-off) ★★★★ · Los Mochis 2, Obregon 1 (10) ★★★★ · Nayarit 0, Navojoa 5 (shutout) ★★
Around the Web
News
- With World Series start, Gasser is living his dream — and his dad’s — MLB.com
- Milwaukee still loves him, but Peralta will try beating the Brewers in World Series Game 3 — AP via NBC Sports
- Four things that need to happen for Rays to overcome 2-0 World Series deficit vs. Brewers — CBS Sports
- Sal Frelick, the Brewers’ 5-9 spark plug, bashes a big blast that echoes back to B.C. — The Athletic (subscription)
Transactions & Rumors
- Rocco Baldelli Withdraws Name From Mariners’ Managerial Search — MLB Trade Rumors
- Trade Candidate: Teoscar Hernandez — MLB Trade Rumors
Analysis · Listen (7)
Analysis
- The Brewers, the Rays, and the Pumping of Tires — FanGraphs
- BWB 027 – Mike’s Date — Pitcher List
- There Is No Defending Some of the Defense We Saw in Game 2 of the World Series — FanGraphs
- Brewers Inch Out Another Win, Feet Ahead — Baseball Prospectus (subscription)
Listen
- Rays must find mojo to keep Crew from cruising — MLB Morning Lineup · 12 min
- TAMPA BAY STUNNED IN GAME 2 LOSS – Rays Big Early Lead Lost in Brewers Victory — Locked On MLB · 34 min
- Brewers STUN Rays With 4-Run Comeback! | How Can Tampa Bay Turn Things Around? — Rates & Barrels · 36 min
Terms in This Post
Drama Index · Leverage Index (LI) · Win Probability Added (WPA) · every term in the Glossary
Sources & Notes
Built automatically from MLB Stats API and CPBL Stats data; numbers through Oct. 25, 2026, with FIP, xFIP, WAR and wRC+ up to a day behind. The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”. How this site works